PHILLIES: Breakdown of Trade Rumors

Been a pretty crazy last 48 hours if I do say so myself.

Kyle Kendrick gets optioned to Triple-A, Jamie Moyer gets hurt and placed on the disabled list, Phillies fall to seven games back in the NL East, and last but not least, ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE.

Well, everything except the last one.

Sort of.

Only three games over .500 at the end of July, the hands of the Phillies organization are reaching towards the panic button, and slowly but surely, reaching to push it (and for good reason). With Kendrick and Moyer out of the fold for presumably the rest of the season, that leaves THREE pitchers (Halladay, Hamels, Blanton) who can be deemed as starters based on their big league careers. As most of you know, a normal major league pitching rotation is usually satisfied with FIVE pitchers.

By means of basic subtraction, that means the Phillies have TWO spots they have to fill.

Unless he is dealt, for the time being it looks like one of those spots belongs to J.A Happ. After pitching three scoreless innings with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday, Happ was abruptly pulled from his start vs. Indianapolis. In his postgame press conference, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said that Happ “will be helping us”. Can’t be too sure what is meant by that, especially when it is said by the Good Ole’ Southern Boy himself, but  for the sake of the post, the likelihood of Happ being on a plane to St. Louis as the Phillies potential starter on Saturday night against Colorado is high.

The second spot, well, that’s not so clear. By process of elimination (No Moyer, No Kendrick, No Carpenter), that spot belongs to..VANCE WORLEY. Not really a household name, so if you don’t know him, that’s okay, you can keep your fan card. With a 9-3 record at Reading this year, Worley being added to the big league roster instead of one of the stockpile of pitchers at Lehigh Valley completes the unusual move of promoting a Double-A pitcher straight to the majors for his big league debut.

Unusual, yes it was, but it does happen. Unfortunately for Worley,  it may not get that far.

When Moyer went down with a “strained” left elbow around 8:45 P.M ET Tuesday, that was most likely the cue for GM Ruben Amaro to get on the phone and begin to take the steps on pulling the trigger on a deal to obtain a top-notch starting pitcher that has been speculated about for the past two months. And low and behold, by the end of the night, talks with the Houston Astros to obtain ace SP Roy Oswalt were considered “hot and heavy” by multiple sources, including ESPN Baseball Insider Jayson Stark and FOX Sports Baseball Columnist Ken Rosenthal.

So is Oswalt to the Phillies a done deal?

Probably not, there are multiple obstacles.

The biggest one: Oswalt demanding that his potential new home pick up his $16 million option for 2012 is probably the biggest one.  When all is said and done, that could be too steep of a price for the Phillies who will also have Joe Blanton ($8.5 Mil in 2012) under contract and will most likely try to resign Cole Hamels after a 2011 season where he will be making $9.5 million.

That’s a lot of money to be invested in three arms that are not relatively fresh by MLB standards.

Plus, it’s not like money grows on trees. Well, unless you are the New York Yankees..

Also, Ruben Amaro and company seem to have a contingency plan if the Oswalt deal falls by the wayside.  The Phillies are reportedly in talks with multiple teams about acquiring Arizona’s Dan Haren, Oakland’s Ben Sheets, or Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie. Truth be told, a deal for any of these pitchers might be more attractive than Oswalt at the end of the day because of a lower asking price and cap-friendly contracts.

With all that has been speculated recently (players at the four main levels of organization have been mentioned) on what the Phillies would have to give up, it’s almost impossible to predict who could be in the deal when a deal is done (and it will be done). However, what we do know is that it is going to take a collection of players, most likely three or four in total, and lastly, another team (Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have been said to be interested) to help facilitate a trade that would bring Roy Oswalt (or Dan Haren) and prospects to Philadelphia. All things considered, I still think they are leaning towards that kind of blockbuster deal rather than a one-year rental on Sheets, Guthrie, or Jake Westbrook.

With that said, here’s the breakdown of who has been mentioned and how they factor into a possible trade for a top-notch starter.

WHAT THE PHILLIES WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO GIVE UP

Possibly 1 Everyday Big Leaguer: Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez

1 or 2 Guys who are MLB Ready (or close): J.A Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo, Mike Zagurski, Drew Carpenter, John Mayberry Jr., Joe Savery, Vance Worley

1 Top Prospect: Jared Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Brody Colvin, Anthony Gose, Phillipe Aumont, Matthew Way

One of the players who is noticeably absent from that breakdown is Domonic Brown. The rationale there is if the Phillies didn’t include him for deals to obtain Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay, then they won’t include him on a deal for any of these available pitchers, especially since his stock has only grown since Philadelphia pulled off a their last blockbuster this offseason.

Now, it’s quite possible that Brown will be moved. Not denying that. However, I’m going to go out there on a limb and say that it will be restricted to just the Phillies clubhouse, where he will prepare to make his big league debut for the organization that has brought him up through the ranks over the last three years.

Even with this estimate though, and the Brown prediction, so many others are fair game. There are 100+ players within the Phillies organization, and maybe 10 have the “untouchable” label that is so difficult to attain.

Then again, Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek was considered “untouchable” this time last year.

And look what happened to him.

Updates will be given throughout the night..

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6:30 PM WED: As reported by Phillies MLB.COM Beat Writer Todd Zolecki, Vance Worley was added as an extra long-reliever, much like Drew Carpenter’s recent 24-hour role with the Phillies. Philadelphia now has FOUR starters (Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ when he’s added) on their roster. No starter announced for Saturday yet, which was Kendrick’s spot.

11:45 PM WED: Phillies scouts are apparently present for Dan Haren’s start tonight. Not surprising, since CSN’s Jim Salisbury believes the Phillies may stick with what they have in terms if pitching if they can’t get Haren or Roy Oswalt. I still think they get one of the two mentioned, but if that is impossible, there is NO WAY they stand pat. In fact, I’m going to go further. Here are two other names who have popped up in trade rumors because of their alleged availability. Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona and Arizona’s Edwin Jackson.

PHILLIES: Draft Drama

For those who don’t know, the Major League Baseball draft starts tonight.

With that said, WHEN Bryce Harper is selected as the #1 overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, that will start the trickle down effect of the 50 round selection process, deciding the fate of over 2,000 baseball prospects who have entered their names into the draft.

Needless to say, from a sport vs. sport perspective, the next three days will be much different then you will see in the NBA draft process (2 rounds), or even the NFL draft process (7 rounds).

For the Phillies, their first selection will be in the first round, in which they hold the rights to the 27th overall pick. Since it’s virtually impossible to do a mock draft with the amount of potential prospects and the added element of actually signing them, at this point of the process, the best way do a “draft breakdown” is to break down their past draft success, and some of the areas of need for the organization.

First of all, if you look at the Phillies roster, you will see that a good number of the guys that compile the 25-man and even the 40-man roster are homegrown, meaning they were drafted by Philadelphia. Considering the Phillies have won three straight NL East titles and have gone to the past two World Series while primarily the same nucleus of players, that’s a testament to the members of the Philadelphia organization, and most importantly, their scouting department.

Here are some of the notable players that the Phillies have drafted and kept within the organization in previous years.

One of the many members of the Phillies farm system to make a splash in Philly

1996: Jimmy Rollins (2nd round)

1998: Ryan Madson (9th round)

2000: Chase Utley (1st round)

2001: Ryan Howard (5th round)

2002: Cole Hamels (1st round)

2003: Kyle Kendrick (7th round)

2006: Dominic Brown (The Phillies current top prospect was drafted in the 20th round)

Looking at the the list, which includes two MVP’s (Rollins, Howard), a perennial MVP candidate (Utley), a potential ace (Hamels), and a potential five-tool outfielder (Brown), that’s a pretty impressive job done by the Phillies front office.

They will have their hands full this year though, as their are really two areas of the Phillies farm system that should and could be addressed in the first round.

Catcher: The departures of Jason Jaramillo, Lou Marson, and Travis D’Arnaud in the last two years via trades have left the Phillies without a premiere, young catching prospect who is near big league ready. From a talent perspective, the only one who right now projects as a future major leaguer is Sebastian Valle, who at 19 years of age, is still at least two or three years away from making a contribution at the big league level. Other than Valle, the Phillies do not have much of an emphasis on “future” when it comes to the catching position (no offense to guys like Paul Hoover or Kevin Nelson).

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: JR Yasmani Grandal (University of Miami), SR Mike Kvasnicka (University of Minnesota), Kellin Deglan (Canada), Justin O’Connor (HS)

Pitcher: There is always a need for pitching, especially if the talent is there on the board when you are selection. For the Phillies though, it’s also a need. A year removed from trading away their there top pitching prospects in Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Knapp in deals to obtain Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay,  the jury is still out in regards to the pitchers within the Phillies minor league system. Top pitching prospect Phillipe Aumont was just demoted from Double-A Reading for his struggles, and both Drew Carpenter and Joe Savery (1st round pick in 2007) haven’t quite lived up to their billing as future contributors for Philadelphia. When it comes to this years draft, if there is a year to take a chance on a pitcher, it’s in 2010, as two pitchers with local ties are slated to be selected in the back end of the first round. Both Jesse Biddle (Germantown Friends School HS Senior), and Cam Bedrosian (son of former Phillies pitcher Steve Bedrosian) have risen up draft boards in the last few weeks, and it likely that at least one of them will still be there when the 27th selection in the first round rolls along.

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: Biddle (Projected Pick), Bedrosian, JR Drew Pomeranz (University of Mississippi)

Other: The Phillies have everyone in their starting infield locked up until at least 2012, and they have spent their last two of their last three top picks (Kelly Dugan and Anthony Hewitt) on infielders. With that said, I don’t see them addressing needs within the infield in the first round. In terms of outfielders, a lot relies on how the Phillies negotiations are going with signing Jayson Werth to a long-term deal. The Phillies still have their top prospect in Brown along with John Mayberry Jr. buried on the outfield depth chart below Werth, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez, and have a few others, including two speedsters in Quentin Berry and Anthony Gose, who have the potential to make a big league impact in a couple years. However, if a couple of the premiere OF prospects in this years draft end up falling to the bottom half of round one, such as HS senior Austin Wilson, things could get a little interesting.

Projection: Biddle or Bedrosian (whoever is still on the board or they think they have a better chance to sign). If that isn’t possible, then their highest ranked catcher still on the board should be the pick. If Wilson drops all the way to 27 though, his talent may be too much to pass up.

Should be a fun couple days..

PHILLIES: Week One Spring Training Recap

We are almost a month away from Opening Day, and already, just a week into Grapefruit and Cactus League play, there are some rumblings coming from Clearwater that may have an impact when looking at the Phillies 25-man roster when they march into Washington to start off the 2010 campaign. Here are three things that can be taken from the opening week of Spring Training.

1. Kendrick vs. Moyer

Can Kendrick's Spring Training performance be the deciding factor on the final spot in the starting rotation?

This may not be the Battle of Gettysburg or anything, but this battle for the fifth and final spot in the starting rotation has arguably the main daily headline coming out of Phillies’ camp so far this Spring Training. On one side you have a 47-year old ageless wonder with 250+ wins and a professional baseball resume that dates back to before all four writers of The Philly Phour were born. Crazy, I know. On the other side, you have a ex-rookie phenom, who with a new and improved arsenal of pitches, could in fact be entering the twilight of his career at the age of 25, something you certainly can’t say for the first candidate. With that said, while Moyer’s body of work certainly makes him the favorite to retain this position that he held for much of the 2009 season, in this first week of Spring Training action, Kendrick has elevated the level of competition in this battle. As an obvious beneficiary of 2 months of training with Roy Halladay, Kendrick’s 5 scoreless innings of work less far has not only generated a certain around Brighthouse Field, but has left little margin for error for Moyer, who is slated to pitch his second “B” game tomorrow while still recovering from off-season groin surgery. I know many are expecting the man making a cool 8 million a year (Moyer) to prevail, but look for this battle to develop into a full-fledged war in the next two weeks, especially if Kendrick’s dominant performance continues.

2. The Prodigal Son

If somebody would have asked any baseball insider to name the player who would lead the Phillies in BA, hits, total bases, and outfield assists at this point of Spring Training, I doubt that Dominic Brown would be mentioned before the likes of Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, and Jayson Werth, but when you look at the 2010 Phillies Spring Training stat sheet, the Phillies #1 overall prospect stands alone on top. Brown, who at the age of 20 is far from a finished product, has been reckoned to the likes of 5-tool players of the past such as Daryl Strawberry (without the drug use), making him a top-20 prospect in all of baseball. Brown undoubtably has some expectations to live up, since the Phillies decided to choose him over former top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek when trading for Roy Halladay, and may not get a chance to live up to them this season sitting behind three 2009 all-stars on the depth chart. However, if this prodigal son of the Phillies’ organization continues to play at such a high level, a 2010 big-league debut may become a reality, especially if Shane Victorino’s current injury woes continue and the 38-year old body of Raul Ibanez decides to shut down like it did during the second half of last season.

3. Roy Halladay

In a year-long process that ended up sending seven top prospects and the savior of the 2009 playoffs to new destinations, the Phillies finally got the man the wanted in their clubhouse. This same man, in reality, holds the fate of the organizations success for the next five years in his hands (right hand to be precise). Talk about pressure. For Roy Halladay though, who went through the first of many tests as the newest ace of the Phillies this week, the results were promising. Not surprising, I know, Halladay has done that for much of his career, but this test was a little different. In Toronto, he was dealing the with the equivalent of multiple choice questions. In this context, starting in Clearwater, he moved onto essays and short answers, and by throwing two scoreless innings in his first outing and receiving praise from all those around the organization, Halladay could be primary author to the storybook script of the Phillies season when all is said and done.

Other News and Notes:

: J.C Romero, while on schedule, will most likely miss the first two weeks of the season while recovering from off-season surgery.

: Shane Victorino’s shoulder is still being monitored, meaning his playing time will vary for the next week or so. According to all reports, this is nothing more than a precautionary measure, and the Flyin’ Hawaiian will be more than ready for Opening Day.

: While Halladay, Kendrick, and Cole Hamels have all been considered bright spots in camp when it comes to pitching, Joe Blanton and Jose Contreras both struggled in their Spring Training debuts, giving up 9 earned runs combined in just 5.2 innings of work. This is more concerning for Contreras, who should take up a great role in the bullpen, especially in the beginning of the season with the health of Brad Lidge and J.C Romero in question.

PHILLIES: The “Halladay” Season

While it has not been finalized yet after being announced just less than 48 hours ago, the deal that has been rumored to go down for the past half a year is actually about to happen.

The deal that I am talking about is something involving the Philadelphia Phillies and them dealing for a former Cy Young Pitcher by the name of Roy Halladay.

Ring any bells?

If it doesn’t, go into the Philly Phour archives and read over ever single post I wrote in the month of July, and then it will refresh your memory.

So, the trade that was destined to take place is actually doing so. Now, I hate writing about posts about issues that are not finalized, but even if one of the players fails a physical (which is rumored to have happened), this trade is going to happen. So with that said, here is what the final trade details look like involving not three, but four teams (opinions to follow).

Philadelphia gets: Halladay, three Seattle Mariners prospects (Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Juan Ramirez), and six-million dollars in cash from Toronto

Toronto gets: Two Phillies prospects (Kyle Drabek and Travis D’arnaud) and Athletics top prospect Brett Wallace

Oakland gets: Phillies prospect Michael Taylor

Seattle gets: Cliff Lee

With all the details out there on the table, here’s my general opinion on the deal, in which my feelings have ranged from excited to bittersweet over the past two days.

THE GOOD

 

The Phillies now have arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last five years

By getting Halladay, and signing him to an three-year extension (with a possible 4th and 5th year option), the Phillies window of opportunity for another World Series title has been opened for another five seasons. As a current Phillies fan, you have to be happy about having a top 3-5 pitcher in all of baseball for the next few years as players like Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard are entering the prime of their own respective careers. With Halladay, those mentioned above, and guys such as Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies will be in contention for a championship every year for the next half a decade. There is no question about that. 

There’s no doubt that the Phillies gave up alot in this deal, but they didn’t just get Halladay in this trade. All three of the prospects the Phillies got from Seattle were highly-regarded (all top 10 in the organization). With Aumont, the Phillies get a pitcher who was former first-round pick in 2007 (same year and round as Drabek) and was the 33rd ranked prospect in all of baseball at the start of the 2009 season. Needless to say, the kid is good, so before you start sending Ruben Amaro Jr. hate letters for dealing Kyle Drabek, take a look at Aumont.

Also in the deal, the Phillies got an outfielder in Tyson Gillies and a pitcher in Juan Ramirez. With Ramirez, the Phillies are getting a guy with a high-ceiling, but still has plenty of room to grow (very similar to Jason Knapp who the Phillies dealt for Cliff Lee). Gillies, who is comparable to Taylor in terms of worth for their respective organizations, was ranked anywhere from 4th the 6th out of all the Mariners prospects, and was the 2nd-ranked outfielder in the organization. In comparison to that, Taylor was ranked anywhere from being the 3rd to the 6th best Phillies prospect, and was regarded as the 2nd best outfield prospect in the organization. While Taylor definitely has the super-star potential that Gillies may not have, he was expendable due to the fact the Phillies have a better outfield prospect in Dominic Brown waiting in the wings behind the three all-stars (Werth, Victorino, Ibanez) that currently patrol the Phillies outfield.

With that said, for those who are claiming that the Phillies traded away their entire future for just 3-5 years of Roy Halladay, think again. Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez will make an impact on the Phillies organization in both the Minor and Major League level of baseball. Mark my words.

THE BAD

Parting ways with Lee, Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud makes the Phillies look like they are dumping their future for the present. In a sense, they are right. Truth be told, I do question the Phillies virtually trading off Lee for Halladay. Based on track record, there is no doubt that Halladay is the better pitcher, but there will come a time that all the innings pitched by Halladay will start to take a toll on his body.  I sure hope that time comes later rather than sooner, or this deal will be best described as the demise of the Philadelphia Phillies. 

I know a primary reason on why the Phillies in a sense chose Halladay over Lee was because of the ability to sign Halladay to a long-term extension. Each player had a different mentality. Halladay wanted to sign a long-term deal with a contender (Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels) and Lee, with one more year with the Phillies, wanted to test the open market. The smart decision was to sign Halladay in fear that a year down the road Lee would spurn the Phillies for an absurd offer from the Yankees or Red Sox, and they followed that trail. 

Understandable.

However, the way the city of Philadelphia embraced Lee, especially during the playoff run, can’t be ignored. The Phillies fans loved Lee, and Lee loved Philadelphia, and for good reason. The Phillies gave Lee his best chance to win a World Series in his career, and Lee’s performance (and Chase Utley’s) almost got them past the Yankees to that point. Undoubtably, Lee was spectacular in his term with the Phillies, especially during the playoffs,  which something you can’t say about Halladay, because quite frankly, he’s never been to the playoffs before. 

It’s not just about dealing Lee in this trade. While I’m a little sad to see a possible future ace in Drabek and a potential all-star corner outfielder in Taylor go, I understand, because the Phillies did get two prospects back that have the potential to fill those same roles in the organization. I am though a little skeptical of the Phillies trading Travis D’arnaud. Now, I usually wouldn’t question an organization dealing a player who was in single-A for the majority of the season, but with Philadelphia it’s a little different. In the Cliff Lee deal, the Phillies dealt their top catching prospect, Lou Marson, to the Indians. Combine that with dealing D’arnaud in this trade, it leaves 19-year old Sebastian Valle as the top catching “prospect” in the organization, who is still a good four years away from contributing at the big league level. 

In any event, the need to deal for a relatively young catcher in the coming weeks is very clear, as Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schneider, and Paul Hoover are all on the wrong side of 30 and have limited value when it comes to the future of the Philadelphia Phillies. 

VERDICT

Essentially, the Phillies traded seven of their top-15 prospects (Drabek, Taylor, D’Arnaud, Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, and Jason Donald) over the last six months for Roy Halladay and three other prospects. Just seeing that on paper, I’d still do it.

However, the process is very simple. In the next 3-5 years, or as long as Roy Halladay is with the Phillies, two things need to happen for the trade to be justified.

1. Roy Halladay has to win a Cy Young as member of the Phillies.

2. The Phillies have to win a World Series in that time span.

Of course, one of those two things can also satisfy some critics, but overall, by trading players that were once deemed “untouchable”, Ruben Amaro Jr. is implying that the Phillies future is now.

One final thing.

Roy Halladay, I hope you are ready. Philadelphia is a tad different than Toronto. 

This post will be updated once the trade goes final. 

PHILLIES: The Newest Phil-”lee”

Just 24 hours ago, Phillies fans like myself still thought that Roy Halladay was going to be on his way to Philadelphia at the end of the trade deadline. Now, the only time he will be coming to the City of Brotherly Love is as a visitor or if he secures a spot in the opposing teams’ dugout.

Welcome Cliff Lee. A deal that basically was developed, executed, and finalized before you can clap you hands now will most likely be the trade that defines the 2009 Trade Deadline. Headlines will read “2008 AL Cy Young going to the reigning World Champs.”

Wow, does that sound great.

Or does it?

Here is the good, the bad, and the truth in the biggest trade for the Philadelphia Phillies since they acquired Freddy Garcia (and you know how that turned out).

The Good:

Just look at this trade on the surface. Cliff Lee (2008 AL Cy Young Award winner) and OF Ben Francisco traded to the Phillies for four minor league prospects. Wow. The Phillies got starting pitching help in an ace and the right-handed bat off the bench they’ve been searching for all year without giving up one person from the big league roster that is 18 games above .500 and has a seven-game lead in the NL East. Not only that, the Phillies didn’t even give up any of their three “untouchables”, as Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor are all still members of the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Even J.A Happ, a potential rookie of the year candidate in the NL for the Phillies, was left out of the deal and is, for right now, staying in Philly. That’s a luxury they certainly wouldn’t have had if Roy Halladay were to make his home at Citizens Bank Park. Speaking of Halladay, it’s quite possible that for the Phillies, Lee may have been a better option all together than “Doc”. Lee is younger (30) than Halladay (32), cheaper (5 million a year in contrast to Halladay’s 15.75 million), and demanded far less value than Halladay would (Toronto wanted J.A Happ, Drabek and Brown in return). Even with acquiring Lee over the better overall pitcher in Halladay, the Phillies pitching staff is now certainly better, and is as deep as ever.  A Cole Hamels/Cliff Lee one-two punch combined with Joe Blanton, Happ, Jamie Moyer, and Pedro Martinez finishing out the back end of the rotation will provide the star-power and consistency to be the among the best rotations in the baseball. Add that with the best offense in baseball, and there is no reason that the Phillies shouldn’t be the favorite to represent the NL in the World Series for the second season in a row.

The Bad:

(Note, this is me playing devil’s advocate)

Here is where my pessimistic Philadelphia sports attitude sets in. If the Phillies attitude is to win now, which they showed by traded four highly regarded prospects, why didn’t they just go for the touchdown pass with Roy Halladay instead of going for the field goal in Cliff Lee. Lee’s 22-3 season last year could simply be a case of a “one-year wonder”, as he is below .500 with a 7-9 record this year. For Halladay, who is widely regarded as one of the top-3 best pitchers in the league, and may go down as one of the best pitcher of our generation, Toronto was asking for J.A Happ, the Phillies top overall prospect in Dominic Brown, and the so-called pitching phenom Kyle Drabek. Instead Phillies gave up four prospects for Lee, with fellow pitcher Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and Jason Donald all ranked as higher prospects than Drabek by Baseball America. Combine that with the loss of 18 year-old flamethrower Jason Knapp (who scouts have compared to Jonathan Papelbon), the Phillies just dealt four players who were thought as the future of the Philadelphia baseball. If last year was just a fluke, and Lee continues his sub .500 performance of this year and basically every other year until his contract with Philadelphia ends in 2010, not only would that close the window of opportunity to bring another World Series parade down Broad Street, but the loss of these integral parts of the organization could set back the Phillies for five year, maybe longer.

The Truth:

For GM Ruben Amaro, this was the perfect trade to make. Lee will obviously solidify the rotation and strike fear in basically every NL team who could face the Phillies in a game, let alone a playoff series. On the other hand, Ben Francisco was a huge part of why the deal is a winner for the Phillies. Francisco provides a right-handed bat off the bench with power (10 HR) and versatility (can play both corner outfield positions), and will allow John Mayberry Jr. some more time to grow as an everyday player at a lower level, as he will most likely be optioned back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Francisco’s power from the right side of the plate, combined with Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs from the left side of the plate, gives the Phillies offensive flexibility, as if they needed it.

 

Acquiring Cliff Lee gives the Phillies an "ace" in the starting rotation

While the Phillies did get Cliff Lee, they did in fact give up a lot. Donald, the organizations third ranked prospect, and Marson, the organizations fourth ranked prospect, talent and maturity-wise are ready to play for Indians big league team right now. Also, both are projected to be above-average MLB players for ten years. Knapp had the highest ceiling of any Phillies prospect (more than Brown, Taylor or Drabek), and still has so much room to grow as a teenager. Carrasco, the wildcard in this, is still considered a top of the rotation starter by the Indians after struggling this season. The truth of the matter is that he’s allowed to struggle, he’s 22 years old, people seem to forget that, though the Indians obviously didn’t.

 

The truth is though, if the Phillies were to give up any of the highly regarded prospects, these were the ones they wanted to give up. It’s nothing against the four of them, it just seems like they made the pieces of the puzzle fit perfectly. Donald, behind Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley for another five years, would just be a career backup for the Phillies and would have no value and diminished skill when Rollins and Utley are past their prime. Marson, probably the most costly of the departed, was viewed as the catcher of the future for Cleveland, as they are also shopping Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach. He was the huge centerpiece of the trade. Knapp, the other centerpiece of the trade, is at least three years away from making an impact at the big league level, which conflicts with the Phillies three-five year window to win another World Series. Lastly, Carrasco, while highly regarded, struggled in Triple-A and was upset at the organization in June when they promoted fellow Triple-A teammate Antonio Bastardo instead of him to replace Brett Myers in Philadephia. A change of scenery was probably the best scenario for Carrasco.

With all that said, it was worth it. By trading for Cliff Lee instead of Roy Halladay, the Phillies retaining their top prospects in the organization while keeping their entire big league nucleus intact. That seems like a good combination for success.

Or so we hope.

PHILLIES: Trade Deadline Options

As I write this, it is Monday, July 27th. On Saturday morning at 12:01, August 1st, as it has been for every year in the past two decades, the trade deadline will have been completed. For people who have minimum math skills, that means in less than five days, the public will know if Roy Halladay, or anybody else for that matter, will be added to the Phillies roster via trade. If J.P Richardi’s inclination after the Blue Jays rejected the Phillies offer on Sunday is correct, and Halladay is not dealt, here are some other players who could see themselves heading to Philadelphia.

Plan B?

Cleveland Indians SP Cliff Lee: The Phillies “Plan B” if a trade for Halladay doesn’t work out. Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner, has pitched very well this year even though his 7-9 record doesn’t show it. While his record is under .500, his 3.14 E.R.A has proved that he still has the stuff that made him the ace of the Indians staff last year. In contrast to Halladay, he’s a much cheaper option (only due just over 4 million next year), and would be more willing to sign a long term deal with the Phillies. Unlike his current team the Indians, the Phillies are a contender to go to the playoffs every year with guys like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard a lock to play behind Lee for the next three years if he is headed to Philadelphia. While the Phillies would probably still have to give up a lot for Lee (my prediction is J.A Happ, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Donald), this trade would allow the Phillies to keep their top two prospects, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown.

Seattle Mariners SP Jarrod Washburn: A once-ace for the Angels in the early part of the decade, Washburn has resurrected his career this season with the Seattle Mariners. Just one year removed from going 5-14 and contemplating retirement, Washburn is 8-6 with an impressive 2.71 E.R.A this season with Seattle, and has overtaken Eric Bedard (someone the Phillies were interested in before he went on the D.L last week) as the second-best pitcher on the Mariners starting rotation, making a potent 1-2 punch with ace Felix Hernandez. While Washburn has been impressive this season, his age (35 in August) will make unlikely that he is dealt to Philadelphia for a couple of young prospects (Happ, Drabek, Carrasco ect.). But hey, crazier things have happened.

Pittsburgh Pirates SP Zach Duke: We all know how Pittsburgh loves trading away talent. The Pirates have dealt basically their entire core, including players Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Najer Morgan, and Adam LaRoche in deals during the past year, so I would not be surprised if they trade 2B Freddy Sanchez or Duke by July 31st. The Phillies would be a good destination for Duke, considering that it was Phillies manager Charlie Manuel who selected Duke to his first all-star game this season. Duke is still young (26 years of age), and it obviously wouldn’t take as much to acquire him as it would for Halladay or Lee. With that said, I wouldn’t give up Happ for him, and if the Phillies did acquire him for a couple mid-high level prospects, I doubt the Phillies would be able to make room for him in the starting rotation.

Arizona Diamondbacks RP Chad Qualls: The Phillies bullpen has taken a mighty hit over the past couple days, as three relief pitchers have been sent to the disabled list. However, even before that, the Phillies reportedly had interest for Qualls. Most of the trade rumors have said the Phillies are mostly in the market for starting pitching, but with recent injury concerns of J.C Romero, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin, the hard-throwing righty Qualls will certainly garner some attention from the Phillies branch.

Washington Nationals OF Josh Willingham: In the off-season, when the Phillies were in the running to sign then free-agent OF Gary Sheffield, a big fuss was made about how the Phillies need a solid right-handed bat off the bench. Well, three months into the season, the Phillies still have that problem. Eric Bruntlett may be one of the worst hitters in baseball when it comes to position players (.128 BA) and John Mayberry Jr. has looked quite overmatched at times in the past month in his first stint against big league pitching. Willingham is having a pretty solid offensive season (.291 BA, 14 HR), even though hasn’t been a full-time starter all year, but has expressed his desire to play for a contender, something the Nationals obviously aren’t. Earlier this week, some reports were saying that the Nationals were interested in sending Willingham to Philadelphia for the much maligned Kyle Kendrick, but as of right now, it seems that the Phillies will need to give up a little more than that for a guy who his on pace for 25 HR’s.

 

Of course, other names could come up within the next 72 hours or so, but these are the players who have been targeted by the Phillies.

More to come over the next couple days as the trade deadline comes closer.

PHILLIES: Blue Jays Reject Phillies Offer for Halladay

Just one day after the Phillies decided against a trade that would send J.A Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown to Toronto for Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays reacted in similar fashion, denying a formal offer proposed by the Phillies.

Instead of dealing both Happ and Drabek, the Phillies took Drabek, and Brown for that matter, off the table, and counter-offered with J.A Happ, Michael Taylor, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald. The Blue Jays followed the Phillies tune from Friday, and immediately rejected the trade, as Blue Jays J.P Richardi reacted by bluntly saying “that’s not going to work.”

Obviously, the two teams are still far apart on working out a potential deal that would send Halladay to Philadelphia. While the Phillies are still in discussions with the Blue Jays, and are still likely the favorites to land Halladay because of the pieces they have in the form of prospects, the Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, and Dodgers have all entered the mix. 

Even though the MLB trade deadline is July 31st, the Blue Jays organization has issued a self-imposed trade deadline for Halladay on July 28th.

Should we start the countdown?

Two Days.

PHILLIES: Halladay Discussions “Heating Up”

So, I was at Hershey Park yesterday, enjoying a four-hour flashback to my childhood, where a buddy of mine who I was with received a phone call saying that it was “inevitable” that the Phillies were going to acquire Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. 

 

Destined for Philly?

Coming home hours later and immediately jumping into the internet, it was easy to see how the rush to that conclusion was made. The headline on ESPN.com was the exact title of this post, and for good reason. The Blue Jays made a formal offer to the Phillies, a trade that would send Halladay to the Phils for J.A Happ, top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, and the top overall prospect in the organization, outfielder Dominic Brown.

The consensus is that the Phillies denied that first offer, which likely seems to be the case because a deal is not done yet.  That doesn’t mean that they aren’t discussing a very similar counter-offer, but the overall opinion around baseball circles is that when Toronto made that offer, the Phillies branch thought they would be giving up too much, and declined.

So since the Phillies “denied” the initial offer, does that mean that this trade for Roy Halladay won’t happen?

 

Well, that depends who you ask.

Jon Heyman, a writer from Sports Illustrated who has been following this situation from the time the rumors started spreading about three months ago, believes it will.  Heyman believes that the Phillies will only include one of  J.A Happ or Kyle Drabek instead of both (something that has been rumored for some time now), but that Blue Jays GM J.P Richardi will ultimately pull the trigger on a deal because he realizes that the Phillies give the Blue Jays the best shot to get ultimate value in return for Halladay. That’s why he says that a trade that was once viewed as “50/50″ now has a good shot of getting pulled off.

However, Jayson Stark of ESPN, who reported that the Blue Jays want to much in return for Halladay, believes that the Phillies and Blue Jays are much further away from a deal than some think. Stark reported Saturday that while the Phillies and Blue Jays have narrowed it down to seven or eight names of guys who may be included in a potential deal that Halladay, J.P Richardi,  and the Phillies believe that no deal will be done come the July 28th self-imposed trade deadline made by the Blue Jays.

Personally, I am one who thinks like Heyman, and I believe that there is too much involved in this deal to pull the trigger. The Blue Jays want Happ and Drabek, they’ve said that from the start. The Phillies do not want to give up both Happ and Drabek, they’ve also said that from the start.

Something has got to give, right?

Stay tuned..

PHILLIES: Analyzing a Trade For Roy Halladay

Since Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay was put on the trade market about two weeks ago, the Philadelphia Phillies have been considered a top trading partner with the Blue Jays to acquire him. Halladay, who was the starting pitcher for the AL in the All-Star game this week, has been a top-3 pitcher in baseball this year, and the Phillies would most likely have to blow away the Blue Jays with an offer to get him. 

However, a lot has happened in the past two weeks, and the prospects included in the potential trade have been narrowed down somewhat. After the Pedro Martinez signing, I said that J.A Happ will have to be included in a trade for Halladay because, quite frankly, the Phillies will need to make room in the rotation for Halladay, and Happ has the most trade value of members in the rotation that are expendable. 

I still agree with that.

If the Phillies trade for Halladay, J.A Happ is gone, mark my words.

 

There is no room for Jason Donald in the Phillies lineup

When this whole Halladay to the Phillies possible trade came out, it was reported that Jason Donald was going to be involved in the trade because the Blue Jays have a need at the middle infield positions. Well, for one, they sure don’t have to fill a need at 2B, as Aaron Hill was the starter for the AL in the All-Star game last week. However, it is at shortstop where lies the need for Donald in a Blue Jays uniform. Marco Scutaro, a career utility player and journeyman, is currently starting at SS for Toronto, and even though he is playing well this season, enough said. Scutaro is, at best, a first guy off the bench on a playoff-bound team, and Jason Donald, a natural SS, would be a huge upgrade for them with his defense and speed at the top of the lineup. Donald is currently sidelined while recovering from surgery to his left knee (torn meniscus), but is scheduled to come back within the next week, just in time for a trade to be completed before the deadline.

 

If the Phillies trade for Halladay, Donald is as good as gone.

Now here is where it gets a little dicey. If the Blue Jays are willing to part ways with Halladay for prospects, then they are obviously building for the future and trying to get rid of players that they invested a lot of money in during the past. With that said, if Halladay goes, than either RF Alex Rios or CF Vernon Wells will most likely also be gone within the next season. If the Blue Jays are indeed trying to do that, than they will most likely ask the Phillies for an outfield prospect who is both talented and ready to step into a big league lineup. Is it any coincidence that one of the Phillies top OF prospects, Michael Taylor, was promoted from Double-A Reading to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the past week.  

I think not.

 

Michael Taylor has the making of a perennial all-star

The Phillies want to see how Michael Taylor does against better competition to gauge whether Taylor should be included in this trade. Honestly, I think trading Taylor is a huge mistake, in fear that has the makeup (6’6 260) and the ability (5-tool player) to be a perennial all-star in the the big leagues. However, there is currently no room for Taylor in the Phillies lineup, and there probably won’t be for another two years until the contract of Raul Ibanez is finished. Holding Michael Taylor back and making him a minor league all-star or big league bench warmer for the next two seasons doesn’t really make sense for the organization, and since they have OF Dominic Brown, who is actually a higher rated prospect than Taylor, waiting in the wings at Single-A Lakewood, it’s a strong possibility the Phillies might have to part with a potential star.

 

If the Phillies trade for Halladay, there is a good chance Michael Taylor will be Toronto bound.

Now, if this is all the Blue Jays would want for Halladay, my reluctance to give away Taylor would overruled by Halladay’s ace-like presence, and I would do the deal in a heartbeat. For the Phillies, acquiring Roy Halladay would make them the odds-on favorite to not only make it to the World Series this year, but also next year, as he is signed through 2010. You can’t complain with that. Halliday in a Phillies uniform, especially if he gets signed to a long-term deal, gives the city of Philadelphia the best chance to see a sports dynasty that has never been present since the four area teams started playing their home games in South Philly.

 

Another parade down Broad Street would make a trade for Halliday worth every cent

However, the asking price for Halladay may be more than that. The Blue Jays have been said to want the Phillies top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, in a deal to bring Halladay to Philadelphia. Pitching prospects with the pedigree and the talent that Kyle Drabek possesses is as rare as getting struck by lightening, and Happ and Drabek might be to much to give away for Ruben Amaro, especially if Phillies don’t have the absolute confidence that they can sign Halladay to a long-term deal after this season.

If the Blue Jays request Drabek from the Phillies in a trade, than Halladay stays north of the border.

That might not be the end of the world for the Blue Jays thought The Phillies have a plethora of highly-touted pitching prospects in their farm system. However, by making J.A Happ the centerpiece of a potential trade, the Blue Jays will already get a guy who has proven himself in the big leagues, so guys in the Phillies organization such as Kyle Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter who are more big-league ready will most likely stay in the Phillies organization because the Blue Jays will want somebody with more upside. 

That’s fine, the Phillies have plenty of guys in their farm system with upside, especially on the pitchers’ mound.

Even without Drabek, the Phillies have Carlos Carrasco, Yohan Flande, and Jason Knapp, all who are under the age of 23 and are raw, but all also top pitching prospects within the Phillies organization. These players define “upside”.

With all this, this whole situation is still very tough to predict, as a couple questions arise.

 

Are the Blue Jays content with getting  just  J.A Happ, Jason Donald, and Michael Taylor in return?

Do the Blue Jays prefer Michael Taylor over Dominic Brown?

Is unloading Kyle Drabek too much for the Phillies?

Will Blue Jays G.M J.P Richardi ask for three, four, or five players in return for Roy Halladay?

If the Blue Jays want more in return, instead of a pitcher with “upside”, could the Blue Jays ask for a position player such a John Mayberry Jr. or Lou Marson?

If the Blue Jays are unloading Vernon Wells or Alex Rios to other teams at the trade deadline, will they ask for Jayson Werth from the Phillies?

 

There is just one thing that easy to predict with absolute certainty. That is, we will know the answers to these questions by July 31st.

PHILLIES: Drabek Impresses at 2009 Futures Game

Philadelphia Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek has been in this blog a lot as of late. Widely known as one of the best prospects within the organization, Drabek’s name has been brought up for a variety of reasons. When Antonio Bastardo went down, fans wanted to see the 21-year old flame thrower up in the big leagues. When Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P Richardi decided to put pitcher Roy Halladay on the trading block, Drabek was mentioned as one of the centerpieces of the a potential proposed trade. With all the notoriety surrounding the 21-year old kid flamethrower, it was no surprise seeing Drabek in the Futures Game when it took place Sunday night in St. Louis as a part of the 2009 All-Star festivities. 

For baseball fans who have never heard of the Futures Game, you’re missing out. It’s no ordinary all-star game. It’s the best prospects from all around minor-league baseball meet to play in a game on the eve of  the MLB All-Star festivities, truly the most accurate look into what baseball will be like 20 years into the “future”. If you don’t believe that, here are some of the recent MVP’s of the game. Alfonso Soriano, Jose Reyes, Grady Sizemore, Aaron Hill, all guys who have been in the MLB All-Star Game in the past two years and were featured in the Futures Game. It’s a pretty big deal if you haven’t noticed after reading this last paragraph.

So for Drabek, the Phillies 1st round draft pick in 2006, to be able to go to St. Louis and play in this game with the best prospects in baseball, is a huge step forward in his career. This is a kid who was destined for greatness when he came out of the womb. That’s what happens when you have a Cy Young Award winning pitcher, Doug Drabek, as your father. 

Needless to say, that’s a lot to live up to, and Drabek must have felt pressure doing so. A bad temper, a few minor bouts with the law, and general immaturity issues led to Drabek falling to the Phillies in the middle of the first round. It’s was too tough to pass up, the pedigree, the genes, the 97 mph fastball and knee-buckling curveball, all of it. The Phillies selected him 18th overall in the 2006 draft.

Three years later, after shedding the spoiled rich kid mentality, Tommy John Surgery,  and a humbling 2008 season in the minors, Drabek finally looks like the kid who was regarding as the top high school prospect in the country in 2006. After being promoted from Single-A Williamsport to Double-A Reading in June, Drabek’s domination (9-1 overall record, 110 K’s) earned him a bid to the Futures Game. Finally, he was going to be able to showcase ability on a national level, as fellow Phillies prospects Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald have been able to do in years past.

 

Drabek's demeanor is starting to match his talent

As he has done all year, Drabek continued to impress. On Sunday though, it all came together. As the second pitcher for the U.S team, he pitched a 1-2-3 second inning. Baseball fans from around the world were now able to see that his once-cocky attitude has now turned into a quiet confidence, a symbol of the maturation process he has gone through over the past three years. 

Talent has never been an issue for Kyle Drabek. However, now that he has learned to become a good professional athlete and a better man, his “future” is brighter than ever. The only question now is whether that “future” will be with the Phillies or some other team.

Read more about Kyle Drabek’s standout performance at the 2009 Futures Game here.