Extreme Makeover: Sixers Edition

Apologies for the long break from posting. Being as the Sixers’ season has been anything but  interesting thus far this season and the college basketball season upon us, I have been taking the time to write previews for each of the Big 5 teams and Drexel. Despite how our pro team has performed, we Philadelphians are extremely lucky to live in one of the best hoops hotbeds in the country. If you’ve never been to a Big 5 game at the Palestra, you must make it your top sports priority this winter. Once you experience the excitement of a game there, you will immediately be hooked, and you will quickly learn that there is great basketball being played in our backyard, despite what the NBA standings say. I’ll dive a little deeper into this over the course of the next week, but I can’t emphasize my point enough. If you are a basketball fan, you need to take a look at what is but a short train ride away. Over the next week, I will be posting previews as follows:

Wednesday: Penn/Drexel
Thursday: St. Joe’s
Friday: La Salle
Saturday: Temple
Sunday: Villanova

On to the Sixers:

A season that began with many eyes turned toward what all were hoping was a bright future has quickly dissolved into a lottery watch as the Sixers continue to flounder like a fish out of water. Any glimpse of hope, glimmer of talent, flash of brilliance has been quickly extinguished by a deluge of ineptitude, time and time again.

We are only halfway through November and even myself, ever the optimist when it comes to my teams, has to admit that this team is destined for the lottery. There are simply too many holes in the roster as it stands today for the Sixers to expect to contend for a playoff spot and, in all honesty, making the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed will be more detrimental to the franchise’s long term development than a 20-win season would be.

The team must continue an overhaul that began this offseason if they desire to become relevant again even in the next 5 years. The situation is that dire. Below, I have listed the entire Sixers’ roster and my opinion on whether or not each player should stay or go and why….

Tony Battie - Battie’s value to the Sixers is best described as “trade bait”. Signed as a clubhouse guy whose main job is to keep the young players focused, his services are not needed on a team that is at best the 28th best team in the league. Battie would be a nice throw in on a deal that could serve to turnover the roster, and that’s about all.

Craig Brackins - The youngster hasn’t seen the court at all this season. He was acquired in the same trade that sent Willie Green and Jason Smith to the Hornets. Brackins is exactly the kind of player the Sixers need to hang on to right now but, knowing this front office, he’ll be one of the first to leave. Hoepfully history isn’t the best indicator as to what the Sixers will do here. Brackins is young (23 and a rookie), talented (avg’d almost 17 pts and 9 boards at Iowa State last year), and big (6’10″ 230 lbs.), and, best of all, inexpensive ($1.3 mil this season). Doug Collins is starting to show frightening similarities to Larry Brown in that he is refusing to develop young talent, a terrible formula for a team in as deep a rebuilding mode as the Sixers. Brackins is a perfect example of a young guy who needs to start seeing the court, if only so that the Sixers may begin to more accurately evaluate the talent they have. Worst case scenario: he works his way back to the bench, where he has been resting comfortably all season. Best case scenario: the Sixers end up realizing they have a scrappy young guy with size who will definitely command solid trade value to a contender late in the season, if not establishing himself as a solid rotation guy for the future (this concept will be a recurring theme going forward).

Elton Brand – I’m probably going to surprise you here considering my rhetoric regarding Brand as recent as a month ago, but I think the Sixers need to keep him at this point in time. Considering the contract the Sixers signed with Brand, combined with Brand’s well documented injury history, there is no chance the Sixers will get a solid return on their investment in a trade scenario for Brand. Looking elsewhere on the roster, the Sixers are severely hurting at the PF and C positions. In fact, they are hemorrhaging from those positions. The Sixers have been killed in the paint this year and it is the most obvious hole on the team. The most realistic way for the Sixers to improve in the frontcourt will be through the draft, and someone like Brand (who, by the way, is playing very solidly, averaging 16 and 8) is the perfect mentor for a young, talented PF or C. Brand has always been a fundamentally sound player and fundamentals seem to be where the Sixers young frontcourt talent has been falling short. Assigning Brand as a mentor to the young guys currently on the roster and whomever the Sixers get in the draft (it HAS to be a big man) will only help to hasten this teams’ climb back to relevance. Why this hasn’t worked up to this point? More on that later.

Spencer Hawes - Keep him. Unless he is the make-or-break piece in a deal involving Iggy, Hawes is another young big man the Sixers have on the cheap at just $2.9 mil. A first-round guy who is only 22, his best basketball is ahead of him. A 7’1″ Center isn’t readily available on the playgrounds of Philadelphia, so an effort needs to be made to develop the skills of one when you have him. In just 16 minutes a game, Hawes has averaged 6 points and 3 boards. Those numbers are nowhere near gaudy but, when your most obvious talent is in the backcourt as it is with the Sixers, you don’t need 1990s Shaq numbers out of your center. You need a guy who can control the paint and clog the lanes. Hawes, with a body that is still developing, could conceivably fill this role. At just $2.9 mil, give him a chance to develop or, more to the point, take advantage of the asset when you have it and follow up on your investment – give him the tools to develop. Hawes is a keeper for at least the rest of the season.

Jrue Holiday – An obvious keeper. Holiday, 20, has the raw skills to be an All-Star at 24. Keep him on the court and let him learn the position slowly. Holiday is one of the few keystones on this roster that you can actually build around.

Andre Iguodala - A strained Achilles sidelined Iggy for a few games last week and the Sixers offense suffered no obvious loss of talent. Rumor had it that the Hornets inquired about his availability in that time and, for some reason, he is still on the Sixers. Why the front office is so enamoured with Iggy simply boggles my mind. I don’t mean to pick on the guy… having met him, he is a true professional and a seemingly good person, however, he is not going to lead this team out of the woods. He is not the right guy. I truly believe that once he is traded, he will flourish on a roster where he is not expected to carry the scoring load and is free to be more of a Swiss Army-knife type of player, but that is not going to happen in Philly. In my opinion, this is the Sixers’ biggest obstacle to success, the result of a combination of things, not the least of which is Iggy’s ridiculously excessive contract. Plain and simple, and discussed ad-nauseum in this space, he is not the right guy to rebuild this team around. The sooner he is gone, no matter how badly the Sixers get ripped off on the deal, the sooner the Sixers can build themselves into a contender.

Jason Kapono - Ed Stefanski was an improvement over Billy King in what way? Terrible contract for a terrible defender, and the shooting touch that won him several 3-point shootouts earlier in the decade has been elusive in Philly. He’s got to go.

Jodie Meeks – Jodie is an interesting talent. He proved at Kentucky that he can light it up at the drop of a dime but hasn’t gotten a chance to prove himself in the pros. This is something I have never really understood about the NBA. Weird, dated prejudices against players (i.e. lack of size) prevent them from ever even getting the opportunity to get in the flow of an NBA game. Meeks is a guy who I think can be a spark plug off the bench in the right situation, he just needs to see the court. This is another example of a guy who I think the Sixers need to just play to see what they have. It is completely pointless to park a young player on the bench. He isn’t going to bring anything to the table in the clubhouse, and being as he’s never as much as seen the floor, he carries little to no trade value. Play him, see what he can do. You’re already one of the worst teams in the league, so it can’t get any worse.

Andres Nocioni - Nocioni is a journeyman, but I don’t understand why. I love his lunchpail approach to the game, and he plays smart basketball. Nocioni is another keeper, with the “Iguodala Caveat”, where if he is the make-or-break player in a deal to move Iggy, you’ve got to let him go. Love Nocioni’s game though.

Darius Songaila - He is pointless on this roster. He is old and something tells me he’s not leading that clubhouse anywhere. Songaila could be a solid role player on a good team, a solid contributor as the 9th or 10th man, but he’s not doing this team any good.

Marreese Speights - Here is where I admit to inflating the value of a player who is going nowhere. I really thought at the beginning of the season that Speights could turn the corner this year and combine his talent with basketball IQ and work ethic to be a solid contributor, but I thought wrong. Speights seems uninterested when he plays, which isn’t often. Averaging 10 minutes a game, Speights contributes about 4 points and 3 boards a night on just 41% shooting, terrible for a big man. The knock on Speights coming out of Florida, and the reason he fell to the Sixers with the 16th pick, was that he was lazy and somewhat uncoachable. After the draft, he said all the right things to refute those claims, and I really wanted to believe him, even somewhat staking my preseason prediction on his development this year, but he can’t continue to hide his true identity as an all-talent, no drive paycheck casher. Not that there is anything wrong with that, you are who you are, but all too often Speights seems to be running a different play than the rest of the team on offense, completely spacing on help defense, and throwing up ill-advised shots to stuff his stat sheet. Maybe Speights will learn someday how to combine his sick athleticism with basketball brains to become a good player, but it’s not going to happen in Philly. Speights has worn out his welcome with me.

Evan Turner – Obviously, Turner is a keeper right now but Sixers fans have to have the word “bust” crawling around in their heads, especially after watching John Wall dismantle the Sixers a couple of weeks ago while Turner hardly made a dent in the stat sheet. With DeMarcus Cousins, chosen after Turner and playing a position that continues to be a major hole in the Sixers roster, tearing it up in Sacramento, you have to wonder whether Turner was the right pick. Throw in the fact that Lou Williams continues to evolve into a solid scorer at shooting guard, and one wonders why exactly the Sixers felt the next to bolster a backcourt that was already much more stable than their frontcourt. This is more a knock on the Sixers front office than Turner, and I really do hope he can develop into the player he was in college (he did win Player of the Year over Wall last year), but the whispers of “bust” are only going to get louder until Turner starts to produce.

Lou Williams – Well, we’ve gotten this far, we might as well keep him, right? I’ve always liked Sweet Lou so I may be a little biased here, but he has to be one of the more pleasant surprises of the season so far. Averaging about 15 points, 3 assists, and 2 rebounds in just 23 minutes a game, Williams has provided many a spark off the bench for the Sixers thus far this year. Being just 24, he will only continue to develop his game. Let’s keep him, if only for the fun of it.

Thaddeus Young – Young, unlike Speights, has not let me down in my preseason prediction. In just over 20 minutes of action a night, he has averaged 10 points and 4 boards. I really like what Young could be, with an emphasis on the word “could”. He is another player the Sixers need to focus on developing more than demanding production out of. Young is just 22, only spent a year in college, and is probably just beginning to grasp some of the more intricate details of the game as his talent alone was enough to get him to the pros. I think Young is still a keeper, despite his somewhat mediocre numbers, but the Sixers need to give him the tools to develop.

All in all, the Sixers need to focus more on developing talent than winning games. It’s time to give the keys of this bus to young guys who haven’t seen much action up to this point. Let them develop, let them build some trade value for themselves. If one of the cheap, young players on the roster can prove themselves to be a solid prospect for the future, it may help soften the blow the Sixers will need to take in any trade for Iguodala, a player whose contract outperforms his talent. As I alluded to earlier, Collins has shown flashes of Larry Brown this year (remember his handling of Larry Hughes?? Still one of the bigger travesties in recent Sixers history) which simply won’t work if you are looking to rebuild. The front office needs to pressure Collins into developing this team. As it stands, Collins is playing the players who give him the best chance to win, presumably the players who best understand how to defend in the NBA, how to run an offense in the NBA. Unfortunately, the players on this roster who give you the best chance to win are not the same players who would play if you were playing the most talented players.

With the Sixers seemingly headed towards the lottery regardless of who plays, Collins needs to see what else he has. In the meantime, with college basketball upon us, I will be keeping an eye out for potential lottery picks who could help this team and report on them here. Look for these lottery updates to start within the next month as teams get into the bulk of their non-conference schedules and it becomes easier to evaluate their talent (something tells me that Syracuse vs Kutztown isn’t going to tell me much about Fab Melo’s ability (ALERT!!! Keep an eye on him, could be just the type of player the Sixers need)). In the meantime, look for the Penn/Drexel preview come Wednesday evening.

Finally, Mike Vick is God on the football field. Go Birds!

Happy Sixers Day!

The Doug Collins Era, Evan Turner Era, and Darius Songaila Era all get under way this evening when the Sixers take on the Miami Heat at the CoreStates/First Union/Wachovia/Wells Fargo Center.

Interestingly enough, the Evan Turner Era is off to an inauspicious start as Sixers coach Doug Collins announced that Turner will start his rookie year coming off the bench along with fellow youngster Thaddeus Young in a move that surprised most. This has to be troubling to all Sixers fans, especially in light of recent rumors floating in NBA circles that Turner has “draft bust” written all over him. Collins cited Turner’s slow adjustment to the NBA style of play as being the reason behind the decision, however Turner’s summer and preseason play did nothing to convince Collins that he had to be on the court. Turner has great pedigree and was a great player in college, so to doubt his talent this early would be foolish, however it must be disheartening to any Sixers fan to see their next supposed franchise “savior” be unable to crack the starting lineup on a team seemingly destined for the lottery. The worst thing Sixers fans can do at this point, though, would be to panic and heap criticism on the rookie. If come April, Turner still can’t crack the lineup, then it may be time to start talking, but some rookies take longer than others to grasp what it takes to play in the NBA, and Collins is notoriously hard on young players.

The Sixers will take the court with Jrue Holliday, Jason Kapono, Elton Brand, Spencer Hawes, and Andre Igoudala to match up against Dwayne Wade, Carlos Arroyo, Joel Anthony, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh, last night’s starters for Miami.

Tonight’s game is one that the Sixers will likely have to look for moral victories over one in the win column. The Heat were frankly embarrassed by the Celtics last night, held to just 80 points, tallying only 9 in the first quarter. LeBron James had 31 points but also committed 8 turnovers in his first game as the self-proclaimed second coming of Magic Johnson. Fortunately for Heat fans, and unfortunately for Philadelphians looking for a sports team to hang their hat on in the wake of this weekend’s disasters on the football field and baseball diamond, the Sixers are next up for a team that many had expected to push 70 wins this year. Expect Miami to come out firing. Dwayne Wade (13 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast) and Chris Bosh (8 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast) were profoundly silent against the Celtics, and will certainly be looking to get up to pace offensively, so look for a much more balanced Miami attack with all three of Miami’s superstars scoring in double figures.

As has been mentioned throughout the offseason, 2010-11 will be all about building a foundation for the Sixers. They are definitely not contenders, but certainly have a young enough nucleus in place that fans will accept marked improvement in play over the course of the season as a measurement of success for this team. This is good news for the Sixers because all indicators point to Wednesday being a rough night for Doug Collins’ crew.

Prediction:

Miami comes out angry after their debacle Tuesday night in Boston, hits on all cylinders offensively, and puts the Sixers away early. Heat win 115-91.

Sixers 2010-2011 Checklist

The 76ers are set embark on yet another new coaching era (their 7th since Larry Brown left in 2003), this time under Doug Collins, a coach whose most notable achievement in coaching to this point was being Phil Jackson’s predecessor in Chicago. Collins has a project on his hands here in Philadelphia. The Sixers haven’t had a winning season since 2004-2005 and even then they lost in the first round of the playoffs. While this Sixers team boasts a boatload of youthful talent and seems to have at least some semblance of a plan for the future, there is still much work to be done in order to turn this team into a contender. Below, I have concocted a checklist of steps to success that I feel the Sixers must follow in order to return to relevance in Philadelphia.

1) Get rid of Andre Igoudala, even if it means taking 50 cents on the dollar. Igoudala’s reign in Philly as the “go-to guy” has been disappointing to say the least. I honestly do believe that Igoudala is a good player as proven by his time on Team USA this summer, however he is not A) capable of being “the man” on an NBA team or B) worth the nearly $12.5 million he is due this year. Igoudala is a world-class defender and possesses athleticism that most can only dream of, but he just doesn’t have “it”.  In his 7th season, any success as a leader that he may be destined for should have been evident by now. Given his skill set (great defender, a slasher on offense) Igoudala would make a great Artest to someone’s Kobe, but unfortunately for the Sixers, their “Kobe” to be, Evan Turner, plays the same position as Igoudala. You may ask why shedding Igoudala takes precedence over getting rid of Elton Brand. Do not get me wrong, shedding Brand and his monstrous contract would only help the Sixers, but the market for Igoudala is significantly more lucrative than the market for Brand. Also, Brand could be more useful to the team given the current roster, which is guard/small forward heavy.

2) Bring Evan Turner along slowly. No one expects the Sixers to win 50 games this year. Turner, who last year suffered from a stress fracture in his back, will no doubt hit the “rookie wall” late in the season. Given the wide-open nature of the Eastern Conference, where it is not inconceivable that a team with a 38-42 record can make the playoffs, the Sixers could find themselves in position to make some noise come May. With the abundance of youth on this team, and considering that team and coach will need time to develop a relationship, the Sixers should not expect to peak until late in the season. If they are able to sneak into the playoffs, a healthy Turner will no doubt be a difference maker.

3) The continued development of Jrue Holiday. Thankfully and mercifully, the Lou Williams at PG experiment was brought to an end when the Sixers drafted Holiday as their PG of the future. As a huge Sweet Lou fan, I still hope that he can find his niche here in Philly, but it will not be at PG. Holiday has the tools to be a great PG, speed, athleticism, uncanny passing ability, etc, but being a true PG in the NBA is a whole different beast. There are so many nuances to the position, it takes years to develop, especially considering Holiday left college early and lost those valuable years of development. One of Doug Collins’ bigger challenges in his first year as coach will be helping Holiday make the leap to being a true NBA PG. If the Sixers can establish him in his position, with so much youth and talent filling out every other position on the roster, this team can establish itself as a perennial playoff team with the emergence of a true PG to distribute the ball to the likes of fellow young guns Turner, Thaddeus Young, and Marreese Speights.

4) Establish someone as the starting center. Whether it be Elton Brand, Spencer Hawes, or Marreese Speights, Collins’ coaching style, which emphasizes ball control, quality possessions, and defense over the run and gun style of someone like Mike D’Antoni, requires a center in order to be successful. Brand would be an undersized center, but has proven in the past that he can be a successful rebounder despite his lack of size. Hawes is probably the only true center on the roster with a chance of seeing much playing time, but he is young and unproven. Speights, in my opinion, is better suited to the Power Forward position given his speed and athleticism and if Hawes or Brand can step up to fill the 5 spot, it would only benefit the Sixers to have some combination of Speights and Brand or Hawes on the floor as opposed to only one of the three at a time given the emphasis on ball control in Collins’ system.

5) Keep the floor spread. This is where players like Jason Kapono, Lou Williams, and Jodie Meeks are of benefit to the Sixers. If these three can find their stroke, it will open the floor for attackers like Turner, Holiday and Young. This, more than anything, will be key to the Sixers success in 2010-2011. With an offense predicated on success in the halfcourt, it is essential that defenses not be able to clog the lanes or lay off the perimeter. If the Sixers can keep the floor spread, it will be worth at least 5 or 6 wins this year, which could be the difference between the playoffs and the lottery.

Oct 27th and the arrival of Miami’s Big 3 is just a few weeks away, and the Sixers main rotation has been coming into focus in the last few preseason games. The Sixers have a long, uphill battle to becoming relevant, but following my checklist above will help the team to get there more quickly.

Sixers Summer of Change

Before I start, I’d like to take an opportunity to introduce myself. My name is Ian Stancato, I’m a huge basketball fan, and I owe a lot to these guys (the other Phour) for allowing me to jump on here. In this space, I’ll do my best to break down what I think the Sixers are doing right, what they are doing wrong, and how they can continue to improve week in and week out. I’ll discuss highlights, lowlights, and controversy. Being that Philly is an absolute dream for any fan of the sport, I will also touch on the local college scene from time to time and, when the next Tyreke Evans is growing up in town, I’ll touch on that, too. Let me know what you like, dislike, etc, I’m a huge fan of feedback, so get at me. On to some hoops…

While summer is usually anything but a hotbed of hoops discussion, most summers don’t boast the most intensely scrutinized free agent period of any sport, ever. Regardless of who your team is, it was impossible not to spend hours a day trying to sift through all the rumors surrounding D-Wade, Chris Bosh, and LeBron. Now that the dust has settled, we all know how the situation resolved itself and, as a result, we’ve all watched countless hours of pointless analysis of the “new” Heat. In that time, and largely ignored by the media even in Philadelphia, the Sixers were active in acquiring several new players as they continue to work towards building a perennial contender.

New to the team are Andres Nocioni, Spencer Hawes, and Tony Battie. Make no mistake about it, none of these guys are going to turn a 27-55 team into a contender, however their arrival does signal a larger sea change within the organization that should give die-hard fans at least a glimmer of hope. Gone is the Haitian Sensation, Samuel Dalembert, and with him goes one of the ugliest contracts in Sixers history. The organization has seemingly finally given up on trying to sell Sammy D to basketball-savvy Philadelphians as an elite big man. Granted, Sammy D put up some solid stats on paper, but those numbers never translated to wins for the Sixers with Sammy D in the middle.

The Sixers organization seems to finally have committed itself to rebuilding instead of spending another long year convincing itself that it had the pieces in place to simply “fill in the blanks” and contend. The team hired Doug Collins as coach, noted for having steered rebuilding jobs in the past. They went after the best available talent in this years’ draft (Evan Turner) as opposed to going after the player that would have been the best “band-aid” for their current roster (Favors or Cousins) and make another run at the 7 or 8 seed in the East.

The Sixers have one of the most solid young cores in the NBA today with Turner, Jrue Holliday, Thaddeous Young, and Marreese Speights. If the Sixers are committed to building a solid franchise with sustainable success, these four guys are their only “untouchables”. Everyone else should be available for trade and the Sixers shouldn’t be too picky about the right price, especially if a trade involves dumping Elton Brand and his ~$17 million a year deal, or Andre Igoudala and his ~$15 million deal. Igoudala is not simply not suited to being the #1 option on a good team and, unfortunately for the Sixers, they are paying him like he is. He is the epitome of the “upside potential” era, when players were drafted highly based on athleticism and not ability, an era when teams thought they could take tremendous athletes and turn them into even better basketball players, neglecting the fact that there is more to being a good basketball player than athleticism alone. Tayron Thomas is another good example of “upside potential” run rampant. The risk the team took in paying Brand so extravagantly has officially backfired. He is not likely to return to his pre-Achilles tear form.

Change is difficult to accept especially in sports but, generally, once it is fully embraced, success is not far around the corner. As the Sixers work to cut ties with past mistakes, future success gets closer, especially if they can continue to build on young talent with high basketball IQ, not simple athleticism.

SIXERS: Iverson Returns to Lead Sixers in Upset over Portland

The Sixers got a huge win the other night against a very good Portland Trail Blazer team in the Rose Garden.  With Allen Iverson back in the lineup for the first time in four games, the Sixers followed their veteran leader to a huge upset, winning by double digits on the road.  Iverson had his best game of the season since he returned to Philadelphia, scoring 19 points on 7 for 11 shooting.  This is a big change from the Iverson of old, who used to score more points but would take (and miss) and ton of shots.  Rarely did we ever see A.I. have a night in which he shot over 50% from the field.  Iverson’s return helped spur the Sixers to a victory, hopefully one they will be able to build off of when they visit Chester native Tyreke Evans and the Sacramento Kings tonight at Arco Arena. 

Playing againts former teammate Andre Miller for the first time since he left for free agency, the Sixers received an outstanding performance from Elton Brand off the bench.  Brand dropped 25 points to go along with his 9 rebounds.  I have been very critical of Brand’s play in the past, but I will give the man credit in that he has been playing very good basketball as of late, especially in the team’s last two wins against Boston and Portland.  The good thing for Brand is that he can come off the bench and play efficiently, while not having to carry the entire burden of playing close to 40 minutes and defending the paint all night.  With fellow big man Marresse Speights having an excellent season thus far as well, the two bigs can split time to give each other rest when they need it.  Thaddeus Young seems to be able to play power forward too, and he has been the starter at that position since Lou Williams returned.  With the lineup of Iverson, Williams, Iguodala, Young, and Dalembert (who continues to be a disappointment despite still showing signs of promise), the Sixers have a good mix of young talent and veteran leaders.  With guys like Brand, Speights, and Jrue Holiday coming off the bench, the Sixers have some depth at each position.  Hopefully they can put it all together and get a few wins.  The team hasn’t won two straight since early November.  Tonight against the Kings would be a good time to turn that around.  They will need a strong defensive effort to get it done, as the Kings average over 104 points per game and have found their new star player in Evans, who is a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year.

SIXERS: 2009-10 Season Preview

The Philadelphia 76ers are about ready to kick off the 2009-10 campaign Wednesday night in Orlando.  The Sixers, under new head coach Eddie Jordan, started the preseason 4-0 and finished with a 5-3 record.  Jordan has said that he is pleased so far with what he has seen, but we won’t truly know how good they are until the regular season begins.  The team has made their final roster decisions, so let’s go through each position to see who will be playing for the Sixers this season.

Point Guard

Starter: Lou Williams

This will be by far the the biggest question for the Sixers this season.  The loss of veteran point guard Andre Miller to free agency has caused a lot of questions among critics as to whether or not the Sixers will be able to fill that spot capable of producing the same numbers as Miller.  Rather than put all the burden on one player, the Sixers will most likely rotate in and out different players to play point guard in the beginning of the season.  If one player appears to stand out from the rest, look for that man to become the full time starter.  However, for now, Lou Williams will get the start and see the most playing time at point guard.  This will be Williams’ first season as a starter, and depending on his play, we’ll see if he remains there throughout the duration of the year.  Williams was very effective coming off the bench for the Sixers last season, averaging nearly 13 points per game.  He has also done well so far this preseason.  I am glad to see Lou get the opportunity to start after putting in several years coming off the bench.  I expect him to have no trouble scoring, forcing turnovers, or hitting clutch free throws with the game on the line.  What concerns me about Williams is his poor shooting percentage, especially from beyond the arc, as well as his ability to take care off the basketball.  He also will probably struggle early on in running the offense, including the fast-break which Andre Miller ran so well, until he gets comfortable playing over 30 minutes every night.  It will be a struggle for Lou early on, but hopefully he will be a quick learner and adapt to the change from being a reserve to an every day starter as soon as possible.

Reserve: Jrue Holiday

Backing up Williams, will be 1st round draft pick Jrue Holiday.  While the team has high hopes for Holiday down the road, this will probably be a building year for the Sixers top draft choice.  Holiday is still very raw, having only played one year at UCLA before leaving for the NBA.  He was regarded as the best high school player in the country in 2008, but struggled to live up to the hype last season at UCLA, having a very mediocre year for a very mediocre Bruin team.  The Sixers love his potential to dominate, but still realized he is a work in progress.  It may take a couple seasons before Holiday is able to play to his potential.  Until then, he will serve as a backup seeing limited time in the beginning of the season.  Depending on how well he plays, Holiday could see his minutes increase as the season progresses.

 

Shooting Guard

Starter: Andre Iguodala

No surprise here as Andre Iguodala begins his sixth season with the 76ers.  The Sixers will turn to Iguodala to provide the majority of their points every game.  Iguodala has usually been an 18-19 points per game player, a number the Sixers would like to see increase this season.  If Iguodala ever wants to be among the elite of the NBA guards, he will need to improve both his 3 point shooting and free throw percentage.  Iguodala averaged barely over 30% from beyond the arc last season.  This has to improve as the team cannot continue to get poor three point shooting from its backcourt.  In addition, he was inconsistent from the free-throw line all year, including the playoffs.  He shot 72% from the free throw line, about 3% fewer than his career average.  As the Sixers go-to player, Iguodala needs to be able to hit free throws to close out games.  Recall all the games last year that the Sixers lost on a buzzer beater.  Buzzer beaters usually occur because a team failed to close out the game at the free throw line.  Hopefully Iguodala will have improved since last season, which should result in him averaging over 20 points per game, something the Sixers have lacked from one player since the departure of Allen Iverson.  One thing we should not have to worry about are Iguodala’s defensive abilities.  He continues to improve each season, and should draw the opposing team’s top perimeter threat each game.

Reserve: Willie Green

Willie Green will be a solid backup for Iguodala.  He should see between 15-20 minutes per game unless he struggles, which could allow for Jason Kapono to get more playing time.  Green has struggled in the past when he was chosen to start games, but has usually excelled when coming off the bench.  Green can be inconsistent in terms of his scoring production, but can be counted on to take care of the basketball when he is in the game.  He is, however, a major defensive liability, so it is critical that Iguodala stays out of foul trouble so that Green will not have to play for a large portion of the game.

Reserve: Royal Ivey

Ivey should see limited time off the bench for the second straight season.  He can provide a little offense but is of little value beyond 10 or more minutes of playing time.

 

Small Forward

Starter: Thaddeus Young

Thaddeus Young is the player I expect to improve the most from last season.  He is entering his third season in the NBA, and has gotten better each year thus far.  Now it is time for him to the next great leap forward.  He shoots a great overall field goal percentage (49.5 % last season), but I would like to see him get more involved with the offense.  Despite averaging over 15 points per game, the former Georgia Tech star would often take fewer than ten shots per game.  Getting him more involved in essential for the Sixers, as he is also the best 3 point shooter (34%) of their five starters.  The best thing that Thad has going for him is that he is only 21 years old.  He hasn’t even come near to reaching his prime.  This gives all of us great optimism that he will continue to progress and become a great NBA player.

Reserve: Jason Kapono

Kapono will see a lot of time off the bench this season, mainly in place of Young.  The Sixers’ newest acquisition should help the team improve from its league-worst ranking in 3 point shooting.  Kapono is a pure 3 point shooter, and he won’t hesitate to take plenty of shots from beyond the arc.  This can really add a new dimension to an offense which is mainly known for its fast-break abilities.

Reserve: Rodney Carney

Carney returns to the Sixers looking to get his NBA career back on track.  He is good for eating up some minutes while grabbing some rebounds and providing offense from down low and beyond the arc.  He is currently nursing a strained hamstring, which will limit his minutes for the first few weeks of the season.  But Coach Jordan has liked what he’s seen from Carney and says he will see significant playing time this season.

 

Power Forward:

Starter: Elton Brand

Elton Brand is healthy (for now) and ready to make an impact on this Sixers team.  He was signed last season to give the Sixers a dominant low presence that they have lacked for many years now.  Instead all he gave them was inconsistent play and a spot on the injured reserve list for most of the season.  Now that he is back, Brand needs to step up his game and give the Sixers a consistent presence in the post that both provide easy points, as well as making it difficult for the opposition to dominate the Sixers down low they way they have recently (Dwight Howard in last year’s playoffs).  For the 29 games that Brand did play last season, all his numbers were significantly less than his career averages.  He needs to be scoring between 16-22 points each game, along with around 10 rebounds each night.  The only way the Sixers will have a chance to contend in the Eastern Conference is if Brand has a great year.  The Sixers need to have that low post presence that can go to for easy buckets and to limit all the big forwards (i.e. Howard, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O’Neal) they will face in the East.

Reserve: Marresse Speights

Last season’s first round pick Marresse Speights should take big strides this season.  His offensive skills alone will get him more minutes this season.  If Brand or Dalembert struggle, Speights may see himself play over 20 minutes a game.  He has tons of potential and on a team that is desperately looking for a consistent scoring big man, Speights is going to play a big role on this year’s team.

Reserve: Jason Smith

Smith has a very solid rookie season before missing all of last year with a season ending ACL injury in the preseason.  The 7-0″ Smith will see limited time off the bench, mainly to eat up minutes for Brand and Dalembert when they’re in foul trouble.

 

Center: Samuel Dalembert

Dalembert is back as the starting center once again for the Sixers and the same question remains as always: Can he stay out of foul trouble so that he can actually make an impact on the game?  Well if history is any indication, then the answer will continue to be no.  Dalembert’s biggest strength is his ability to control the paint defensively.  However, he has not been able to do it without constantly fouling the opposition.  This leads to a massive reduction in his minutes and never allows for him to get into the game.  When Dalembert is able to stay out of foul trouble, he usually plays very well.  He can score down low as well as rebound on both ends of the court.  If Dalembert can finally stay out of foul trouble, he can help the Sixers solidify their front court play which well greatly improve their chances to win against the top teams in the league.

Reserve: Primoz Brezec

The Sixers signed the seven foot Brezec to give them a defensive presence off the bench when Dalembert goes out for foul trouble.  He will be expected to fill the role that Reggie Evans played last season.  Expect him to come off the bench and provide rebounds and some scoring.

5 Keys to the Season

1.  Elton Brand–>Brand must play well for the Sixers to have a chance to contend this year.  It’s as simple as that.  Enough said.

2.  Consistent point guard play–>The team took a big hit when they did not resign Andre Miller, who was the quarterback of the fastbreak that was so big in the Sixers offense for the past two seasons.  They will need Lou Williams to come through for them, otherwise it will be tough for this offense to get on track.

3.  3 point shooting–>The Sixers have ranked last in the league for the past two seasons in 3 point shooting.  The addition of Jason Kapono should help that ranking improve, but it is still not enough.  Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, and Lou Williams need to be able to hit 3 pointers for this team.  Iguodala especially must improve, so that defenses will be forced to play the Sixers on the arc, rather than around the paint in anticipation of a drive to the basket.

4.  Smart Defense–>The team needs to play defense without fouling.  The Orlando Magic were always shooting free throws during last year’s playoff series.  Samuel Dalembert especially must stay out of foul trouble so that he will be able to assert himself as a major defensive presence in the paint.

5.  Strong Start–>The Sixers play a relatively easy schedule in the first month of the season.  If they’re able to start strong while working out any problems at the same time, they will give themselves a great chance to contend for a top-4 spot in the conference.  If they start slow, they will still probably make the playoffs but will find it very difficult to get one of those top spots which would allow them to avoid playing Cleveland, Orlando, or Boston in the first round.

Regular Season Prediction: 45-37 to finish 2nd in the Atlantic Division behind Boston and 5th in the Eastern Conference behind Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, and Atlanta.

 

SIXERS: Andre Miller to Portland

It looks like Andre Miller will be getting his desired three year deal after all.  Unfortunately, it will not be with the Philadelphia 76ers.  Instead Miller is shipping west to join Brandon Roy and the Portland Trail Blazers.  Earlier today Miller signed a three year deal worth about $21 million.  The Sixers had been trying to resign Miller for a one year deal, but not surprisingly the free agent point guard agreed to leave Philadelphia for a lengthier contract.  Miller should be a good fit for the Trail Blazers, who struggled in the playoffs last year mainly due to poor play from the point guard position.  This will also allow their young star Brandon Roy to play his natural position of shooting guard for the entire game. 

So now that the Sixers can finally prepare for basketball without Miller, they can turn their focus on to their current players at the position.  Both Lou Williams and rookie Jrue Holiday will see significant time at point guard next year, and Willie Green and Andre Iguodala could also get some time at the position next season.  The Sixers will also look to add a free agent point guard for next season.  An article in today’s Philadelphia Inquirer mentioned former Indiana Pacers guard Jamaal Tinsley as a possible target for the Sixers.

SIXERS: Player Profile of First Round Pick Jrue Holiday

With their first round pick of the 2009 NBA Draft, the Sixers have selected UCLA guard Jrue Holiday.  Holiday played one year at UCLA after being named the 2008 Gatorade National Player of the Year for his senior season at high school.  Holiday brings a ton of athleticism and raw potential to the Sixers, and will now be expected to play a large role in this upcoming season as Andre Miller is not expected to return to the team.  Let’s take a closer look at Jrue Holiday’s high school and college career so that we know what we can expect from the former UCLA point guard for this upcoming season

High School Career at Campbell Hall High School in North Hollywood, CA (2005-2008)

Holiday was a four year varsity starter at Campbell Hall High School in North Hollywood, CA where he was the starting shooting guard.  He immediately made an impact on his team as a freshman, leading them to a 32-0 overall record and a California State Championship.  His success continued for the next three years, earning such accolades as 2007 Gatorade California Player of the Year in his junior season, and 2008 Gatorade National Player of the Year for his senior season.  He culminated his high school career with another state title his senior year, a season in which he averaged 25.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 6.9 apg, and 4.8 spg, stats which earned him a spot on 2008 McDonalds All American team.  Regarded as the number one point guard prospect in the country, Holiday decided to stay close to home and play his college ball at UCLA.

College Career: UCLA Bruins (2008-09)

Holiday did not live up to expectations in his one and only year at UCLA.  He struggled to find his spot in the Bruins offense and would often disappear during games.  His season high in points was only 20, and it came against lowly Florida International.  He averaged only 8.5 ppg along with 3.8 rpg and 3.7 apg for the season.  In the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Holiday helped UCLA squeak by Virginia Commonwealth with 13 points and 6 assists.  However, in the next round against Villanova, Holiday was virtually non-existent, scoring just 4 points in 27 minutes played.  After completing his freshman season at UCLA, Holiday declared for the NBA Draft, where he was regarded as one of the top three point guard prospects by most scouts.  Holiday was selected by the Philadelphia 76ers with the number 17th pick in the draft, and has recently signed with the team. 

With the Sixers not expecting to re-sign Andre Miller, Jrue Holiday will likely play a large role in this upcoming season.  His ability to adjust to the NBA level of play could have a very large impact on how the Sixers play this season.  While Holiday is not expected to start right away, if he is able to mature quickly and gives the Sixers the most production of their available point guards, he could find himself in the starting lineup by the end of the season.

SIXERS: Bibby Not Interested in Joining Sixers

The Philadelphia 76ers have expressed an interest in signing Atlanta Hawks point guard Mike Bibby.  Unfortunately for the Sixers, Bibby does not feel the same way.  Bibby, a 10-year veteran who has spent the last two seasons playing for the Hawks, plans to return to the team for

Mike Bibby does not plan on coming to Philadelphia

another season.  Even though it appears that Bibby will not be joining the team, the fact that the Sixers have contacted him shows that things may not be going well in their efforts to re-sign free agent point guard Andre Miller.  Miller and Bibby play a similar style game, as both players are excellent ball distributors as well as solid scorers.  The team is clearly exploring all their options in case they are unable to bring Miller back.  As of now the starting point guard will be Lou Williams, backed up by rookie Jrue Holiday.  While both these players possess great talent and athleticism, they lack the consistent play and leadership skills of Miller.  If the Sixers don’t bring back Miller, it may take awhile for the team to develop consistent play from the point guard position.  And when  the point guard struggles, the offense usually does as well.

SIXERS:Where the team stands as of now (Looking at the Guards)

The NBA draft has come and gone and the Sixers have acquired another athletic, yet unpolished talent in UCLA guard Jrue Holiday.  Holiday averaged 8.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 3.7 APG in his only year for the Bruins, disappointing numbers for the 2008 Gatorade National Player of the Year in high school.  Despite his disappointing season, Holiday has plenty of potential to become a successful point guard in the NBA.  He will have to improve his shooting, especially from 3 point rage where he shot a little under 31% last year.  Hopefully Holiday will be the backup point guard for the Sixers next season, assuming they are able to re-sign PG Andre Miller, who will become a free agent.  The Sixers should still make it a priority to bring Miller back.  He was the Sixers best player in the playoffs against the Magic last year (21.2 PPG, 6.30 RPG, and 5.3 APG) and was really the only guy who showed up to play every game in the postseason, as other Sixer stars like Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young were inconsistent and sometimes non-existent.  Miller’s great ability to run the fast break offense that the Sixers thrive on along with being an experienced veteran who can help Holiday with learning the NBA game are reasons why he needs to be brought back.  G Lou Williams will also see some time at PG next year, and could potentially be the starter if the team fails to re-sign Miller. 

The only true 2-guard the team currently has is Willie Green.  Green was the starting shooting guard for the Sixers down the stretch last year and in every game in the playoffs.  The problem with that is that Green should be the 7th or 8th guy off the bench, not the starter.  He only gives you limited scoring (8.5 PPG last year) and his defense is inconsistent.  If the team wants Thaddeus Young to become the full time starter at the small forward position next year, then Andre Iguodala will once again start the season at Shooting guard.  Iguodala seems to be much more comfortable at the 3 rather than at the 2, where he struggled to produce at the beginning of last season.  The Sixers are probably better off with Iguodala and Young both starting, although neither are reliable from beyond the arc, which has hurt the team in the past.  The team has acquired G/F Jason Kapono, who is expected to come off the bench to provide some much needed offense from 3 point range.  Guards Royal Ivey and Kareem Rush will back up either Iguodala or Green, whomever gets the nod at shooting guard.  I have a feeling that Iguodala will be the starting SG again.

Tomorrow’s post will include a look at the forwards and center positions, including the return on Elton Brand, and what we can expect from the talented, but often injured forward.

Also in other news, Houston Rockets C Yao Ming may miss the entire season after suffering a setback in his recovery from a broken bone in his foot.  Doctors have also said that this injury could be career threatening.  This is a big blow to the Rockets, who were on the verge of becoming serious threats to contend for the Western Conference Title.