PHILLIES: NLDS Schedule and Roster Set

While the Phillies do not need to send in their 25-man roster until 10 AM on Wed., after their most recent workout at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday afternoon, the details surrounding the divisional series against the Reds are now officially finalized. Here is the schedule and NLDS roster (information via “The Phillies Zone” writer Matt Gelb).

SCHEDULE (With Probable Starting Pitchers)

Game 1 (Wednesday at 5:07 PM at Citizens Bank Park): Phillies (Roy Halladay) vs. Reds (Edison Volquez)

Game 2 (Friday at 6:07 PM at Citizens Bank Park): Phillies (Roy Oswalt) vs. Reds (Bronson Arroyo)

Game 3: (Sunday at 7:07 PM or 8:07 PM at Great American Ballpark): Reds (Johnny Cueto) vs. Phillies (Cole Hamels)

Game 4: (Monday at 5:07 PM or 7:37 PM at Great American Ballpark if needed) Reds (TBD) vs. Phillies (Roy Halladay)

Game 5: (Wednesday at 6:07 PM or 8:07 PM at Citizens Bank Park if needed): Phillies (Roy Halladay) vs. Reds (TBD)

ROSTER

PITCHERS (10)

SP Roy Halladay, SP Roy Oswalt, SP Cole Hamels, SP/RHP Joe Blanton, RHP Chad Durbin, RHP Jose Contreras, LHP J.C Romero, LHP Antonio Bastardo, RHP Ryan Madson, RHP Brad Lidge

Those who were left off the roster: SP Kyle Kendrick, SP Vance Worley, RHP David Herndon, RHP Danys Baez, LHP Mike Zagurski

INFIELDERS (8)

1B Ryan Howard, 2B Chase Utley, SS Jimmy Rollins, 3B Placido Polanco, 1B Mike Sweeney, 1B/OF Ross Gload, UTIL Wilson Valdez, UTIL Greg Dobbs

Those who were left off the roster: SS Brian Bocock, 3B Cody Ransom

OUTFIELDERS (5)

LF Raul Ibanez, CF Shane Victorino, RF Jayson Werth, OF Ben Francisco, OF Domonic Brown

Those who were left off the roster: OF John Mayberry Jr.

CATCHERS (2)

C Carlos Ruiz, C Brian Schneider

Those who were left off the roster: C Paul Hoover, C Dane Sardinha

PHILLIES: Projecting The NLDS Roster

Now that the Phillies have not only clinched a playoff birth, but have also locked up yet another NL East crown and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, it’s time to erase the next week of meaningless baseball from our memory and actually focus on what’s important.

Yes folks, would be the Phillies fourth straight appearance in the postseason.

As I said in my last post, I would break down the potential playoff roster once everything was clinched. Well, I am a man of my word, and since the Phillies 2010 playoffopener will officially be played Wed, October 7th with an opponent that will TBD, it looks like it is about time to see how the current 33-man roster will dwindle down to 25 once the NLDS starts.

PITCHERS (11): In this breakdown, I have the Phillies keeping four starters and eight relievers. In reality, with the way the schedule looks as of right now (Games on Wed, Fri, Sun, Mon, Wed.), they will most likely use three starters, in which Doc should be ready to go if a fourth game is needed on 4-days rest. With that said, Joe Blanton will most likely be on the playoff roster as a possible 4th game starter, and if not, a middle-reliever if need be.  With Blanton on the roster, along with Danys Baez, who was signed to a deal in the off-season basically to give this team another veteran hard-throwing RHP for the month of October, that means both David Herndon and Kyle Kendrick will be left off, as their normal spot on the 25-man roster should be fulfilled by a second LHP as you will see below. I also project Cole Hamels to start game 2, so he will have the opportunity to pitch at Citizens Bank Park in front of a home crowd, something that worked quite well with him in the last two previous postseasons.

SP: Roy Halladay (Game 1 Starter)

SP: Cole Hamels (Game 2/3 Starter)

SP: Roy Oswalt (Game 2/3 Starter)

SP: Joe Blanton (Game 4 Starter/Middle Reliever)

RHP: Chad Durbin

RHP: Danys Baez

RHP: Jose Contreras

LHP: J.C Romero

LHP: Antonio Bastardo

Setup: Ryan Madson

Closer: Brad Lidge

CATCHERS (2)

This is pretty simple. In a 5-game series, barring injury concerns, there is no need to have three catchers on the roster. With Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz and primary backup Brian Schneider, fortunately, there aren’t any of those concerns. With that said, look for the Phillies to keep a veteran backstop, that being Paul Hoover, in the bullpen as a nice little security blanket close by if the injury bug bites in the NLDS.

C: Carlos Ruiz

C: Brian Schneider

INFIELDERS (7): Aside from the normal starters and Wilson Valdez, Phillies management has some tough decisions to make on this end. Do they keep an extra outfielder with speed such as Domonic Brown or John Mayberry Jr.  instead of Greg Dobbs, who would usually be a shoe-in to play in the postseason if not for his struggles this season? At this point, in a NLDS 5-game series, I think yes. Also, the mid-season addition of Mike Sweeney limits the need for Dobbs as the combination of he, Vladez, Ross Gload have proven that they are able to play the positions that Dobbs can at an even higher level.

1B: Ryan Howard

2B: Chase Utley

SS: Jimmy Rollins

3B: Placido Polanco

UTIL: Ross Gload

UTIL: Mike Sweeney

UTIL: Wilson Valdez

OUTFIELDERS (5): Another tough one here. Aside from the everyday starters and Ben Francisco, the final outfield spot comes down to three guys. Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., and yet again, Greg Dobbs. As a stated before, Dobbs’s lackluster performance this year really leaves him in a difficult position to make the postseason roster in any capacity. When it comes down to Dobbs and Mayberry, the biggest thing here is need. If the Phillies take Mayberry, that leaves only one possible LH situational hitter (Gload) on the bench. While it does depend on who they play in the NLDS, I don’t see Charlie Manuel and company feeling comfortable with that regardless of the opponent. I just don’t. Along with that rationale, taking Brown along for the postseason ride would go a long way towards giving him the proper experience that would allow him to properly implant Jayson Werth in the Phillies outfield once Werth bolts for the allure of dollar signs come the offseason.

RF: Jayson Werth

CF: Shane Victorino

LF: Raul Ibanez

OF: Ben Francisco

OF: Domonic Brown

Well, that was my stab at it. The two toughest calls here are obviously the battle of the last utility spot between Brown, Mayberry, and Dobbs and the decision of who’s going to be the 11th pitcher between Baez, Kendrick, and Durbin.

While I know the anticipation is killing all of you, the good news is that you only have to wait until next Wed. to find out.

PHILLIES: Recap of September Call-Ups

Fresh off of a split with a double-header against the Florida Marlins and sitting just a half-game back of the NL East leading Atlanta Braves, the Phillies made what looks like the last of their September roster moves (besides Danys Baez coming back up when he is healthy), as it appears that John Mayberry Jr. will likely join the team on Tuesday for the final month of the regular season.

Just to recap this protocol, on September 1st, the MLB rosters are able to expand from the usual 25-man roster to a maximum 40-player roster. This allows players who are currently on the Phillies organizational 40-man roster that are minor leagues for whatever reason to be brought up to major league competition until the end of the regular season without any coinciding roster move.

Including the probable addition of Mayberry and optimism surrounding the health of Baez, that will most likely bring the total to nine, that being the number additional players who will be occupying spots in the Phillies clubhouse until October 3rd (final day of the regular season).

Here is a recap of all the moves and the impact that these players may be able to make down the stretch.

RHP Danys Baez: Baez, a reliever who was once thought of as a potential closer if the Brad Lidge situation did not pan out, has been much of a disappointment since signing a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar contract at the start of the 2010 season. Inconsistent at best and borderline unbearable at worst, there is a reason that the team is not rushing to bring him back to the fold from injury. At the most, he may take up some mop-duty roles if games are out of hand to keep the likes of Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, J.C Romero, and Jose Contreras fresh for when it really matters.

OF John Mayberry Jr.: While it’s not official yet, it’s widely assumed that Mayberry will be with the Phillies come Tuesday. Say what you want about him (overrated, a 1st rd. bust, etc.) but he really does have value for this team. For one, he absolutely demolishes lefties (.350 this year at Triple-A Lehigh Valley), so pinch-hitting duties and an occasional starting nod to spare Raul Ibanez against those southpaws may be in the cards for Mayberry if he is promoted. Secondly, Mayberry’s 20 stolen bases this year should give him an opportunity to pinch-run late in games. Lastly, his ability to play the two corner OF positions at an above-average level will give manager Charlie Manuel the option of using him during double-switch situations late in games. All things considered, none of this is valid if he is not added to the big league roster.

An interesting subplot to the end of the season could be the usage of Vance Worley.

RHP Vance Worley: Now this is a bit interesting. Worley has made a meteoric jump on MLB prospect lists since going from Double-A Reading to his first ever big league on Monday in the span of 3 months (a time frame that also includes being involved in the Roy Oswalt trade rumors). Yesterday, Worley did nothing to stop his climb to the top of the organizational mountain, going 5 innings and giving up just 2 ER in a spot-start against the Marlins. Just to refresh your memories, the Phillies branch has never been thrilled with the idea of Kyle Kendrick as the teams fifth starter, and I’m going to go out there on a limb and say that Worley’s role on this team for every fifth game will show that. Catch my drift? Even if that is not the case, Worley’s two well above-average big league pitches (FB, Slider) will allow him to have some worth as a primary long reliever in the next few weeks.

LHP Mike Zagurski: This was to be expected. Zagurski spent a month with the Phillies earlier this season when J.C Romero was down, and has showed utter dominance at with Lehigh Valley this year (13 straight scoreless innings at one point). While his transition to the big leagues could be viewed by some as shaky, with the ability to expand the roster, having LHP representation in the bullpen besides Romero and Antonio Bastardo was a must, and Zagurski and the next player I am going to talk about were really the only suitable candidates who could fill that role for this team.

LHP Nate Robertson: The former Tigers/Marlins starting pitcher was signed almost two weeks ago by the Phillies for one specific reason. Flexibility. In the past two seasons, Robertson has pitched in 47 games. He’s started 24 of them. So basically, the guy has just as much experience starting games has he does coming in relief. That had to weigh heavily in the mind of GM Ruben Amaro Jr. when they he, along with other members of the front office, were discussing signing a LHP for the stretch run. Well, his 6.1 innings of scoreless baseball he pitched AGAINST the Phillies as a member of the Marlins on April 18th this season may have had an impact as well.

RHP Scott Mathieson: Probably the move that most fans wanted to see. In July, Phillies fans got a small taste of Mathieson’s near 100 MPH in one game of relief duty. That first big league appearance in three years (two Tommy John surgeries later) may not have gone as well as all those involved would have liked, but a player who can bring a fastball like that to the table when he steps up to the mound is bound to be an valuable asset to a team in the middle of a pennant race, regardless of how much he actually pitches.

1b/ OF Ross Gload: It’s not really fair to lump Gload into the Sepetember “call-up” category, but his presence back in the Phillies clubhouse after a month on the disabled list can is indeed  a welcoming addition to the roster. While a groin injury may have sidelined Gload for the better part of the Phillies recent surge up the standings, he should assume duties as the Phillies primary LH bat along with Domonic Brown off the bench when he is deemed healthy to do so.

INF/OF Greg Dobbs: Dobbs has been designated for assignment twice this season due to his ability to produce at the big league level, so his production and playing time may be limited. However, once upon a time, Dobbs was the league leader in pinch hits, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Charlie Manuel, being the player’s coach that he is, gives Dobbs a couple at-bats against RHP, since he still has shown the ability to hit them even during this stretch of baseball that may mark the end of his career.

C Paul Hoover: Kind of ironic that the first of these call-ups may have been the most insignificant. Hoover, as it stands right now, is buried behind Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider on the teams depth chart at his position. This year though, with injuries being a common theme with both of those catchers, Hoover’s worth is to the team is invaluable, whether he is in the clubhouse or being used as the bullpen catcher.  Can’t say I would be comfortable seeing him behind the dish in a meaningful game though.

Notable absences from this list include both Andy Tracy and Cody Ransom.  Before you say “Why?”, take note of a possible and probable reason.

They are not on the current 40-man roster.

So, in order for them to participate in a big league contest, the Phillies would have to take two players off the 40-man roster, enabling them to be picked up on another team via waivers. As of right now, I cannot see the Phillies doing that to anyone besides Dobbs, and he would have to REALLY struggle for them to do so. Truthfully, I don’t see Dobbs getting enough opportunities to struggle any more than he has already, so it’s kind of a mute point.

For right now that is.

PHILLIES: Draft Drama

For those who don’t know, the Major League Baseball draft starts tonight.

With that said, WHEN Bryce Harper is selected as the #1 overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, that will start the trickle down effect of the 50 round selection process, deciding the fate of over 2,000 baseball prospects who have entered their names into the draft.

Needless to say, from a sport vs. sport perspective, the next three days will be much different then you will see in the NBA draft process (2 rounds), or even the NFL draft process (7 rounds).

For the Phillies, their first selection will be in the first round, in which they hold the rights to the 27th overall pick. Since it’s virtually impossible to do a mock draft with the amount of potential prospects and the added element of actually signing them, at this point of the process, the best way do a “draft breakdown” is to break down their past draft success, and some of the areas of need for the organization.

First of all, if you look at the Phillies roster, you will see that a good number of the guys that compile the 25-man and even the 40-man roster are homegrown, meaning they were drafted by Philadelphia. Considering the Phillies have won three straight NL East titles and have gone to the past two World Series while primarily the same nucleus of players, that’s a testament to the members of the Philadelphia organization, and most importantly, their scouting department.

Here are some of the notable players that the Phillies have drafted and kept within the organization in previous years.

One of the many members of the Phillies farm system to make a splash in Philly

1996: Jimmy Rollins (2nd round)

1998: Ryan Madson (9th round)

2000: Chase Utley (1st round)

2001: Ryan Howard (5th round)

2002: Cole Hamels (1st round)

2003: Kyle Kendrick (7th round)

2006: Dominic Brown (The Phillies current top prospect was drafted in the 20th round)

Looking at the the list, which includes two MVP’s (Rollins, Howard), a perennial MVP candidate (Utley), a potential ace (Hamels), and a potential five-tool outfielder (Brown), that’s a pretty impressive job done by the Phillies front office.

They will have their hands full this year though, as their are really two areas of the Phillies farm system that should and could be addressed in the first round.

Catcher: The departures of Jason Jaramillo, Lou Marson, and Travis D’Arnaud in the last two years via trades have left the Phillies without a premiere, young catching prospect who is near big league ready. From a talent perspective, the only one who right now projects as a future major leaguer is Sebastian Valle, who at 19 years of age, is still at least two or three years away from making a contribution at the big league level. Other than Valle, the Phillies do not have much of an emphasis on “future” when it comes to the catching position (no offense to guys like Paul Hoover or Kevin Nelson).

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: JR Yasmani Grandal (University of Miami), SR Mike Kvasnicka (University of Minnesota), Kellin Deglan (Canada), Justin O’Connor (HS)

Pitcher: There is always a need for pitching, especially if the talent is there on the board when you are selection. For the Phillies though, it’s also a need. A year removed from trading away their there top pitching prospects in Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Knapp in deals to obtain Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay,  the jury is still out in regards to the pitchers within the Phillies minor league system. Top pitching prospect Phillipe Aumont was just demoted from Double-A Reading for his struggles, and both Drew Carpenter and Joe Savery (1st round pick in 2007) haven’t quite lived up to their billing as future contributors for Philadelphia. When it comes to this years draft, if there is a year to take a chance on a pitcher, it’s in 2010, as two pitchers with local ties are slated to be selected in the back end of the first round. Both Jesse Biddle (Germantown Friends School HS Senior), and Cam Bedrosian (son of former Phillies pitcher Steve Bedrosian) have risen up draft boards in the last few weeks, and it likely that at least one of them will still be there when the 27th selection in the first round rolls along.

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: Biddle (Projected Pick), Bedrosian, JR Drew Pomeranz (University of Mississippi)

Other: The Phillies have everyone in their starting infield locked up until at least 2012, and they have spent their last two of their last three top picks (Kelly Dugan and Anthony Hewitt) on infielders. With that said, I don’t see them addressing needs within the infield in the first round. In terms of outfielders, a lot relies on how the Phillies negotiations are going with signing Jayson Werth to a long-term deal. The Phillies still have their top prospect in Brown along with John Mayberry Jr. buried on the outfield depth chart below Werth, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez, and have a few others, including two speedsters in Quentin Berry and Anthony Gose, who have the potential to make a big league impact in a couple years. However, if a couple of the premiere OF prospects in this years draft end up falling to the bottom half of round one, such as HS senior Austin Wilson, things could get a little interesting.

Projection: Biddle or Bedrosian (whoever is still on the board or they think they have a better chance to sign). If that isn’t possible, then their highest ranked catcher still on the board should be the pick. If Wilson drops all the way to 27 though, his talent may be too much to pass up.

Should be a fun couple days..

PHILLIES: Bad Baseball

There is really no way to sugarcoat this one.

The Phillies are playing bad, bad, baseball at this time.

They have lost four in a row (6 out of 8),  including two straight to the New York Mets. If that isn’t bad enough (especially the part about losing to the Mets) during this current 4-game losing streak, the Phillies have not scored a run off of any of the four starting pitchers (28 innings scoreless streak), and have scored a run in just one out of their last 36 innings played. So much for the best lineup in the NL, right?

Don’t jump off the Ben Franklin Bridge just yet, fans.

After Wednesday night’s 5-0 shutout (second consecutive shutout at the hands of the Mets), manager Charlie Manuel called a much-anticipated team meeting. Obviously, it’s not a good sign when a manager has to address his team in private due to lackluster play, but regardless, it had to be done.

Just looking through past moments during the Charlie Manuel era in Philadelphia, whenever he holds a closed-door, no press, team meeting  the players usually respond. Whether that means the Phillies will go out and score one run or put up a ten-spot off of Mets starter Mike Pelfrey on Thursday night, that’s obviously another story. However, something tells me that the Phillies will not get shutout (I know, I’m really going out there on a limb aren’t I?), and with a suddenly confident Cole Hamels 5-2 overall record; 3-0 in May) on the hill, they might actually leave New York without getting swept.

While one victory won’t be the answer to all the problems, going into a big 4-game series with the Marlins with Roy Halladay pitching the opener,  salvaging a series with a victory against the rival Mets Thursday night may go a long way.

If it doesn’t, hey, look on the bright side, at least the Flyers are in the Stanley Cup Finals.

OTHER NOTES

: Phew! Paul Hoover cleared waivers today and was assigned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In all seriousness though, with the way the Phillies have been dealing with injuries this season, keeping Hoover in the organization, especially with the way he played (.278 BA with solid defense) during his cup-of-tea in the big leagues last week, is worth noting with some enthusiasm.

: Couple injury notes.  J.A Happ, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, and Jimmy Rollins are all in the process of rehabbing their respective injuries. Just a guess, but in about two weeks, we should see both J-Roll and “Lights Out” back in a Phillies uniform (maybe sooner for Lidge).

: The Los Angeles Dodgers have expressed interest in acquiring Seattle LHP Cliff Lee. Wouldn’t that makes things a bit more interesting if the Phillies and the Dodgers matchup for their third straight NLCS at seasons end?

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UPDATED (MIDNIGHT)

Well, looks like I may have jinxed the Phillies. Game three has just gone final, and Mike Pelfrey and the Mets have shutout the Phillies for the THIRD consecutive game.

That’s right. 27 innings, 27 goose eggs on the scoreboard.

That’s an absolute disgrace, and even worse, it was to the Mets. The three-game sweep of the Phillies brings New York within two games of the divisional lead, a half game back of Atlanta for second place in the NL East, and a game in front the Marlins, who the Phillies begin a four-game series with tomorrow.

Needless to say, if these historic offensive woes continue versus Florida, the security blanket of a lead in the division that the Phillies have had for the better part of the last 13 months (except for three days earlier this season) will be there no longer.

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PHILLIES: Time To Panic?

As one Philadelphia team is one step away from reaching the championship in there respective sport, the team in the City of Brotherly love who has most recently reached the top of the totum pole is beginning to struggle.

J-Roll is out of the lineup once again for at least two weeks.

Losers of four out of their last six games, and averaging an anemic two runs a game over that span, the Phillies are obviously not playing there best baseball. In past years, losing streaks have correlated with offensive futility for Philadelphia, and this stretch isn’t much different. While losing Jimmy Rollins to the disabled list for the second time this season to a calf injury may be playing a large part to this rough patch, injuries are part of baseball, and unfortunately, the games are still going to count for Philadelphia despite them losing their perennial all-star SS, again.

Is it time to panic?

When it comes to the overall struggles of the Phillies, probably not. Even without Rollins, the lineup is too good to struggle like this over a long period of time. I know losing two out of three to the Red Sox and getting shutout for 16 combined innings by Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield may make you think otherwise, but remember, in each of the last two seasons, the Phillies have had the same fate when playing Boston, losing two games in a three-game series.

In addition to this, the Red Sox have always matched up well with the Phillies, and have even had success against Roy Halladay when he was with Toronto (Halladay had a career 4.39 ERA against the Red Sox before this past weekend), so I’m not all that surprised or concerned with the outcome of the series or Halladay’s subpar start (5.2 IP, 7 ER) on Saturday.

Is it time to be concerned though?

It may be.

A second stint to the D.L for J-Roll for a calf injury is most worrisome. This is the same player who was plagued with injuries during the first-half of last season, tried to play through them, and ended up hitting around .200 until he was presumably taken out of the lineup by manager Charlie Manuel so he could heal. Placing Jimmy Rollins back on the disabled list was the smart move, but the fact of the matter is, this injury may be one that will linger the entire season, meaning that J-Roll would have to play the remaining three months at less than 100%. It also doesn’t help when Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and J.A Happ will be on the disabled list with him.

No player is ever 100% at this part of the season, but it is never a good sign when every other team in baseball knows it.

While the Phillies offense has been prone to struggle at times, the defense has been just as bad lately, which is quite out of ordinary. Yes, losing a gold-glove SS to an injury would allow that to happen, but the worst part about the Phillies recent defensive struggles is that they are coming at the most inopportune times. Case and point, in the last four starts for Phillies ace Roy Halladay, the Phillies defense has committed 10 errors, which for all you math majors is a whopping 2.5 errors a game. That may be acceptable in Little League, but not at this level of baseball, and certainly not with arguably the best team in the NL when their ace is on the mound.

In all honesty, these issues are most likely going to be temporary. They will have minimal affect when October comes around and the final standings etched in stone. But the fact of the matter is these games count towards the ultimate goal, and right now, they aren’t going well.

OTHER NOTES

: Wilson Valdez is becoming quite familiar with the Philly area. Six hours after clearing waivers and arriving back at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Valdez was shipped down the NE Extension back to Philadelphia as he was back on the 25-man roster with Jimmy Rollins being placed on the D.L

: Brian Schneider was activated on Monday from a 15-day DL stint after having successful rehab stint at Lehigh Valley (well, it depends what you mean by successful, he was 0-for-8). To make room for the backup catcher and first baseman, Paul Hoover was designated for assignment. Hoover, who hit .278 with the Phillies in his two week stint in the bigs backing up Carlos Ruiz, will have to pass through waivers. That may not happen.

: Matt Stairs hit his first homerun of the season this past weekend with the San Diego Padres. That makes 11 teams the former Phillie has hit a HR for. I still wish I made the purchase on the “In Case of Emergency, Use the STAIRS” shirt that was worn around Citizens Bank Park for the past three seasons. Classic.

: Check out this cbssportsline.com thread today saying Washington Nationals uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg broke his arm after getting hit by a foul ball during batting practice. If that’s true, wow, that’s awful luck. If that’s not true, which it seems more and more like is the case (no legitimate report), what a sick joke. I am glad I’m not one of the ten Nationals fans in the world right now.

PHILLIES: The “Halladay” Season

While it has not been finalized yet after being announced just less than 48 hours ago, the deal that has been rumored to go down for the past half a year is actually about to happen.

The deal that I am talking about is something involving the Philadelphia Phillies and them dealing for a former Cy Young Pitcher by the name of Roy Halladay.

Ring any bells?

If it doesn’t, go into the Philly Phour archives and read over ever single post I wrote in the month of July, and then it will refresh your memory.

So, the trade that was destined to take place is actually doing so. Now, I hate writing about posts about issues that are not finalized, but even if one of the players fails a physical (which is rumored to have happened), this trade is going to happen. So with that said, here is what the final trade details look like involving not three, but four teams (opinions to follow).

Philadelphia gets: Halladay, three Seattle Mariners prospects (Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Juan Ramirez), and six-million dollars in cash from Toronto

Toronto gets: Two Phillies prospects (Kyle Drabek and Travis D’arnaud) and Athletics top prospect Brett Wallace

Oakland gets: Phillies prospect Michael Taylor

Seattle gets: Cliff Lee

With all the details out there on the table, here’s my general opinion on the deal, in which my feelings have ranged from excited to bittersweet over the past two days.

THE GOOD

 

The Phillies now have arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last five years

By getting Halladay, and signing him to an three-year extension (with a possible 4th and 5th year option), the Phillies window of opportunity for another World Series title has been opened for another five seasons. As a current Phillies fan, you have to be happy about having a top 3-5 pitcher in all of baseball for the next few years as players like Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard are entering the prime of their own respective careers. With Halladay, those mentioned above, and guys such as Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies will be in contention for a championship every year for the next half a decade. There is no question about that. 

There’s no doubt that the Phillies gave up alot in this deal, but they didn’t just get Halladay in this trade. All three of the prospects the Phillies got from Seattle were highly-regarded (all top 10 in the organization). With Aumont, the Phillies get a pitcher who was former first-round pick in 2007 (same year and round as Drabek) and was the 33rd ranked prospect in all of baseball at the start of the 2009 season. Needless to say, the kid is good, so before you start sending Ruben Amaro Jr. hate letters for dealing Kyle Drabek, take a look at Aumont.

Also in the deal, the Phillies got an outfielder in Tyson Gillies and a pitcher in Juan Ramirez. With Ramirez, the Phillies are getting a guy with a high-ceiling, but still has plenty of room to grow (very similar to Jason Knapp who the Phillies dealt for Cliff Lee). Gillies, who is comparable to Taylor in terms of worth for their respective organizations, was ranked anywhere from 4th the 6th out of all the Mariners prospects, and was the 2nd-ranked outfielder in the organization. In comparison to that, Taylor was ranked anywhere from being the 3rd to the 6th best Phillies prospect, and was regarded as the 2nd best outfield prospect in the organization. While Taylor definitely has the super-star potential that Gillies may not have, he was expendable due to the fact the Phillies have a better outfield prospect in Dominic Brown waiting in the wings behind the three all-stars (Werth, Victorino, Ibanez) that currently patrol the Phillies outfield.

With that said, for those who are claiming that the Phillies traded away their entire future for just 3-5 years of Roy Halladay, think again. Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez will make an impact on the Phillies organization in both the Minor and Major League level of baseball. Mark my words.

THE BAD

Parting ways with Lee, Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud makes the Phillies look like they are dumping their future for the present. In a sense, they are right. Truth be told, I do question the Phillies virtually trading off Lee for Halladay. Based on track record, there is no doubt that Halladay is the better pitcher, but there will come a time that all the innings pitched by Halladay will start to take a toll on his body.  I sure hope that time comes later rather than sooner, or this deal will be best described as the demise of the Philadelphia Phillies. 

I know a primary reason on why the Phillies in a sense chose Halladay over Lee was because of the ability to sign Halladay to a long-term extension. Each player had a different mentality. Halladay wanted to sign a long-term deal with a contender (Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels) and Lee, with one more year with the Phillies, wanted to test the open market. The smart decision was to sign Halladay in fear that a year down the road Lee would spurn the Phillies for an absurd offer from the Yankees or Red Sox, and they followed that trail. 

Understandable.

However, the way the city of Philadelphia embraced Lee, especially during the playoff run, can’t be ignored. The Phillies fans loved Lee, and Lee loved Philadelphia, and for good reason. The Phillies gave Lee his best chance to win a World Series in his career, and Lee’s performance (and Chase Utley’s) almost got them past the Yankees to that point. Undoubtably, Lee was spectacular in his term with the Phillies, especially during the playoffs,  which something you can’t say about Halladay, because quite frankly, he’s never been to the playoffs before. 

It’s not just about dealing Lee in this trade. While I’m a little sad to see a possible future ace in Drabek and a potential all-star corner outfielder in Taylor go, I understand, because the Phillies did get two prospects back that have the potential to fill those same roles in the organization. I am though a little skeptical of the Phillies trading Travis D’arnaud. Now, I usually wouldn’t question an organization dealing a player who was in single-A for the majority of the season, but with Philadelphia it’s a little different. In the Cliff Lee deal, the Phillies dealt their top catching prospect, Lou Marson, to the Indians. Combine that with dealing D’arnaud in this trade, it leaves 19-year old Sebastian Valle as the top catching “prospect” in the organization, who is still a good four years away from contributing at the big league level. 

In any event, the need to deal for a relatively young catcher in the coming weeks is very clear, as Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schneider, and Paul Hoover are all on the wrong side of 30 and have limited value when it comes to the future of the Philadelphia Phillies. 

VERDICT

Essentially, the Phillies traded seven of their top-15 prospects (Drabek, Taylor, D’Arnaud, Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, and Jason Donald) over the last six months for Roy Halladay and three other prospects. Just seeing that on paper, I’d still do it.

However, the process is very simple. In the next 3-5 years, or as long as Roy Halladay is with the Phillies, two things need to happen for the trade to be justified.

1. Roy Halladay has to win a Cy Young as member of the Phillies.

2. The Phillies have to win a World Series in that time span.

Of course, one of those two things can also satisfy some critics, but overall, by trading players that were once deemed “untouchable”, Ruben Amaro Jr. is implying that the Phillies future is now.

One final thing.

Roy Halladay, I hope you are ready. Philadelphia is a tad different than Toronto. 

This post will be updated once the trade goes final. 

PHILLIES: 2009 NL East Champs

I wanted to wait and write this once the regular season concluded, but the lack of passion the Phillies have showed during their final series of the year against the Marlins has started to give me a warped perception of the Phillies possible playoff success. So, to provide a more positive, honest post, I am writing as the Phillies are on the field playing their regular season finale with Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett and company.

If you didn’t already know before, or forgot to read title of this post, for the third year in a row, the Phillies will represent the NL East in the playoffs as the division champs. 

Wow, what a shocker.

First off, you got to give credit to everyone in the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Three division titles in a row is a pretty big accomplishment, and for that you have to give the Phillies players, coaches, and management a round of applause. This team, with a nucleus of players who are in or are just reaching the prime of their careers (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Victorino, Werth), truly has a chance to become a dynasty with another historic run through October to the Fall Classic.

Secondly, you have to give credit to those who are not directly related to those with the PHILADELPHIA Phillies. Yes, it is minor league affiliateso of the Phillies that I am talking about. After being an employee for one of these teams (Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs) this summer, it is very clear that while these minor league teams don’t nearly get as much publicity as those in the bigs, they are just as responsible for their organizations’ success.

Just look at the Phillies current roster.

Raul Ibanez, Carlos Ruiz, Greg Dobbs, Pedro Martinez, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, Brad Lidge, J.C Romero (out for the season due to injury), Clay Condrey, Scott Eyre, John Mayberry Jr., Paul Hoover,  Miguel Cairo, and Andy Tracy have all spent time in the Phillies minor league system for either rehabilitation purposes, or as an everyday player. The minor league teams set the foundation for an organization, and if the Phillies have any success in October, those involved the Williamsport Crosscutters, Clearwater Threshers, Lakewood Blue Claws, Reading Phillies, and the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs should give themselves a pat on the back.

Lastly, a moment of clarity.

As much as I have analyzed the Phillies flaws in almost every aspect, they have been the class of the NL East since they stepped onto the field as defending World Series champs in April. Despite a couple tenuous weeks when the Braves and Marlins would run off a sequence of games in a row and pull to within a handful of games of the Phillies, it really wasn’t even close. Without the Mets at full health for pretty much the entire season, the Phillies were by far the most talented team in the NL East, and for the most part, they proved it, capping off with their third straight divisional title.

Now, the show must go on.

(A Phillies-Rockies NLDS preview will be posted in the next day or two.)

PHILLIES: Roster Moves and more..

September call-ups have arrived!

On September 1st, like every year, every major league baseball team had the ability to expand their roster from the normal 25-man team to a maximum 40-man squad.

The Phillies, in the 2 1/2 days since that time, have made a couple moves to provide depth for the stretch run.

Relief pitcher Jack Taschner, along with pitcher John Ennis and catcher Paul Hoover were promoted from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to the Phillies roster.

Taschner, who was a member of the Phillies 25-man opening day roster, struggled for the first 2 1/2 months of his first season with the Phillies. After being designated for assignment in late June, Taschner looks like he has corrected some of his issues.  In 20 games at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Taschner dominated, posting a 2.08 E.R.A. Taschner will provide depth as another left-handed arm in the bullpen.

Hoover, who was the starting catcher for Triple-A Lehigh Valley for the last  month of the season after prospect Lou Marson was traded as a part of the Cliff Lee deal, was added to the roster as an emergency 3rd catcher behind Carlos Ruiz and Paul Bako. Hoover, known for his defense, will be a defensive replacement in blowout games, at best.

Lastly for John Ennis, who was immediately placed on the 15-day DL, his days as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies are probably numbered. His promoted to the big leagues was a formality because he will not the field, as his spot on the 40-man roster will most likely be taken by another person, as he should spend the rest of the season on the disabled list.

One Other Potential Move:

Brett Myers: This one is going to happen. Myers, who was slated to miss the entire 2009 season with hip surgery, has made a miraculous comeback, to the point where he most likely will be added to the 40-man roster when the Phillies play the Houston Astros in the next week. After pitching two scorless innings in two separate games at Triple-A Lehigh Valley this week, Myers will be used primarily in middle-inning bullpen role when he comes up. However, if Brad Lidge or Ryan Madson find themselves in a rut in the next month, watch out for big Brett to fill in as a replacement set-up man or possible closer.

PHILLIES: Pedro Struggles in Rehab Start

In front of a sold out crowd of 10,000 at Coca-Cola Park. Pedro Martinez took the mound around 7:05 P.M for his rehab appearance at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

By 7:06 P.M, he had already given up his first run.

Martinez gave up a leadoff homerun on the second pitch up the game to 22 year-old Columbus Clippers CF Michael Brantley, which would end up giving the Clippers the lead for good.

 

Pedro Martinez got the loss in a rehab start at Lehigh Valley on Friday night

Pedro would settle down though, and pitch well at times. After the leadoff homerun, he would send down nine of the next ten hitters, striking out three in that span. Over time, his velocity would rise, hitting 91-92 mph consistently on the radar gun in the second and third inning. 

After throwing three scoreless innings (second, third, and fourth inning), Pedro would then struggle in the 5th. While he only gave up two hits, he walked two batters, and due to a throwing error by Lehigh Valley catcher Paul Hoover, Martinez ended up giving up four runs in the fifth, ending his night.

The Iron Pigs were down 5-2 when Pedro exited, and would not have the lead at any point of the game, which meant that Martinez was destined for the loss.

In his first Triple-A appearance of the season, Pedro’s line obviously wasn’t good, but it in reality, it wasn’t all THAT bad.

Here it is.

5 IP, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 H, 4 K’s, 3 BB

Pedro was on a small pitch count (80-90 pitches), and fell in between that when his night ended in the fifth. If he were in the bigs with the Phillies, Pedro probably would have gone out there in the 6th. 

In regards to his performance, five runs and three walks in five innings is obviously something to worry about.  Other than that, if you watched the game, you could see that Pedro got in a three inning groove that he just overmatched hitters. As I said before, the velocity was there, with his fastball ranging from 87-92 mph over the night. That’s much better than his mid-80′s stuff he had with the New York Mets last year. Also, Pedro had no trouble throwing his changeup and curveball for strikes (even with the 3 walks), something in a rehab start the Phillies organization obviously wanted to see.

On Monday, after his brief bullpen session at Lehigh Valley, Martinez said that he hoped this rehab start would be his last. I think the chances of that are 50/50 right now. With that Phillies trading for Cliff Lee, who was dominant in his first start with the Phillies (9 IP, 4 H, 1 ER), and adding him to a pitching staff that already has four other dependable starters, I think it’s very possible that Pedro will spend a couple more starts in the minors to gain a little more consistency before he is brought up to Philadelphia.

 

Final Note: The winning pitcher for the Columbus Clippers Friday night was none other than former Phillies prospect Carlos Carrasco. Just two days ago, Carrasco was part of the deal that sent Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to Philadelphia, and four prospects, including Carrasco, to the Cleveland Indians organization. Carrasco went 5 1/3 innings, giving up four runs, while striking out eight in his Cleveland organization debut.