IT’S HERE!
Well, sorta.
As the Phillies take part in their traditional spring training opener with their bitter rival that is the Florida State Seminoles, here is their first official lineup of the 2011 season.
LINEUP
Victorino CF, Polanco 2B, Ibanez DH, Howard 1B, Francisco LF, D. Brown RF, Ruiz C, Orr 2B, Valdez SS
Notable Absences: SS Rollins, 2B Utley
PITCHING
Starting Pitcher: D. Naylor
Bullpen: E. Bonine, J. Perez, J. De Fratus, M. Stutes, M. Schwimer, S. Mathieson
Now that the Phillies have not only clinched a playoff birth, but have also locked up yet another NL East crown and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, it’s time to erase the next week of meaningless baseball from our memory and actually focus on what’s important.
Yes folks, would be the Phillies fourth straight appearance in the postseason.
As I said in my last post, I would break down the potential playoff roster once everything was clinched. Well, I am a man of my word, and since the Phillies 2010 playoffopener will officially be played Wed, October 7th with an opponent that will TBD, it looks like it is about time to see how the current 33-man roster will dwindle down to 25 once the NLDS starts.
PITCHERS (11): In this breakdown, I have the Phillies keeping four starters and eight relievers. In reality, with the way the schedule looks as of right now (Games on Wed, Fri, Sun, Mon, Wed.), they will most likely use three starters, in which Doc should be ready to go if a fourth game is needed on 4-days rest. With that said, Joe Blanton will most likely be on the playoff roster as a possible 4th game starter, and if not, a middle-reliever if need be. With Blanton on the roster, along with Danys Baez, who was signed to a deal in the off-season basically to give this team another veteran hard-throwing RHP for the month of October, that means both David Herndon and Kyle Kendrick will be left off, as their normal spot on the 25-man roster should be fulfilled by a second LHP as you will see below. I also project Cole Hamels to start game 2, so he will have the opportunity to pitch at Citizens Bank Park in front of a home crowd, something that worked quite well with him in the last two previous postseasons.
SP: Roy Halladay (Game 1 Starter)
SP: Cole Hamels (Game 2/3 Starter)
SP: Roy Oswalt (Game 2/3 Starter)
SP: Joe Blanton (Game 4 Starter/Middle Reliever)
RHP: Chad Durbin
RHP: Danys Baez
RHP: Jose Contreras
LHP: J.C Romero
LHP: Antonio Bastardo
Setup: Ryan Madson
Closer: Brad Lidge
CATCHERS (2)
This is pretty simple. In a 5-game series, barring injury concerns, there is no need to have three catchers on the roster. With Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz and primary backup Brian Schneider, fortunately, there aren’t any of those concerns. With that said, look for the Phillies to keep a veteran backstop, that being Paul Hoover, in the bullpen as a nice little security blanket close by if the injury bug bites in the NLDS.
C: Carlos Ruiz
C: Brian Schneider
INFIELDERS (7): Aside from the normal starters and Wilson Valdez, Phillies management has some tough decisions to make on this end. Do they keep an extra outfielder with speed such as Domonic Brown or John Mayberry Jr. instead of Greg Dobbs, who would usually be a shoe-in to play in the postseason if not for his struggles this season? At this point, in a NLDS 5-game series, I think yes. Also, the mid-season addition of Mike Sweeney limits the need for Dobbs as the combination of he, Vladez, Ross Gload have proven that they are able to play the positions that Dobbs can at an even higher level.
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Placido Polanco
UTIL: Ross Gload
UTIL: Mike Sweeney
UTIL: Wilson Valdez
OUTFIELDERS (5): Another tough one here. Aside from the everyday starters and Ben Francisco, the final outfield spot comes down to three guys. Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., and yet again, Greg Dobbs. As a stated before, Dobbs’s lackluster performance this year really leaves him in a difficult position to make the postseason roster in any capacity. When it comes down to Dobbs and Mayberry, the biggest thing here is need. If the Phillies take Mayberry, that leaves only one possible LH situational hitter (Gload) on the bench. While it does depend on who they play in the NLDS, I don’t see Charlie Manuel and company feeling comfortable with that regardless of the opponent. I just don’t. Along with that rationale, taking Brown along for the postseason ride would go a long way towards giving him the proper experience that would allow him to properly implant Jayson Werth in the Phillies outfield once Werth bolts for the allure of dollar signs come the offseason.
RF: Jayson Werth
CF: Shane Victorino
LF: Raul Ibanez
OF: Ben Francisco
OF: Domonic Brown
Well, that was my stab at it. The two toughest calls here are obviously the battle of the last utility spot between Brown, Mayberry, and Dobbs and the decision of who’s going to be the 11th pitcher between Baez, Kendrick, and Durbin.
While I know the anticipation is killing all of you, the good news is that you only have to wait until next Wed. to find out.
It’s August 7th, and with 15 disabled-list stints, an inconsistent offense, and without any semblance of a bullpen, the Phillies are just one game behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL East lead.
Baseball is a strange game.
Although, if their recent play is any indication, the adjective “strange” may be an understatement.
In the last 2 1/2 weeks or so where all-stars Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Ryan Howard have been out of action for the good majority of the time, the Phillies are 13-2 in their last 15 games and have successfully creeped back into the pennant race.
Tell me how that makes sense.
Now, I didn’t have much doubt that Phillies would be back in the hunt at this point of the season, but the way the players on the field are fueling this sudden rennisance with three superstars on the DL is what will make the last 55 games of the regular season all that more special.
That is if the Phillies make the postseason of course.
Here are three guys that are helping to make that ultimate goal seem possible with their elevated play.
C Carlos Ruiz
A streaky hitter by trait, “Chooch” is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball right now. By that, I mean he’s raised his batting average 35 points in the last 11 games. While he doesn’t have that many overall at-bats because of an injury that kept him out of action almost a month, that’s still an astonishing jump when you think about it. In addition to that, Ruiz leads the team in hitting with runners in scoring position, is the Phillies second-leading hitter overall (.302 BA is second to Placido Polanco) in terms of average, and is hitting at a scorching hot .454 clip (20-for-44) in his last 10 games. He’s also hit three of his five HR’s this season during that stretch for good measure.
OF Raul Ibanez
For all those who thought the 38-year old was washed up at the end up June when he was hitting a season-low .227, it’s time for you to go crawl into a corner. Actually, I’ll come join you. To prove all the doubters like myself wrong, all Ibanez has done in the past five weeks is raise his average an impressive 47 points (to a season-high .274), and solidified his status as an integral part to the middle of the order. Recently, he’s been even more impressive. During his present 14-game hitting streak (a season high), Ibanez is hitting .431 (22-51), with 3 HR and 13 RBI’s. Coincidentally, the Phillies are 12-2 during that stretch.
P Kyle Kendrick
Can’t believe I am actually casting Kendrick in this positive of a light, but since his short demotion last month to Triple-A Lehigh Valley he’s been downright phenomenal. As the much-maligned member of the rotation by default (Jamie Moyer’s injury), Kendrick has gone 2-0 in his last three starts, with just 4 ER given up in 19.1 IP, a figure that good for a sub 2.00 ERA. He’s the fifth starter for crying out loud. You can’t expect much better from Kendrick than that.
Before this post about “unsung heroes” of the Phillies most recent play is over and done with, you can’t talk about guys making outstanding contributions without mentioning Placido Polanco. His gold-glove and all-star pedigree makes him impossible to be unsung, but his worth to the lineup, with or without the injured players who are sidelined, needs to be noted. I was a huge proponent of keeping Pedro Feliz in the fold instead of any other FA third basemen during the off-season, but Polanco’s .321 BA, stout defense at both 2nd and 3rd base, leadership capabilities, and recent hot-hitting (has hit safely in 14 of his last 16 games with .400+ BA during that span) has made me rethink my initial stance.
The injury bug has been present all-season long in the Phillies clubhouse.
Want proof?
Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Madson, Joe Blanton, Carlos Ruiz, Chad Durbin, J.C Romero, Brian Schneider, Antonio Bastardo and the recently departed J.A Happ have all already spent time on the disabled list. That’s 14 disabled list casualties among the projected 25-man roster for this team at the beginning of the season. For some (Rollins, Victorino, Lidge), their individual stint has even turned into stint(s).
Pluralities are never good when talking about injuries.
However, with Utley and Victorino still on the DL, and Raul Ibanez dealing with a wrist injury, Philadelphia’s injury issues were put under an even greater microscope Sunday after slugger Ryan Howard sprained his ankle sliding into second base.
Ryan Howard's ankle injury is the most recent cause of concern regarding the Phillies.
For the Phillies, losing Howard for a long duration of time may affect the chemistry for this team more than any other injury this season. Bold statement aside, I am not questioning the value of Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins to this team by ranking them under Howard in this comparison of order of importance. They are both all-star caliber players, and they obviously both have very important (and different) roles on this team. With that said, losing a guy who is involved in plating or scoring almost a quarter of the offense’s runs over the course of a season and is one of the biggest threats in baseball with what he can do with one swing of the bat would be absolutely detrimental to the Phillies playoff hopes is in 2010.
The good news?
Nothing’s broken. Howard’s MRI immediately following Sunday’s contest against the Nationals revealed no broken or fractured bones in his ankle, ruling out a possible surgical procedure that would lengthen a DL visit.
The bad news?
This injury, one that was earlier categorized as “a couple day thing” by manager Charlie Manuel on Sunday, may be more severe than we all, including the skipper, originally anticipated. After Howard left Nationals park on Sunday on crutches, it was announced late Monday night by MLB.COM’s Todd Zolecki that instead of traveling with the team to Florida for the Phillies series against the Marlins, Howard would be going to Philadelphia to meet with team doctors about the status of his ankle.
The scenario.
If the doctors conclude that he the condition of the ankle is improving, he’ll fly down to Florida himself, and rejoin the team (maybe not in a active role right away) on Wednesday. On the other side of the spectrum, if the pain and the swollen nature of the injury does not subside substantially (which it hasn’t as of late Monday night) in the next 12-24 hours, then it is very likely that Howard will end up on the 15-day DL, retroactive to Sunday, August 1st.
Sadly, my intuition tells me the ladder might for in store for the Phillies, which if you look at them right now, are a team that can ill-afford the reality of an injury like that to a player like Howard while being in the middle of a pennant race.
“FOR YOUR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, BATTING SIXTH, STARTING IN RIGHT FIELD, NUMBER NINE, DOMONIC BROWNNNN.”
Getting chills just thinking about it.
After placing Shane Victorino on the 15-day DL because of a strained oblique, the move that has been anticipated for virtually the entire 2010 season was finally made.
” The Phillies have purchased the contract of OF Domonic Brown.”
Impact of Brown’s Promotion
OF Dom Brown's debut with the Phillies has arrived.
While I wish the move didn’t have to come at the expense of Shane Victorino, I’m never going to complain when the Phillies add a potential 5-tool player to their roster. As I said in my previous post, this may not be the best situation or timing for Brown to make his debut. The team is back in the middle of a pennant race, the pressure to produce in Philadelphia is at a all-time high, and the Phillies now have the added responsibility of figuring out Brown’s role on this team and in the clubhouse.
If they already didn’t have enough to worry about when they were just trying to acquire Roy Oswalt or another SP, a UTIL INF, or a lefty arm out of the bullpen..
But, whether we like it or not, the time has come. Calling Brown up now means he’s here for the long haul.
And by long haul, I mean more like years or decades rather than days or months.
Right now though, I’ll be the first one to admit that Brown’s promotion should be viewed as a saving grace of sorts. Until Shane Victorino comes back from his disabled list stint, it’s almost a certainty that Brown will assume the role as the everyday RF, which will give him a perfect opportunity to make his transition to the big leagues by getting regular at-bats. With Brown’s supreme talent, you won’t see much of a drop-off in production even with Victorino gone.
And that’s saying alot.
So, with Brown settled in RF, that means Jayson Werth, who barring a huge move, will remain a member of the Philadelphia Phillies for the rest of the season because of his explosive offensive ability and defensive versatility (can play all three OF positions), will move over to CF to account for the loss of the Flyin’ Hawaiian.
Once Victorino comes back though, that’s where the work begins, as it is unclear what the Phillies will do with Brown. There is no doubt that he will stay up in the big leagues, but Charlie Manuel may have to do a little shuffling to make sure that he does nothinder the growth of his beloved top prospect.
Here’s a potential proposal (Full Week, 7-Game Schedule).
Raul Ibanez (4 Games in LF), Shane Victorino (5 Games CF), Jayson Werth (4 Games RF, 2 Game CF), Domonic (3 Games RF, 1 Game LF), Ben Francisco (2 Game LF).
May not be completely accurate, but you can bet the Phillies do something like this. Keeping a 38-year old Raul Ibanez fresh and Victorino healthy as he gets off the disabled list is just as important of a process as giving Domonic Brown regular at-bats at this point.
A process that will start on Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park when #9 steps onto the outfield grass as he debuts in Phillies red-pinstripes.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Oswalt + Other Trade Notes
: Since Jayson Werth will most likely stay in Philly for the remainder of the season, a deal for Roy Oswalt will have to include some combination of J.A Happ and top young prospects in order to get done. If a deal goes down though, I say it looks like this scenario.
Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia for J.A Happ and at least two of Vance Worley/Scott Mathieson/Anthony Gose/Jonathan Singleton.
: If the Phillies strike out (no pun intended) on Oswalt, here are two other names that seem hot right now as being linked to the Phillies. Chicago’s Ted Lilly and Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona.
So much for struggling.
Winners of their last six straight, the Philadelphia Phillies have cut the Atlanta Braves seven-game lead in the division last week right in half.
That’s right, 3.5 Games.
That deficit can be erased in a series, let alone two months, so to say that the Phillies are back to being contenders is an understatement.
With that said, recent injuries to SS Jimmy Rollins and OF Shane Victorino have overshadowed this recent win streak and enhanced the already strong rumors surrounding personnel changes in the home clubhouse at Citizens Bank Park.
First off, the Rollins injury.
With a negative MRI only showing a contusion after fouling a ball off his ankle, it doesn’t look like J-Roll will be out of the fold for long. A couple games, a week at most. But, with this being Jimmy’s 3rd relatively significant injury this season, along with 2B Chase Utley being out until September, the call for infield depth is growing by the day.
As much as people should appreciate what Wilson Valdez has done throughout the entire season, the honeymoon with him and the Phillies organization is over. At some point, you can’t deny the stats. Due to the fact that he’s hit .217 since June 28th (when he assumed a regular role as Utley’s replacement) and that he grounds into a double-play once 12.9 AB (a rate that is far and away tops in MLB), he really can’t fit into the Phillies equation as anything more than a above-average defensive or pinch-running substitution off the bench.
So who do the Phillies get?
Looking through the guys who have been subject to the majority of trade rumors, it seems like Baltimore SS Miguel Tejada may be the best fit. As former perennial all-star on the back end of his career who is tucked away on the roster of one of the worst teams in baseball, he might not sound all that intriguing. The truth of the matter is, his relatively cheap 2.5 million dollar salary for the remainder of the season along with his ability to play both positions on the left side of the infield are both extremely attractive. Plus, it doesn’t seem that it would take that much (maybe two MLB ready prospects) to pry him away from the Orioles organization, which is obviously in a rebuild mode and has two solid, young prospects in SS Robert Andino and 3B Josh Bell putting up great numbers in Triple-A Norfolk, waiting for an extended opportunity in the show.
If that doesn’t pan out, other guys who have been linked to the Phillies in recent weeks are Baltimore Orioles INF Ty Wigginton, Washington Nationals INF Christian Guzman, Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Kelly Johnson, Oakland Athletics SS Mark Ellis, and Seattle Mariners INF Felipe Lopez.
If Rollins does come back in a couple days though like he said he will, this is just a secondary issue.
Now onto something more pressing.
Shane’s injury.
Victorino’s injured oblique makes the OF situation for the Phillies very confusing. While an MRI will clear up some of those complications, the calls for bringing up uber-prospect Domonic Brown still have to be approaching a near endless volume.
Has his play deserved a promotion?
In one word, yes.
Is Werth here to stay?
But, for a young guy who figures to be a cornerstone in the Citizens Bank Park outfield grass for the next decade, I’m not sure that the Phillies front office will want to make his anticipated big league arrival a temporary one. If Brown is called up to fill up a roster-spot if Victorino takes an extended trip to bench and lands on the DL or assumes a partial starting role (See my A Sudden Surge post for a platoon proposition) if Jayson Werth is traded, then okay, that’s understandable.
However, if the injury to the Flyin’ Hawaiian is mild, and Jayson Werth remains in a Phillies uniform, then don’t be surprised if the Phillies make up for Victorino’s absence without calling up Brown. Right now, a Ben Francisco/Ross Gload Platoon in RF (Francisco against LHP, Gload against RHP) with Werth moving over to CF and calling up a guy with big league experience like John Mayberry Jr. as an extra right-handed bat who can play both corner-outfield positions may be the proper move to keep atmosphere in the Phillies clubhouse a positive one.
Along those lines, even if it means holding back his rare talent, it may be the right decision to have Brown wait to make his first big league contribution until after September 1st when the rosters expand. That may seem crazy considering Brown’s hype, and all the speculation that has surrounded Werth’s alleged departure from Philadelphia over the last couple months, but at the end of the day, the goal for this team remains the same.
As Charlie Manuel mentioned Tuesday in an interview with the 610 WIP Midday Show crew of Glen Macnow and Anthony Gargano, that goal is to return to the World Series. Lofty, I know. The Phillies recent play of late though has indicated that there is still somewhat of a possibility to return to that type of prominence, and losing a valuable offensive weapon like Werth to a trade combined with the losses to Rollins and Victorino could potentially cripple the momentum that has been built over the last week.
The trickle down effect of this.
Keeping Werth will mean a trade for Roy Oswalt is unlikely.
Yes, the Phillies could still obtain Oswalt in a package that includes something resembling J.A Happ, Vance Worley, and two top 10 prospects (Philadelphia Inquirer’s Bob Brookover repports that Anthony Gose and Jonathan Singleton may be on the Astros wish list), but something tells me Ruben Amaro won’t be too keen on giving up that much.
Especially for a pitcher with chronic back issues who wants a 16 million dollar option picked up in 2012 while sporting a 6-12 record this season.
While there is little doubt that Oswalt is better than his record indicates, there is also little doubt that if he’s not healthy now, odds are that he won’t be healthy when it is time to pay him that chunk of change either.
So, even if you are still calling for pitching help (as you should), just don’t forget that.
Out of all the things that are up for discussion, debate, or argument regarding the first half of the Philadelphia Phillies 2010 season, one thing is for certain.
They went into the all-star break on a high note.
Sure, they may have only scored two runs combined in their final two games, and Roy Halladay may have pitched a nine inning shutout and got a no-decision in the outing, but the end result saw four game sweep against the NL Central leading Cincinnati Reds, with Phillies and the hometown fans at Citizens Bank Park being the beneficiaries of three consecutive walkoff wins.
Do the Phillies have enough resiliency to return to glory?
Not bad for a team that has dealt with more injuries than any team in professional baseball not named the Boston Red Sox, a six-week offensive slump, and had their season literally hanging on life support last week after losing a series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates
On paper, the Phillies may look like they have underachieved for the first half of the season. As the NL champs and frontrunners to return to another World Series, being in third place and 4.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East with a 47-40 record going into the break doesn’t live up to expectations. However, if you have watched this team or read The Philly Phour, you understand that their is a common silver lining when you take into account all that is happened in the first 87 games. Looking at the reasons stated previously, things could obviously be much worse. Taking into account the injuries, the slump in May/June, and the three losses to Pirates last week first hand, it’s honestly a miracle that Phillies are still in contention at this point of the season.
It’s even more of a miracle that they have done all this without trading away half their farm system in a panic move.
With the roster from the last two years still basically together and getting healthy, and coming off four straight wins against a top-tier NL team , it’s difficult to predict what will transpire in the next 75 games. There are still so many questions that reside with this team, and it’s future for the second half of the season.
10 Questions
1. Will the Placido Polanco and Chase Utley get back in time to help resurrect the season?
2. Can the Phillies offense start giving Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels more run support?
3. Will Ryan Howard regain his power stroke without sacrificing his near .300 batting average?
4. Will the underachievers (Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez) start playing near the all-star level they are capable of?
5. Will the overachievers (Kyle Kendrick, Brian Schneider, Wilson Valdez, Jamie Moyer) be able to keep playing at the level we have been accustomed to seeing during the first half of 2010?
6. Speaking of Moyer, will his 47-year old arm be able to hold up down the stretch?
7. Will Ruben Amaro pull the trigger on a trade to acquire a UTIL infielder, bullpen help, or a top/middle of the rotation starter?
8. Can Brad Lidge find some form of the consistency that was present in 2008?
9. Will the Phillies organization decide to part ways with a member of the Phillies outfield trio (Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez) to make room for phenom Domonic Brown?
10. Can the Phillies stay healthy?
If the majority of the answers, especially the last one, are YES, then I still am confident that the Phillies will come back, win the NL East for the 4th straight year, and make their third consecutive trip to the Fall Classic.
Whether that happens or not, it’s going to be a entertaining next couple months if you are a Phillies fan to say the least.
Not much time to spare here at Penn State during Arts Fest, so unfortunately, I have to make this post relatively short.
Via the walkoff longball, the Philies have won their last two games against the Cincinnati Reds in dramatic fashion to say the least.
While the end result was the same the last two nights at Citizens Bank Park, the trips to these finishes couldn’t have been more different.
On Thursday night, the dramatics clearly could have been avoided. Runs given up from Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge in the 8th and 9th inning respectively ruined another solid outing by Kyle Kendrick, and gave more proof that the Phillies needs at the trade deadline are far greater than just a utility infielder and a middle of the rotation starter. In the end of it all, both Madson and the much maligned Lidge were bailed out by an unlikely source, Brian Schneider, who with his leadership and overall solid play (not even considering the walkoff) has really has justified Ruben Amaro’s decision to sign him as the primary backup to Carlos Ruiz when many teams thought his career was over.
On Friday night though, from the standpoint of a Phillies fan, the dramatics were encouraged and needed. Down 7-1 going into the 9th inning and with the way the season has gone so far, no one in their right mind could have imagined the Phillies winning that game. No Chase Utley, no Placido Polanco, no offense for the first eight innings of the game, no chance right?
It’s probably good no one relayed that negative (and somewhat justifiable) mindset to Greg Dobbs and Cody Ransom.
The three-run homerun by the new and improved Dobbs and the game tying two-run game tying HR by the recently called up Ransom capped off a stretch of six unanswered runs for Philadelphia and tied the game up at seven apiece, making it the largest deficit the Phillies have come back this season. After another unsung hero, Nelson Figueroa, pitched a crucial two-inning stretch for his second consecutive game, the stage was set for a usual suspect to finally deliver. Ryan Howard, on a breaking-ball thrown by All-Star LHP Arthur Rhodes (not usually the best situation for Howard), showed why he will join Rhodes on that NL All-Star team. With one swing of the bat, Howard sent shockwaves through Citizens Bank Park, as his two-run blast capped off an improbable comeback gave the Phillies their second walk-off in as many days against first-place caliber team.
While it remains unclear what impact these last two games will have on the rest of the season, after seeing the jubilation on the faces of those that were once a few days ago so dejected (Shane Victorino in particular), is appears that the “swagger” that Jamie Moyer and Charlie Manuel said was missing from the team after the Phillies 2nd loss in three games to the division-leading Atlanta Braves on Wednesday might in fact be back after a season-long hiatus that has seemed like an eternity.
It’s about time.
With the trade deadline less than a month away, one part of the Phillies organization that is surely under a large microscope is their farm system. Months removed from trading six of their top 15 prospects in deals to acquire both Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, the current Phillies prospects are not as highly-regarded as they once were. However, if a trade to acquire a certain utility player or pitching help is to be made, then it is important to recognize those who are not at the big league level within the organization.
This look into the minor leagues is not gauged on who is ranked the top prospects by baseball insiders, but is based on the players who may be gaining notoriety inside the organization or in baseball circles because of their reputation, talent, performance at the minor league level, or trade value come July 31st.
Phillies Minor Leaguers: 10 Prospects To Watch
Stats Updated as of July 5th, 2010.
: OF Domonic Brown: A given on this list. Not only the #1 overall prospect in the Phillies organization, but ESPN recently ranked him as the #1 overall prospect in all of baseball. Even with all the accolades he’s already received, his play is showing that the hype is warranted. The 22 year-old has graduated through three levels of the minor leagues the last year and a half. He was probably the Eastern League MVP at Double-A Reading through two months, but was promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the middle of June. Since then, in 12 G in Triple-A, his .405 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBI’s is just flat out ridiculous. So is his overall athleticism, in which he was a former baseball and football recruit for the University of Miami before signing with the Phillies.
: P Jared Cosart: Top 100 prospect who was selected to 2010 Futures game in Anaheim along with Brown. 7-3 record at Single-A Lakewood with a 3.79 ERA and 77 K’s. Upper 90’s Fastball. Currently on the disabled list.
: 1B Jonathan Singleton: Just 18 years old when the 2010 season started. .347 BA, 10 HR, 48 RBI’s at Single-A Lakewood. May have biggest upside besides Brown, and has had the biggest rise this year in baseball circles out of any other member of the Phillies farm system. Will be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball at the start of next season. With Ryan Howard under contract until 2014, if the Phillies were to be involved in a blockbuster trade at any point, Singelton will most likely be the centerpiece if the team involved wants prospects.
: C Sebastian Valle: After the Phillies dealt Lou Marson and Travis D’Arnaud in the last year, that made Valle the top catching prospect in the organization. Remember, he’s still just 19 years old, playing the position that is the most difficult to flourish at when it comes to big league production. .265 BA, 9 HR, 4 RBI’s at Single-A Lakewood shows promise.
: OF Anthony Gose: By far the fastest player in the organization. Had 76 SB in 2008 with Single-A Lakewood. Solid defensively but still very raw at the plate. At 19 years old, he’s at Advanced-A Clearwater with a ways to go.
: P Phillipe Aumont: Top Prospect that the Phillies got back from Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade. The pre-season top 100 prospect in all of baseball drew much criticism when he went 1-6 in two months at Double-A Reading this season. Aumont got sent down to Advanced-A Clearwater in June, where he is 0-0 in 5 games with a 4.91 ERA.
: OF Tyson Gillies: Another highly regarded prospect acquired in the Cliff Lee deal to Seattle. A high energy guy that impressed in Spring Training but has battled injuries and inconsistency all year at Double-A Reading (.238 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI’s in 26 games).
: OF John Mayberry Jr: Made his debut with the Phillies last year, but struggled to make consistent contact and has spent the entire 2010 season so far at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Got off to a hot start, but since enduring a knee/ankle injury in the middle of June, he’s really struggled. Stat-line curently sitting at .241 BA, 10 HR, 42 RBI’s through 74 games. Behind Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and now Domonic Brown on the organizational depth chart at OF, a move for an infielder to fill-in for Chase Utley and Placido Polanco may include Mayberry. That is, if the teams actually want him.
: P Joe Savery: Former 1st rounder (2007) out of Rice University. Had 16 wins last year combined at Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but as struggled mightily this year as a starter with the Iron Pigs (1-8) and has been converted into a reliever at Triple-A.
: 3B/OF Anthony Hewitt: Former first rounder (2008) out of HS. Has struggled in 2 years in the minors, but is still very raw, and is finally figure out minor league pitching (.271, 7 HR, 33 RBIs at Single-A Lakewood). Doesn’t have a position yet.
Others You Should Know:
- P Andrew Carpenter: (25 years old. Made big league debut with the Philadelphia in 2009, and started off the 2010 season on the big league 25-man roster as a member of the Phillies bullpen. 7-6 with the 3.21 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh Valley)
- 1B Matthew Rizzoti: (24 years old. 1B prospect that has come out of nowhere this year at Double-A Reading. Hitting a team high .366 with 11 HR and 43 RBI’s since being called up from Advanced-A Clearwater in May. )
- SS Freddy Galvis: (20 years old. Probably the best defensive prospect in the organization. It is believed that the 2010 Eastern League All-star play SS at the big league level right now from a defensive standpoint. Struggles at the dish but is making improvements. .226 BA, 2 HR, 28 RBI’s at Double-A Reading.
- P J.C Ramirez: (21 years old. 2-1 at Double-A Reading in first season with the organization after being the 3rd prospect acquired by the Phillies via Seattle for Cliff Lee)
- 3B Harold Garcia ( 24 years old. Advanced-A Clearwater. Set team-record with a 36 game hitting streak earlier this season. Named the Phillies minor league player of the month for June.)
- P Jesus Sanchez: (21 years old. 7-4 with a 2.67 ERA at Advanced-A Clearwater)
- P Trevor May: ( 20 years old. A pre-season top 10 prospect in the organization. Has underperformed at bit, 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA at Advanced-A Clearwater)
- OF Cody Overbeck: (24 years old. 9th round draft pick in 2008. .302 BA, 11 HR, 41 RBI’s at Advanced-A Clearwater)
- P Matthew Way: ( 23 Years old. 7-4 record with a 3.65 ERA at SS Single-A Lakewood)
For those who don’t know, the Major League Baseball draft starts tonight.
With that said, WHEN Bryce Harper is selected as the #1 overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, that will start the trickle down effect of the 50 round selection process, deciding the fate of over 2,000 baseball prospects who have entered their names into the draft.
Needless to say, from a sport vs. sport perspective, the next three days will be much different then you will see in the NBA draft process (2 rounds), or even the NFL draft process (7 rounds).
For the Phillies, their first selection will be in the first round, in which they hold the rights to the 27th overall pick. Since it’s virtually impossible to do a mock draft with the amount of potential prospects and the added element of actually signing them, at this point of the process, the best way do a “draft breakdown” is to break down their past draft success, and some of the areas of need for the organization.
First of all, if you look at the Phillies roster, you will see that a good number of the guys that compile the 25-man and even the 40-man roster are homegrown, meaning they were drafted by Philadelphia. Considering the Phillies have won three straight NL East titles and have gone to the past two World Series while primarily the same nucleus of players, that’s a testament to the members of the Philadelphia organization, and most importantly, their scouting department.
Here are some of the notable players that the Phillies have drafted and kept within the organization in previous years.
One of the many members of the Phillies farm system to make a splash in Philly
1996: Jimmy Rollins (2nd round)
1998: Ryan Madson (9th round)
2000: Chase Utley (1st round)
2001: Ryan Howard (5th round)
2002: Cole Hamels (1st round)
2003: Kyle Kendrick (7th round)
2006: Dominic Brown (The Phillies current top prospect was drafted in the 20th round)
Looking at the the list, which includes two MVP’s (Rollins, Howard), a perennial MVP candidate (Utley), a potential ace (Hamels), and a potential five-tool outfielder (Brown), that’s a pretty impressive job done by the Phillies front office.
They will have their hands full this year though, as their are really two areas of the Phillies farm system that should and could be addressed in the first round.
Catcher: The departures of Jason Jaramillo, Lou Marson, and Travis D’Arnaud in the last two years via trades have left the Phillies without a premiere, young catching prospect who is near big league ready. From a talent perspective, the only one who right now projects as a future major leaguer is Sebastian Valle, who at 19 years of age, is still at least two or three years away from making a contribution at the big league level. Other than Valle, the Phillies do not have much of an emphasis on “future” when it comes to the catching position (no offense to guys like Paul Hoover or Kevin Nelson).
POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: JR Yasmani Grandal (University of Miami), SR Mike Kvasnicka (University of Minnesota), Kellin Deglan (Canada), Justin O’Connor (HS)
Pitcher: There is always a need for pitching, especially if the talent is there on the board when you are selection. For the Phillies though, it’s also a need. A year removed from trading away their there top pitching prospects in Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Knapp in deals to obtain Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, the jury is still out in regards to the pitchers within the Phillies minor league system. Top pitching prospect Phillipe Aumont was just demoted from Double-A Reading for his struggles, and both Drew Carpenter and Joe Savery (1st round pick in 2007) haven’t quite lived up to their billing as future contributors for Philadelphia. When it comes to this years draft, if there is a year to take a chance on a pitcher, it’s in 2010, as two pitchers with local ties are slated to be selected in the back end of the first round. Both Jesse Biddle (Germantown Friends School HS Senior), and Cam Bedrosian (son of former Phillies pitcher Steve Bedrosian) have risen up draft boards in the last few weeks, and it likely that at least one of them will still be there when the 27th selection in the first round rolls along.
POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: Biddle (Projected Pick), Bedrosian, JR Drew Pomeranz (University of Mississippi)
Other: The Phillies have everyone in their starting infield locked up until at least 2012, and they have spent their last two of their last three top picks (Kelly Dugan and Anthony Hewitt) on infielders. With that said, I don’t see them addressing needs within the infield in the first round. In terms of outfielders, a lot relies on how the Phillies negotiations are going with signing Jayson Werth to a long-term deal. The Phillies still have their top prospect in Brown along with John Mayberry Jr. buried on the outfield depth chart below Werth, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez, and have a few others, including two speedsters in Quentin Berry and Anthony Gose, who have the potential to make a big league impact in a couple years. However, if a couple of the premiere OF prospects in this years draft end up falling to the bottom half of round one, such as HS senior Austin Wilson, things could get a little interesting.
Projection: Biddle or Bedrosian (whoever is still on the board or they think they have a better chance to sign). If that isn’t possible, then their highest ranked catcher still on the board should be the pick. If Wilson drops all the way to 27 though, his talent may be too much to pass up.
Should be a fun couple days..
Josh Getzoff
Alex Cohen
Stephen Watson
Zach Field
Ian Stancato