PHILLIES: Breakdown of Trade Rumors

Been a pretty crazy last 48 hours if I do say so myself.

Kyle Kendrick gets optioned to Triple-A, Jamie Moyer gets hurt and placed on the disabled list, Phillies fall to seven games back in the NL East, and last but not least, ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE.

Well, everything except the last one.

Sort of.

Only three games over .500 at the end of July, the hands of the Phillies organization are reaching towards the panic button, and slowly but surely, reaching to push it (and for good reason). With Kendrick and Moyer out of the fold for presumably the rest of the season, that leaves THREE pitchers (Halladay, Hamels, Blanton) who can be deemed as starters based on their big league careers. As most of you know, a normal major league pitching rotation is usually satisfied with FIVE pitchers.

By means of basic subtraction, that means the Phillies have TWO spots they have to fill.

Unless he is dealt, for the time being it looks like one of those spots belongs to J.A Happ. After pitching three scoreless innings with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday, Happ was abruptly pulled from his start vs. Indianapolis. In his postgame press conference, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said that Happ “will be helping us”. Can’t be too sure what is meant by that, especially when it is said by the Good Ole’ Southern Boy himself, but  for the sake of the post, the likelihood of Happ being on a plane to St. Louis as the Phillies potential starter on Saturday night against Colorado is high.

The second spot, well, that’s not so clear. By process of elimination (No Moyer, No Kendrick, No Carpenter), that spot belongs to..VANCE WORLEY. Not really a household name, so if you don’t know him, that’s okay, you can keep your fan card. With a 9-3 record at Reading this year, Worley being added to the big league roster instead of one of the stockpile of pitchers at Lehigh Valley completes the unusual move of promoting a Double-A pitcher straight to the majors for his big league debut.

Unusual, yes it was, but it does happen. Unfortunately for Worley,  it may not get that far.

When Moyer went down with a “strained” left elbow around 8:45 P.M ET Tuesday, that was most likely the cue for GM Ruben Amaro to get on the phone and begin to take the steps on pulling the trigger on a deal to obtain a top-notch starting pitcher that has been speculated about for the past two months. And low and behold, by the end of the night, talks with the Houston Astros to obtain ace SP Roy Oswalt were considered “hot and heavy” by multiple sources, including ESPN Baseball Insider Jayson Stark and FOX Sports Baseball Columnist Ken Rosenthal.

So is Oswalt to the Phillies a done deal?

Probably not, there are multiple obstacles.

The biggest one: Oswalt demanding that his potential new home pick up his $16 million option for 2012 is probably the biggest one.  When all is said and done, that could be too steep of a price for the Phillies who will also have Joe Blanton ($8.5 Mil in 2012) under contract and will most likely try to resign Cole Hamels after a 2011 season where he will be making $9.5 million.

That’s a lot of money to be invested in three arms that are not relatively fresh by MLB standards.

Plus, it’s not like money grows on trees. Well, unless you are the New York Yankees..

Also, Ruben Amaro and company seem to have a contingency plan if the Oswalt deal falls by the wayside.  The Phillies are reportedly in talks with multiple teams about acquiring Arizona’s Dan Haren, Oakland’s Ben Sheets, or Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie. Truth be told, a deal for any of these pitchers might be more attractive than Oswalt at the end of the day because of a lower asking price and cap-friendly contracts.

With all that has been speculated recently (players at the four main levels of organization have been mentioned) on what the Phillies would have to give up, it’s almost impossible to predict who could be in the deal when a deal is done (and it will be done). However, what we do know is that it is going to take a collection of players, most likely three or four in total, and lastly, another team (Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have been said to be interested) to help facilitate a trade that would bring Roy Oswalt (or Dan Haren) and prospects to Philadelphia. All things considered, I still think they are leaning towards that kind of blockbuster deal rather than a one-year rental on Sheets, Guthrie, or Jake Westbrook.

With that said, here’s the breakdown of who has been mentioned and how they factor into a possible trade for a top-notch starter.

WHAT THE PHILLIES WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO GIVE UP

Possibly 1 Everyday Big Leaguer: Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez

1 or 2 Guys who are MLB Ready (or close): J.A Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo, Mike Zagurski, Drew Carpenter, John Mayberry Jr., Joe Savery, Vance Worley

1 Top Prospect: Jared Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Brody Colvin, Anthony Gose, Phillipe Aumont, Matthew Way

One of the players who is noticeably absent from that breakdown is Domonic Brown. The rationale there is if the Phillies didn’t include him for deals to obtain Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay, then they won’t include him on a deal for any of these available pitchers, especially since his stock has only grown since Philadelphia pulled off a their last blockbuster this offseason.

Now, it’s quite possible that Brown will be moved. Not denying that. However, I’m going to go out there on a limb and say that it will be restricted to just the Phillies clubhouse, where he will prepare to make his big league debut for the organization that has brought him up through the ranks over the last three years.

Even with this estimate though, and the Brown prediction, so many others are fair game. There are 100+ players within the Phillies organization, and maybe 10 have the “untouchable” label that is so difficult to attain.

Then again, Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek was considered “untouchable” this time last year.

And look what happened to him.

Updates will be given throughout the night..

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6:30 PM WED: As reported by Phillies MLB.COM Beat Writer Todd Zolecki, Vance Worley was added as an extra long-reliever, much like Drew Carpenter’s recent 24-hour role with the Phillies. Philadelphia now has FOUR starters (Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ when he’s added) on their roster. No starter announced for Saturday yet, which was Kendrick’s spot.

11:45 PM WED: Phillies scouts are apparently present for Dan Haren’s start tonight. Not surprising, since CSN’s Jim Salisbury believes the Phillies may stick with what they have in terms if pitching if they can’t get Haren or Roy Oswalt. I still think they get one of the two mentioned, but if that is impossible, there is NO WAY they stand pat. In fact, I’m going to go further. Here are two other names who have popped up in trade rumors because of their alleged availability. Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona and Arizona’s Edwin Jackson.

PHILLIES: A Look at the Farm System

With the trade deadline less than a month away, one part of the Phillies organization that is surely under a large microscope is their farm system. Months removed from trading six of their top 15 prospects in deals to acquire both Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, the current Phillies prospects are not as highly-regarded as they once were. However,  if a trade to acquire a certain utility player or pitching help is to be made, then it is important to recognize those who are not at the big league level within the organization.

This look into the minor leagues is not gauged on who is ranked the top prospects by baseball insiders, but is based on the players who may be gaining notoriety inside the organization or in baseball circles because of their reputation, talent, performance at the minor league level, or trade value come July 31st.

Phillies Minor Leaguers: 10 Prospects To Watch

Stats Updated as of July 5th, 2010.

: OF Domonic Brown: A given on this list.  Not only the #1 overall prospect in the Phillies organization, but ESPN recently ranked him as the #1 overall prospect in all of baseball. Even with all the accolades he’s already received, his play is showing that the hype is warranted. The 22 year-old has graduated through three levels of the minor leagues the last year and a half. He was probably the Eastern League MVP at Double-A Reading through two months, but was promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the middle of June. Since then, in 12 G in Triple-A, his .405 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBI’s is just flat out ridiculous. So is his overall athleticism, in which he was a former baseball and football recruit for the University of Miami before signing with the Phillies.

: P Jared Cosart: Top 100 prospect who was selected to 2010 Futures game in Anaheim along with Brown. 7-3 record at Single-A Lakewood with a 3.79 ERA and 77 K’s. Upper 90’s Fastball. Currently on the disabled list.

: 1B Jonathan Singleton: Just 18 years old when the 2010 season started. .347 BA, 10 HR, 48 RBI’s at Single-A Lakewood. May have biggest upside besides Brown, and has had the biggest rise this year in baseball circles out of any other member of the Phillies farm system. Will be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball at the start of next season. With Ryan Howard under contract until 2014, if the Phillies were to be involved in a blockbuster trade at any point, Singelton will most likely be the centerpiece if the team involved wants prospects.

: C Sebastian Valle: After the Phillies dealt Lou Marson and Travis D’Arnaud in the last year, that made Valle the top catching prospect in the organization. Remember, he’s still just 19 years old, playing the position that is the most difficult to flourish at when it comes to big league production. .265 BA, 9 HR, 4 RBI’s at Single-A Lakewood shows promise.

: OF Anthony Gose: By far the fastest player in the organization. Had 76 SB in 2008 with Single-A Lakewood. Solid defensively but still very raw at the plate. At 19 years old, he’s at Advanced-A Clearwater with a ways to go.

: P Phillipe Aumont: Top Prospect that the Phillies got back from Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade. The pre-season top 100 prospect in all of baseball drew much criticism when he went 1-6 in two months at Double-A Reading this season. Aumont got sent down to Advanced-A Clearwater in June, where he is 0-0 in 5 games with a 4.91 ERA.

: OF Tyson Gillies: Another highly regarded prospect acquired in the Cliff Lee deal to Seattle. A high energy guy that impressed in Spring Training but has battled injuries and inconsistency all year at Double-A Reading (.238 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI’s in 26 games).

: OF John Mayberry Jr: Made his debut with the Phillies last year, but struggled to make consistent contact and has spent the entire 2010 season so far at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Got off to a hot start, but since enduring a knee/ankle injury in the middle of June, he’s really struggled. Stat-line curently sitting at .241 BA, 10 HR, 42 RBI’s through 74 games. Behind Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and now Domonic Brown on the organizational depth chart at OF, a move for an infielder to fill-in for Chase Utley and Placido Polanco may include Mayberry. That is, if the teams actually want him.

: P Joe Savery: Former 1^st rounder (2007) out of Rice University. Had 16 wins last year combined at Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but as struggled mightily this year as a starter with the Iron Pigs (1-8) and has been converted into a reliever at Triple-A.

: 3B/OF Anthony Hewitt: Former first rounder (2008) out of HS. Has struggled in 2 years in the minors, but is still very raw, and is finally figure out minor league pitching (.271, 7 HR, 33 RBIs at  Single-A Lakewood). Doesn’t have a position yet.

Others You Should Know:

- P Andrew Carpenter: (25 years old. Made big league debut with the Philadelphia in 2009, and started off the 2010 season on the big league 25-man roster as a member of the Phillies bullpen. 7-6 with the 3.21 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh Valley)

- 1B Matthew Rizzoti: (24 years old. 1B prospect that has come out of nowhere this year at Double-A Reading. Hitting a team high .366 with 11 HR and 43 RBI’s since being called up from Advanced-A Clearwater in May. )

- SS Freddy Galvis: (20 years old. Probably the best defensive prospect in the organization. It is believed that the 2010 Eastern League All-star play SS at the big league level right now from a defensive standpoint. Struggles at the dish but is making improvements. .226 BA, 2 HR, 28 RBI’s at Double-A Reading.

- P J.C Ramirez: (21 years old. 2-1 at Double-A Reading in first season with the organization after being the 3^rd prospect acquired by the Phillies via Seattle for Cliff Lee)

- 3B Harold Garcia ( 24 years old. Advanced-A Clearwater. Set team-record with a 36 game hitting streak earlier this season. Named the Phillies minor league player of the month for June.)

- P Jesus Sanchez: (21 years old. 7-4 with a 2.67 ERA at Advanced-A Clearwater)

- P Trevor May: ( 20 years old. A pre-season top 10 prospect in the organization. Has underperformed at bit, 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA at Advanced-A Clearwater)

- OF Cody Overbeck: (24 years old. 9^th round draft pick in 2008. .302 BA, 11 HR, 41 RBI’s at Advanced-A Clearwater)

- P Matthew Way: ( 23 Years old. 7-4 record with a 3.65 ERA at SS Single-A Lakewood)

PHILLIES: Draft Drama

For those who don’t know, the Major League Baseball draft starts tonight.

With that said, WHEN Bryce Harper is selected as the #1 overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, that will start the trickle down effect of the 50 round selection process, deciding the fate of over 2,000 baseball prospects who have entered their names into the draft.

Needless to say, from a sport vs. sport perspective, the next three days will be much different then you will see in the NBA draft process (2 rounds), or even the NFL draft process (7 rounds).

For the Phillies, their first selection will be in the first round, in which they hold the rights to the 27th overall pick. Since it’s virtually impossible to do a mock draft with the amount of potential prospects and the added element of actually signing them, at this point of the process, the best way do a “draft breakdown” is to break down their past draft success, and some of the areas of need for the organization.

First of all, if you look at the Phillies roster, you will see that a good number of the guys that compile the 25-man and even the 40-man roster are homegrown, meaning they were drafted by Philadelphia. Considering the Phillies have won three straight NL East titles and have gone to the past two World Series while primarily the same nucleus of players, that’s a testament to the members of the Philadelphia organization, and most importantly, their scouting department.

Here are some of the notable players that the Phillies have drafted and kept within the organization in previous years.

One of the many members of the Phillies farm system to make a splash in Philly

1996: Jimmy Rollins (2nd round)

1998: Ryan Madson (9th round)

2000: Chase Utley (1st round)

2001: Ryan Howard (5th round)

2002: Cole Hamels (1st round)

2003: Kyle Kendrick (7th round)

2006: Dominic Brown (The Phillies current top prospect was drafted in the 20th round)

Looking at the the list, which includes two MVP’s (Rollins, Howard), a perennial MVP candidate (Utley), a potential ace (Hamels), and a potential five-tool outfielder (Brown), that’s a pretty impressive job done by the Phillies front office.

They will have their hands full this year though, as their are really two areas of the Phillies farm system that should and could be addressed in the first round.

Catcher: The departures of Jason Jaramillo, Lou Marson, and Travis D’Arnaud in the last two years via trades have left the Phillies without a premiere, young catching prospect who is near big league ready. From a talent perspective, the only one who right now projects as a future major leaguer is Sebastian Valle, who at 19 years of age, is still at least two or three years away from making a contribution at the big league level. Other than Valle, the Phillies do not have much of an emphasis on “future” when it comes to the catching position (no offense to guys like Paul Hoover or Kevin Nelson).

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: JR Yasmani Grandal (University of Miami), SR Mike Kvasnicka (University of Minnesota), Kellin Deglan (Canada), Justin O’Connor (HS)

Pitcher: There is always a need for pitching, especially if the talent is there on the board when you are selection. For the Phillies though, it’s also a need. A year removed from trading away their there top pitching prospects in Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Knapp in deals to obtain Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay,  the jury is still out in regards to the pitchers within the Phillies minor league system. Top pitching prospect Phillipe Aumont was just demoted from Double-A Reading for his struggles, and both Drew Carpenter and Joe Savery (1st round pick in 2007) haven’t quite lived up to their billing as future contributors for Philadelphia. When it comes to this years draft, if there is a year to take a chance on a pitcher, it’s in 2010, as two pitchers with local ties are slated to be selected in the back end of the first round. Both Jesse Biddle (Germantown Friends School HS Senior), and Cam Bedrosian (son of former Phillies pitcher Steve Bedrosian) have risen up draft boards in the last few weeks, and it likely that at least one of them will still be there when the 27th selection in the first round rolls along.

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: Biddle (Projected Pick), Bedrosian, JR Drew Pomeranz (University of Mississippi)

Other: The Phillies have everyone in their starting infield locked up until at least 2012, and they have spent their last two of their last three top picks (Kelly Dugan and Anthony Hewitt) on infielders. With that said, I don’t see them addressing needs within the infield in the first round. In terms of outfielders, a lot relies on how the Phillies negotiations are going with signing Jayson Werth to a long-term deal. The Phillies still have their top prospect in Brown along with John Mayberry Jr. buried on the outfield depth chart below Werth, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez, and have a few others, including two speedsters in Quentin Berry and Anthony Gose, who have the potential to make a big league impact in a couple years. However, if a couple of the premiere OF prospects in this years draft end up falling to the bottom half of round one, such as HS senior Austin Wilson, things could get a little interesting.

Projection: Biddle or Bedrosian (whoever is still on the board or they think they have a better chance to sign). If that isn’t possible, then their highest ranked catcher still on the board should be the pick. If Wilson drops all the way to 27 though, his talent may be too much to pass up.

Should be a fun couple days..

PHILLIES: “Doc” Halladay to Philly?

The rumors are swirling. Toronto Blue Jays G.M J.P Richardi came out to the media yesterday saying that he is willing to listen to offers for their ace, Cy Young award winning pitcher Roy Halladay. The Phillies, in the market for a right-handed pitcher, obviously have interest in Halladay.

 

Acquiring Roy Halladay may make the Phillies the favorites in the N.L to return to the World Series

 

He is currently a top-5 pitcher in baseball, a category he has been in for the past four years. He is 32 years old, still in his pitching prime, and his 141-68 record is amazing considering he has been pitching in the American League for his entire career. If Halladay is traded to an N.L team, he will provide a impact greater than the C.C Sabathia trade for the Brewers last season, no questions asked.

In fact, it already has been speculated that the Phillies may be the leaders to get Halladay at this point. According to SI’s Jon Heyman, Halladay would only accept a trade to three teams, Philadelphia being one of them. So, deal done right? The Phillies are built to win now, as Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard are all in the middle of the prime of their career, so Ruben Amaro needs to go out and get Halladay to ensure a “win-now” philosophy. Not so fast.

In order to get Halladay via trade, the Phillies will have to give up at least four young, highly-regarded players, similar to what the Milwaukee Brewers traded to get Sabathia last year. One of those prospects, Jason Donald, seems to be a trading chip, as the Blue Jays are in the market for a middle-infield prospect for the future. So, with all the elements that trading for a top-5 pitcher would entail, here is my breakdown of what the Phillies would have to give up to get Halladay. 

(To look a similar breakdown, here is David Murphy’s “High Cheese” column from the Philadelphia Inquirer)

Jason Donald, a top young pitching prospect (Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Yohan Flande), a top young position player (Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson), and a pro-ready prospect (John Mayberry Jr., Andrew Carpenter, Kyle Kendrick, Joe Savery)

A lot of these combinations the Blue Jays wouldn’t take for Halladay, as I’m sure they will need to be blown away with an offer to trade away arguably the most valuable player on a team who is still in a playoff race. To eliminate a couple options, Savery doesn’t have enough value yet to be a piece of a blockbuster trade, Kendrick has lost too much value since losing his spot in the starting rotation a year ago to be a part of a trade to acquire a top-flight starter, and Flande is too raw for the Blue Jays to gamble on him at this point of his career. Also, it will be tough to include more than one of the outfield prospects (Mayberry, Brown, Taylor) in an offer because the Blue Jays already have Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, and Adam Lind. With that said, here are a few combinations that the Blue Jays may have to consider.

1. Donald, Drabek, Marson, Mayberry

2. Donald, Knapp, Marson, Taylor

3. Donald, Brown, Marson, Carrasco

4. Donald, Drabek, Taylor, Carpenter

All these options give the Blue Jays pretty good value for Halladay. Donald is the centerpiece, a middle-infield prospect ranked 4th overall in the Phillies organization. In every combination, the Blue Jays will get four of the top 11 prospects in the Phillies organization. Some my consider this the price the Phillies have to pay to repeat as champions, but I don’t buy that. The Phillies won the World Series last year with Cole Hamels going 13-10 in the regular season, an in-experienced J.A Happ, and an ineffective Kyle Kendrick in the rotation, and an inconsistent Pat Burrell in the lineup instead of an all-star in Raul Ibanez. Also,  Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pedro Feliz have elevated their play to a borderline all-star level this year, giving the Phillies are more potent and consistent lineup than even last year. The Phillies CAN win without Halladay.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the Phillies shouldn’t go out and get Halladay. As I said before, he is a top-5 pitcher in baseball, and will most certainly vault the Phillies towards the top of the National League. But is trading the entire front-end of a farm system worth it? Is sacrificing ten years in the future for one year worth it? It may be, if the Phillies can get Halladay, who will be a huge demand on the the payroll (due $15.75 million), for the right price.

PHILLIES: Bastardo to Miss a Start

After leaving a game vs. Tampa Bay earlier this week with tightness in his left shoulder, the Phillies were worried about Antonio Bastardo. That’s to be expected with a young 23- year-old pitcher, and due to the fact that Bastardo missed two months last season because of problems in that same shoulder, the Phillies feared for the worst. After seeing two doctors in the Philadelphia area, the results are in, and are not as bad as once thought. Bastardo has a shoulder strain and will miss his scheduled start, which is due to be July 1st against the Atlanta Braves. Due to the usual Monday off-day, it is unclear when a pitcher will be brought up to take the place of Bastardo, because the off day allows the pitchers to have the correct rest to pitch on a normal schedule. Early reports from the Philles are saying that Joe Blanton will start the first game of the Atlanta series on Tuesday, Cole Hamels will start Wednesday, and the Phillies will bring up a pitcher to start the final game of the 3-game series on Thursday. If the Phillies don’t abide by that, and throw J.A Happ  on Thursday, and Jamie Moyer Friday against the Mets, then the Phillies, at the latest, will need to bring up a pitcher on Saturday, July 4th, for the second game of a 3-game series against the Mets. Oh, how patriotic? Here are some of the candidates to replace Bastardo in the rotation.

Likely Possibilities

RHP Andrew Carpenter (7-1 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley): Phillies fans saw a glimpse of Carpenter last month in a spot-start against the Washington Nationals. Carpenter did what he had to do, pitch 4 2/3 innings in what turned out to be a rain-shortened game, good enough to get the first win of his major league career, something he found out in his hotel room due to the confusion of the rain shortened game. Since that start, which was about a month ago to the day, Carpenter has been lights out at Lehigh Valley. In a five start stretch earlier this month, Carpenter gave up just 3 runs over 34 innings, a sub 1.00 E.RA. After losing his first game of the season last week at Norfolk, Carpenter came back Saturday night against Norfolk, this time at home, and pitched 8 innings of shutout baseball, scattering 5 hits and striking out 7. 

RHP Carlos Carrasco (4-7 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley): Don’t let the record fool you. Carrasco, while he might not be big-league ready, has big league stuff. His 77 strikeouts, good for second-best in the International League, are proof that his stuff is electric, a sentiment reiterated by his Lehigh Valley pitching coach, Rod Nichols . After starting 0-6, and staring at a demotion to Double-A Reading, Carrasco, over the past month, has gone 4-1 with a sub 3.00 E.R.A, regaining the confidence that helped make him a the second-ranked prospect of the Philadelphia Phillies according to Baseball America. His last outing was probably one of his best of the season, going 6 1/3 innings, giving up 1 run, while striking out 7, in a game against the Indianapolis Indians on June 26th. The only way to see if the kid is big league ready, is to see how he does in the big leagues, and this might be the time see what the 22 year-old undrafted kid from Venezuela can do.

RHP Kyle Kendrick (4-4 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley): After his debacle against the Red Sox last month, in which he gave up 3 runs in 1 1/3 innings of relief, I didn’t think I would ever hear is name back on the Phillies 25-man roster. However, with the right situation, that being a July 4th game against the Mets, Kendrick’s experience might vault him to the top of the list, over Carpenter and Carrasco, to being promoted. If that is the case, it will probably Kendrick’s last shot to prove himself to the Phillies organization or any other team that might find him the least bit valuable.

Other Possibilities 

RHP Rodrigo Lopez (5-3 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley): The 2002 AL Runner-up ROY (lost out to Eric Hinske, remember that name?) and two-time 15 game winner is trying to resurrect his career with the Phillies organization after getting Tommy John surgery in 2007. Lopez has pitched well, especially as of late, with 3 straight wins for the Iron Pigs. His lack of velocity and inability to go deep into games may hold him back.

RHP Kyle Drabek (4-0 at Double-A Reading): The popular choice with Philly fans. Drabek was lights out at Advanced-A Clearwater, and after going 4-0 since his promotion to Double-A Reading in Mid-May, the 2006 Phillies first-round draft has been deemed the future of the Phillies pitching rotation. That’s a lot to bear for a 21 year-old kid who has had some maturity issues in the past, not to mention Tommy John surgery in 2007. His mid-90′s fastball and solid secondary pitches makes him attractive to the eye, but due to his age and progression, he’s more likely to get a shot in September and will definitely get a chance to win a job in the rotation in 2010.

Longshot Possibilities 

LHP Gustavo Chacin (2-2 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley): Bounced around from Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley all season, and he has some pretty good results. The former Toronto Blue Jays starter has a solid 3.81 E.R.A in five starts with Lehigh Valley, but is still on a 80 pitch count every time he throws.

LHP Joe Savery (9-1 at Double-A Reading): 9-1 makes Savery look pretty good for a promotion in the near future, but that will most likely be to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, not Philadelphia. The 2007 first-round draft pick is enjoying his first year of true success after going through some growing pains in 2008, but he is still most likely a year away from seeing time in the bigs, as he is still learning the concept of being solely a pitcher, as he was a multi-purpose player at Rice University. It’s harder than you think.

Prediction

Honestly, it really depends on the situation. If the Phillies are done with the Bastardo experiment even when he gets healthy, and are either going to send him to Triple-A or the bullpen, than I think that gives guys like Carrasco, Kendrick, and Drabek an advantage, because the Phillies are going to have to give them more than one start to see if they are ready , and have already said if Kendrick comes up as a starter, it will be for the long-term.

However, the Phillies have changed their tune once or twice this season (bringing Kendrick up for 21 hours, and one game of bullpen duty), and if a July 4th start against the Mets is staring them in the face without a scheduled starter, than I think Kendrick and Carpenter are the frontrunners due to the fact that it’s a rivalry game on a national stage, and Kendrick and Carpenter both have big league experience.

If the rotation normal  its normal route, and a starter is needed for Thursday night in Atlanta, than I think Carrasco and Carpenter have a clear advantage, with a struggling Braves offense, without the attention a rivalry game will bring.

Lastly, if the Phillies follow the Ruben Amaro motto of  ”We’ll bring up the player who is playing the best at the time,” then Kendrick and Chacin will be automatically eliminated and the decision will be a toss-up between Carpenter, Carrasco, Drabek, Savery, and Lopez, all who have pitched extremely well in past month.

When all is said and done, and the Phillies do need to bring up someone, which is inevitably going to happen sometime in the next week, I think it is time the Phillies will take a chance…on Carlos Carrasco.