PHILLIES: Halladay Discussions “Heating Up”

So, I was at Hershey Park yesterday, enjoying a four-hour flashback to my childhood, where a buddy of mine who I was with received a phone call saying that it was “inevitable” that the Phillies were going to acquire Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. 

 

Destined for Philly?

Coming home hours later and immediately jumping into the internet, it was easy to see how the rush to that conclusion was made. The headline on ESPN.com was the exact title of this post, and for good reason. The Blue Jays made a formal offer to the Phillies, a trade that would send Halladay to the Phils for J.A Happ, top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, and the top overall prospect in the organization, outfielder Dominic Brown.

The consensus is that the Phillies denied that first offer, which likely seems to be the case because a deal is not done yet.  That doesn’t mean that they aren’t discussing a very similar counter-offer, but the overall opinion around baseball circles is that when Toronto made that offer, the Phillies branch thought they would be giving up too much, and declined.

So since the Phillies “denied” the initial offer, does that mean that this trade for Roy Halladay won’t happen?

 

Well, that depends who you ask.

Jon Heyman, a writer from Sports Illustrated who has been following this situation from the time the rumors started spreading about three months ago, believes it will.  Heyman believes that the Phillies will only include one of  J.A Happ or Kyle Drabek instead of both (something that has been rumored for some time now), but that Blue Jays GM J.P Richardi will ultimately pull the trigger on a deal because he realizes that the Phillies give the Blue Jays the best shot to get ultimate value in return for Halladay. That’s why he says that a trade that was once viewed as “50/50″ now has a good shot of getting pulled off.

However, Jayson Stark of ESPN, who reported that the Blue Jays want to much in return for Halladay, believes that the Phillies and Blue Jays are much further away from a deal than some think. Stark reported Saturday that while the Phillies and Blue Jays have narrowed it down to seven or eight names of guys who may be included in a potential deal that Halladay, J.P Richardi,  and the Phillies believe that no deal will be done come the July 28th self-imposed trade deadline made by the Blue Jays.

Personally, I am one who thinks like Heyman, and I believe that there is too much involved in this deal to pull the trigger. The Blue Jays want Happ and Drabek, they’ve said that from the start. The Phillies do not want to give up both Happ and Drabek, they’ve also said that from the start.

Something has got to give, right?

Stay tuned..

PHILLIES: “Doc” Halladay to Philly?

The rumors are swirling. Toronto Blue Jays G.M J.P Richardi came out to the media yesterday saying that he is willing to listen to offers for their ace, Cy Young award winning pitcher Roy Halladay. The Phillies, in the market for a right-handed pitcher, obviously have interest in Halladay.

 

Acquiring Roy Halladay may make the Phillies the favorites in the N.L to return to the World Series

 

He is currently a top-5 pitcher in baseball, a category he has been in for the past four years. He is 32 years old, still in his pitching prime, and his 141-68 record is amazing considering he has been pitching in the American League for his entire career. If Halladay is traded to an N.L team, he will provide a impact greater than the C.C Sabathia trade for the Brewers last season, no questions asked.

In fact, it already has been speculated that the Phillies may be the leaders to get Halladay at this point. According to SI’s Jon Heyman, Halladay would only accept a trade to three teams, Philadelphia being one of them. So, deal done right? The Phillies are built to win now, as Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard are all in the middle of the prime of their career, so Ruben Amaro needs to go out and get Halladay to ensure a “win-now” philosophy. Not so fast.

In order to get Halladay via trade, the Phillies will have to give up at least four young, highly-regarded players, similar to what the Milwaukee Brewers traded to get Sabathia last year. One of those prospects, Jason Donald, seems to be a trading chip, as the Blue Jays are in the market for a middle-infield prospect for the future. So, with all the elements that trading for a top-5 pitcher would entail, here is my breakdown of what the Phillies would have to give up to get Halladay. 

(To look a similar breakdown, here is David Murphy’s “High Cheese” column from the Philadelphia Inquirer)

Jason Donald, a top young pitching prospect (Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Yohan Flande), a top young position player (Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson), and a pro-ready prospect (John Mayberry Jr., Andrew Carpenter, Kyle Kendrick, Joe Savery)

A lot of these combinations the Blue Jays wouldn’t take for Halladay, as I’m sure they will need to be blown away with an offer to trade away arguably the most valuable player on a team who is still in a playoff race. To eliminate a couple options, Savery doesn’t have enough value yet to be a piece of a blockbuster trade, Kendrick has lost too much value since losing his spot in the starting rotation a year ago to be a part of a trade to acquire a top-flight starter, and Flande is too raw for the Blue Jays to gamble on him at this point of his career. Also, it will be tough to include more than one of the outfield prospects (Mayberry, Brown, Taylor) in an offer because the Blue Jays already have Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, and Adam Lind. With that said, here are a few combinations that the Blue Jays may have to consider.

1. Donald, Drabek, Marson, Mayberry

2. Donald, Knapp, Marson, Taylor

3. Donald, Brown, Marson, Carrasco

4. Donald, Drabek, Taylor, Carpenter

All these options give the Blue Jays pretty good value for Halladay. Donald is the centerpiece, a middle-infield prospect ranked 4th overall in the Phillies organization. In every combination, the Blue Jays will get four of the top 11 prospects in the Phillies organization. Some my consider this the price the Phillies have to pay to repeat as champions, but I don’t buy that. The Phillies won the World Series last year with Cole Hamels going 13-10 in the regular season, an in-experienced J.A Happ, and an ineffective Kyle Kendrick in the rotation, and an inconsistent Pat Burrell in the lineup instead of an all-star in Raul Ibanez. Also,  Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pedro Feliz have elevated their play to a borderline all-star level this year, giving the Phillies are more potent and consistent lineup than even last year. The Phillies CAN win without Halladay.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the Phillies shouldn’t go out and get Halladay. As I said before, he is a top-5 pitcher in baseball, and will most certainly vault the Phillies towards the top of the National League. But is trading the entire front-end of a farm system worth it? Is sacrificing ten years in the future for one year worth it? It may be, if the Phillies can get Halladay, who will be a huge demand on the the payroll (due $15.75 million), for the right price.