PHILLIES: Breakdown of Trade Rumors

Been a pretty crazy last 48 hours if I do say so myself.

Kyle Kendrick gets optioned to Triple-A, Jamie Moyer gets hurt and placed on the disabled list, Phillies fall to seven games back in the NL East, and last but not least, ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE.

Well, everything except the last one.

Sort of.

Only three games over .500 at the end of July, the hands of the Phillies organization are reaching towards the panic button, and slowly but surely, reaching to push it (and for good reason). With Kendrick and Moyer out of the fold for presumably the rest of the season, that leaves THREE pitchers (Halladay, Hamels, Blanton) who can be deemed as starters based on their big league careers. As most of you know, a normal major league pitching rotation is usually satisfied with FIVE pitchers.

By means of basic subtraction, that means the Phillies have TWO spots they have to fill.

Unless he is dealt, for the time being it looks like one of those spots belongs to J.A Happ. After pitching three scoreless innings with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday, Happ was abruptly pulled from his start vs. Indianapolis. In his postgame press conference, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said that Happ “will be helping us”. Can’t be too sure what is meant by that, especially when it is said by the Good Ole’ Southern Boy himself, but  for the sake of the post, the likelihood of Happ being on a plane to St. Louis as the Phillies potential starter on Saturday night against Colorado is high.

The second spot, well, that’s not so clear. By process of elimination (No Moyer, No Kendrick, No Carpenter), that spot belongs to..VANCE WORLEY. Not really a household name, so if you don’t know him, that’s okay, you can keep your fan card. With a 9-3 record at Reading this year, Worley being added to the big league roster instead of one of the stockpile of pitchers at Lehigh Valley completes the unusual move of promoting a Double-A pitcher straight to the majors for his big league debut.

Unusual, yes it was, but it does happen. Unfortunately for Worley,  it may not get that far.

When Moyer went down with a “strained” left elbow around 8:45 P.M ET Tuesday, that was most likely the cue for GM Ruben Amaro to get on the phone and begin to take the steps on pulling the trigger on a deal to obtain a top-notch starting pitcher that has been speculated about for the past two months. And low and behold, by the end of the night, talks with the Houston Astros to obtain ace SP Roy Oswalt were considered “hot and heavy” by multiple sources, including ESPN Baseball Insider Jayson Stark and FOX Sports Baseball Columnist Ken Rosenthal.

So is Oswalt to the Phillies a done deal?

Probably not, there are multiple obstacles.

The biggest one: Oswalt demanding that his potential new home pick up his $16 million option for 2012 is probably the biggest one.  When all is said and done, that could be too steep of a price for the Phillies who will also have Joe Blanton ($8.5 Mil in 2012) under contract and will most likely try to resign Cole Hamels after a 2011 season where he will be making $9.5 million.

That’s a lot of money to be invested in three arms that are not relatively fresh by MLB standards.

Plus, it’s not like money grows on trees. Well, unless you are the New York Yankees..

Also, Ruben Amaro and company seem to have a contingency plan if the Oswalt deal falls by the wayside.  The Phillies are reportedly in talks with multiple teams about acquiring Arizona’s Dan Haren, Oakland’s Ben Sheets, or Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie. Truth be told, a deal for any of these pitchers might be more attractive than Oswalt at the end of the day because of a lower asking price and cap-friendly contracts.

With all that has been speculated recently (players at the four main levels of organization have been mentioned) on what the Phillies would have to give up, it’s almost impossible to predict who could be in the deal when a deal is done (and it will be done). However, what we do know is that it is going to take a collection of players, most likely three or four in total, and lastly, another team (Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have been said to be interested) to help facilitate a trade that would bring Roy Oswalt (or Dan Haren) and prospects to Philadelphia. All things considered, I still think they are leaning towards that kind of blockbuster deal rather than a one-year rental on Sheets, Guthrie, or Jake Westbrook.

With that said, here’s the breakdown of who has been mentioned and how they factor into a possible trade for a top-notch starter.

WHAT THE PHILLIES WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO GIVE UP

Possibly 1 Everyday Big Leaguer: Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez

1 or 2 Guys who are MLB Ready (or close): J.A Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo, Mike Zagurski, Drew Carpenter, John Mayberry Jr., Joe Savery, Vance Worley

1 Top Prospect: Jared Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Brody Colvin, Anthony Gose, Phillipe Aumont, Matthew Way

One of the players who is noticeably absent from that breakdown is Domonic Brown. The rationale there is if the Phillies didn’t include him for deals to obtain Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay, then they won’t include him on a deal for any of these available pitchers, especially since his stock has only grown since Philadelphia pulled off a their last blockbuster this offseason.

Now, it’s quite possible that Brown will be moved. Not denying that. However, I’m going to go out there on a limb and say that it will be restricted to just the Phillies clubhouse, where he will prepare to make his big league debut for the organization that has brought him up through the ranks over the last three years.

Even with this estimate though, and the Brown prediction, so many others are fair game. There are 100+ players within the Phillies organization, and maybe 10 have the “untouchable” label that is so difficult to attain.

Then again, Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek was considered “untouchable” this time last year.

And look what happened to him.

Updates will be given throughout the night..

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

6:30 PM WED: As reported by Phillies MLB.COM Beat Writer Todd Zolecki, Vance Worley was added as an extra long-reliever, much like Drew Carpenter’s recent 24-hour role with the Phillies. Philadelphia now has FOUR starters (Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ when he’s added) on their roster. No starter announced for Saturday yet, which was Kendrick’s spot.

11:45 PM WED: Phillies scouts are apparently present for Dan Haren’s start tonight. Not surprising, since CSN’s Jim Salisbury believes the Phillies may stick with what they have in terms if pitching if they can’t get Haren or Roy Oswalt. I still think they get one of the two mentioned, but if that is impossible, there is NO WAY they stand pat. In fact, I’m going to go further. Here are two other names who have popped up in trade rumors because of their alleged availability. Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona and Arizona’s Edwin Jackson.

PHILLIES: A Look at the Farm System

With the trade deadline less than a month away, one part of the Phillies organization that is surely under a large microscope is their farm system. Months removed from trading six of their top 15 prospects in deals to acquire both Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, the current Phillies prospects are not as highly-regarded as they once were. However,  if a trade to acquire a certain utility player or pitching help is to be made, then it is important to recognize those who are not at the big league level within the organization.

This look into the minor leagues is not gauged on who is ranked the top prospects by baseball insiders, but is based on the players who may be gaining notoriety inside the organization or in baseball circles because of their reputation, talent, performance at the minor league level, or trade value come July 31st.

Phillies Minor Leaguers: 10 Prospects To Watch

Stats Updated as of July 5th, 2010.

: OF Domonic Brown: A given on this list.  Not only the #1 overall prospect in the Phillies organization, but ESPN recently ranked him as the #1 overall prospect in all of baseball. Even with all the accolades he’s already received, his play is showing that the hype is warranted. The 22 year-old has graduated through three levels of the minor leagues the last year and a half. He was probably the Eastern League MVP at Double-A Reading through two months, but was promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the middle of June. Since then, in 12 G in Triple-A, his .405 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBI’s is just flat out ridiculous. So is his overall athleticism, in which he was a former baseball and football recruit for the University of Miami before signing with the Phillies.

: P Jared Cosart: Top 100 prospect who was selected to 2010 Futures game in Anaheim along with Brown. 7-3 record at Single-A Lakewood with a 3.79 ERA and 77 K’s. Upper 90’s Fastball. Currently on the disabled list.

: 1B Jonathan Singleton: Just 18 years old when the 2010 season started. .347 BA, 10 HR, 48 RBI’s at Single-A Lakewood. May have biggest upside besides Brown, and has had the biggest rise this year in baseball circles out of any other member of the Phillies farm system. Will be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball at the start of next season. With Ryan Howard under contract until 2014, if the Phillies were to be involved in a blockbuster trade at any point, Singelton will most likely be the centerpiece if the team involved wants prospects.

: C Sebastian Valle: After the Phillies dealt Lou Marson and Travis D’Arnaud in the last year, that made Valle the top catching prospect in the organization. Remember, he’s still just 19 years old, playing the position that is the most difficult to flourish at when it comes to big league production. .265 BA, 9 HR, 4 RBI’s at Single-A Lakewood shows promise.

: OF Anthony Gose: By far the fastest player in the organization. Had 76 SB in 2008 with Single-A Lakewood. Solid defensively but still very raw at the plate. At 19 years old, he’s at Advanced-A Clearwater with a ways to go.

: P Phillipe Aumont: Top Prospect that the Phillies got back from Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade. The pre-season top 100 prospect in all of baseball drew much criticism when he went 1-6 in two months at Double-A Reading this season. Aumont got sent down to Advanced-A Clearwater in June, where he is 0-0 in 5 games with a 4.91 ERA.

: OF Tyson Gillies: Another highly regarded prospect acquired in the Cliff Lee deal to Seattle. A high energy guy that impressed in Spring Training but has battled injuries and inconsistency all year at Double-A Reading (.238 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI’s in 26 games).

: OF John Mayberry Jr: Made his debut with the Phillies last year, but struggled to make consistent contact and has spent the entire 2010 season so far at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Got off to a hot start, but since enduring a knee/ankle injury in the middle of June, he’s really struggled. Stat-line curently sitting at .241 BA, 10 HR, 42 RBI’s through 74 games. Behind Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and now Domonic Brown on the organizational depth chart at OF, a move for an infielder to fill-in for Chase Utley and Placido Polanco may include Mayberry. That is, if the teams actually want him.

: P Joe Savery: Former 1^st rounder (2007) out of Rice University. Had 16 wins last year combined at Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but as struggled mightily this year as a starter with the Iron Pigs (1-8) and has been converted into a reliever at Triple-A.

: 3B/OF Anthony Hewitt: Former first rounder (2008) out of HS. Has struggled in 2 years in the minors, but is still very raw, and is finally figure out minor league pitching (.271, 7 HR, 33 RBIs at  Single-A Lakewood). Doesn’t have a position yet.

Others You Should Know:

- P Andrew Carpenter: (25 years old. Made big league debut with the Philadelphia in 2009, and started off the 2010 season on the big league 25-man roster as a member of the Phillies bullpen. 7-6 with the 3.21 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh Valley)

- 1B Matthew Rizzoti: (24 years old. 1B prospect that has come out of nowhere this year at Double-A Reading. Hitting a team high .366 with 11 HR and 43 RBI’s since being called up from Advanced-A Clearwater in May. )

- SS Freddy Galvis: (20 years old. Probably the best defensive prospect in the organization. It is believed that the 2010 Eastern League All-star play SS at the big league level right now from a defensive standpoint. Struggles at the dish but is making improvements. .226 BA, 2 HR, 28 RBI’s at Double-A Reading.

- P J.C Ramirez: (21 years old. 2-1 at Double-A Reading in first season with the organization after being the 3^rd prospect acquired by the Phillies via Seattle for Cliff Lee)

- 3B Harold Garcia ( 24 years old. Advanced-A Clearwater. Set team-record with a 36 game hitting streak earlier this season. Named the Phillies minor league player of the month for June.)

- P Jesus Sanchez: (21 years old. 7-4 with a 2.67 ERA at Advanced-A Clearwater)

- P Trevor May: ( 20 years old. A pre-season top 10 prospect in the organization. Has underperformed at bit, 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA at Advanced-A Clearwater)

- OF Cody Overbeck: (24 years old. 9^th round draft pick in 2008. .302 BA, 11 HR, 41 RBI’s at Advanced-A Clearwater)

- P Matthew Way: ( 23 Years old. 7-4 record with a 3.65 ERA at SS Single-A Lakewood)