PHILLIES: Movin’ On

It may have taken just under two weeks, but I think I finally got over the fact that the New York Yankees are the current world champions of baseball, as the late Harry Kalas would say.

Before I view it as just water under the bridge, first, a moment of clarity.

As hard as it is to say, the Yankees deserved it. They were the best team in baseball, something that they paid a lot of money to ensure. Nonetheless, they didn’t let the names on the roster define their play, but their performance on the proved it, and A-Rod, Tex, Jeter and company will be sporting some new jewelry come opening day 2010.

Now, onto the Phillies. Tremendous run this year, and that’s not something I would have said moments after Shane Victorino grounded out weakly to first after he was jammed by a historic Mariano Rivera cut-fastball. Plagued by injuries, bullpen issues, and inconsistent play, there were times throughout the season that I truly believed that the Phillies would be watching the playoffs from the bar on the golf course. That obviously wasn’t the case. The credit to get the Phillies two game shy of back-to-back championships goes all around the organization. However, there are two people (besides of course the players) that are mainly responsible for making this past postseason run back to the fall classic possible.

1. Ruben Amaro: Pulling the trigger on a trade that gave the Phillies an ace (Cliff Lee) and a solid utility outfielder (Ben Francisco) for essentially four minor leagues backed up Amaro’s creditability as a general manager. He didn’t let the Blue Jays J.P Richardi bully him into giving up too much for Roy Halladay, and instead “settled” for Lee, who not only was the ace of the Phillies staff down the stretch, but also pitched worlds better than Halladay in the second half of the season. Also, signing Pedro Martinez midway through the season when so many people, even within the organization, questioned the decision, was a good move. Martinez surpassed all his individual expectations, and also bolstered the teams’ pitching staff and overall intimidation level.

2. Charlie Manuel: He will never be the most well-spoken manager in baseball, but based on success and overall approval by his team, Manuel has to be considered among the best skippers in all of baseball after this season. While he may over-manage at times (something that all managers are guilty of), a majority of the major decisions Manuel made over the course of the season were correct. Some of those decisions included benching Jimmy Rollins for a three-game stretch in June, sending both Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge to the D.L against their will, and sticking with Lidge as a closer in the playoffs (yes, this was the right decision). He’s a tremendous presence in the clubhouse, and should be with this team for a long time. 

As I said before, a great run it was. We got to see Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have tremendous seasons and historic postseasons, solidifying their status as perennial stars in the world of baseball. We got to see the birth of one of arguably the best outfield tandems in all of baseball, as Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth all had career years, with Victorino and Werth seeming to be just entering their prime. With pitching, we got to see Cliff Lee prove he wasn’t a fluke Cy Young award winner, Pedro Martinez resurrect his career, and a rookie in J.A Happ flourish into one the organizations bright young stars.

Needless to say, the future is bright for the Philadelphia Phillies organization.

Now, the show must go on, as the first step to repeating as NL champs is already about to begin.

Free Agency.

In the next post, we will talk about those who may join the Phillies through free agency, along with those who will surely leave the club because of the process.

PHILLIES: Trade Deadline Options

As I write this, it is Monday, July 27th. On Saturday morning at 12:01, August 1st, as it has been for every year in the past two decades, the trade deadline will have been completed. For people who have minimum math skills, that means in less than five days, the public will know if Roy Halladay, or anybody else for that matter, will be added to the Phillies roster via trade. If J.P Richardi’s inclination after the Blue Jays rejected the Phillies offer on Sunday is correct, and Halladay is not dealt, here are some other players who could see themselves heading to Philadelphia.

Plan B?

Cleveland Indians SP Cliff Lee: The Phillies “Plan B” if a trade for Halladay doesn’t work out. Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner, has pitched very well this year even though his 7-9 record doesn’t show it. While his record is under .500, his 3.14 E.R.A has proved that he still has the stuff that made him the ace of the Indians staff last year. In contrast to Halladay, he’s a much cheaper option (only due just over 4 million next year), and would be more willing to sign a long term deal with the Phillies. Unlike his current team the Indians, the Phillies are a contender to go to the playoffs every year with guys like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard a lock to play behind Lee for the next three years if he is headed to Philadelphia. While the Phillies would probably still have to give up a lot for Lee (my prediction is J.A Happ, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Donald), this trade would allow the Phillies to keep their top two prospects, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown.

Seattle Mariners SP Jarrod Washburn: A once-ace for the Angels in the early part of the decade, Washburn has resurrected his career this season with the Seattle Mariners. Just one year removed from going 5-14 and contemplating retirement, Washburn is 8-6 with an impressive 2.71 E.R.A this season with Seattle, and has overtaken Eric Bedard (someone the Phillies were interested in before he went on the D.L last week) as the second-best pitcher on the Mariners starting rotation, making a potent 1-2 punch with ace Felix Hernandez. While Washburn has been impressive this season, his age (35 in August) will make unlikely that he is dealt to Philadelphia for a couple of young prospects (Happ, Drabek, Carrasco ect.). But hey, crazier things have happened.

Pittsburgh Pirates SP Zach Duke: We all know how Pittsburgh loves trading away talent. The Pirates have dealt basically their entire core, including players Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Najer Morgan, and Adam LaRoche in deals during the past year, so I would not be surprised if they trade 2B Freddy Sanchez or Duke by July 31st. The Phillies would be a good destination for Duke, considering that it was Phillies manager Charlie Manuel who selected Duke to his first all-star game this season. Duke is still young (26 years of age), and it obviously wouldn’t take as much to acquire him as it would for Halladay or Lee. With that said, I wouldn’t give up Happ for him, and if the Phillies did acquire him for a couple mid-high level prospects, I doubt the Phillies would be able to make room for him in the starting rotation.

Arizona Diamondbacks RP Chad Qualls: The Phillies bullpen has taken a mighty hit over the past couple days, as three relief pitchers have been sent to the disabled list. However, even before that, the Phillies reportedly had interest for Qualls. Most of the trade rumors have said the Phillies are mostly in the market for starting pitching, but with recent injury concerns of J.C Romero, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin, the hard-throwing righty Qualls will certainly garner some attention from the Phillies branch.

Washington Nationals OF Josh Willingham: In the off-season, when the Phillies were in the running to sign then free-agent OF Gary Sheffield, a big fuss was made about how the Phillies need a solid right-handed bat off the bench. Well, three months into the season, the Phillies still have that problem. Eric Bruntlett may be one of the worst hitters in baseball when it comes to position players (.128 BA) and John Mayberry Jr. has looked quite overmatched at times in the past month in his first stint against big league pitching. Willingham is having a pretty solid offensive season (.291 BA, 14 HR), even though hasn’t been a full-time starter all year, but has expressed his desire to play for a contender, something the Nationals obviously aren’t. Earlier this week, some reports were saying that the Nationals were interested in sending Willingham to Philadelphia for the much maligned Kyle Kendrick, but as of right now, it seems that the Phillies will need to give up a little more than that for a guy who his on pace for 25 HR’s.

 

Of course, other names could come up within the next 72 hours or so, but these are the players who have been targeted by the Phillies.

More to come over the next couple days as the trade deadline comes closer.

PHILLIES: Blue Jays Reject Phillies Offer for Halladay

Just one day after the Phillies decided against a trade that would send J.A Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown to Toronto for Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays reacted in similar fashion, denying a formal offer proposed by the Phillies.

Instead of dealing both Happ and Drabek, the Phillies took Drabek, and Brown for that matter, off the table, and counter-offered with J.A Happ, Michael Taylor, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald. The Blue Jays followed the Phillies tune from Friday, and immediately rejected the trade, as Blue Jays J.P Richardi reacted by bluntly saying “that’s not going to work.”

Obviously, the two teams are still far apart on working out a potential deal that would send Halladay to Philadelphia. While the Phillies are still in discussions with the Blue Jays, and are still likely the favorites to land Halladay because of the pieces they have in the form of prospects, the Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, and Dodgers have all entered the mix. 

Even though the MLB trade deadline is July 31st, the Blue Jays organization has issued a self-imposed trade deadline for Halladay on July 28th.

Should we start the countdown?

Two Days.

PHILLIES: Halladay Discussions “Heating Up”

So, I was at Hershey Park yesterday, enjoying a four-hour flashback to my childhood, where a buddy of mine who I was with received a phone call saying that it was “inevitable” that the Phillies were going to acquire Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. 

 

Destined for Philly?

Coming home hours later and immediately jumping into the internet, it was easy to see how the rush to that conclusion was made. The headline on ESPN.com was the exact title of this post, and for good reason. The Blue Jays made a formal offer to the Phillies, a trade that would send Halladay to the Phils for J.A Happ, top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, and the top overall prospect in the organization, outfielder Dominic Brown.

The consensus is that the Phillies denied that first offer, which likely seems to be the case because a deal is not done yet.  That doesn’t mean that they aren’t discussing a very similar counter-offer, but the overall opinion around baseball circles is that when Toronto made that offer, the Phillies branch thought they would be giving up too much, and declined.

So since the Phillies “denied” the initial offer, does that mean that this trade for Roy Halladay won’t happen?

 

Well, that depends who you ask.

Jon Heyman, a writer from Sports Illustrated who has been following this situation from the time the rumors started spreading about three months ago, believes it will.  Heyman believes that the Phillies will only include one of  J.A Happ or Kyle Drabek instead of both (something that has been rumored for some time now), but that Blue Jays GM J.P Richardi will ultimately pull the trigger on a deal because he realizes that the Phillies give the Blue Jays the best shot to get ultimate value in return for Halladay. That’s why he says that a trade that was once viewed as “50/50″ now has a good shot of getting pulled off.

However, Jayson Stark of ESPN, who reported that the Blue Jays want to much in return for Halladay, believes that the Phillies and Blue Jays are much further away from a deal than some think. Stark reported Saturday that while the Phillies and Blue Jays have narrowed it down to seven or eight names of guys who may be included in a potential deal that Halladay, J.P Richardi,  and the Phillies believe that no deal will be done come the July 28th self-imposed trade deadline made by the Blue Jays.

Personally, I am one who thinks like Heyman, and I believe that there is too much involved in this deal to pull the trigger. The Blue Jays want Happ and Drabek, they’ve said that from the start. The Phillies do not want to give up both Happ and Drabek, they’ve also said that from the start.

Something has got to give, right?

Stay tuned..

PHILLIES: Analyzing a Trade For Roy Halladay

Since Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay was put on the trade market about two weeks ago, the Philadelphia Phillies have been considered a top trading partner with the Blue Jays to acquire him. Halladay, who was the starting pitcher for the AL in the All-Star game this week, has been a top-3 pitcher in baseball this year, and the Phillies would most likely have to blow away the Blue Jays with an offer to get him. 

However, a lot has happened in the past two weeks, and the prospects included in the potential trade have been narrowed down somewhat. After the Pedro Martinez signing, I said that J.A Happ will have to be included in a trade for Halladay because, quite frankly, the Phillies will need to make room in the rotation for Halladay, and Happ has the most trade value of members in the rotation that are expendable. 

I still agree with that.

If the Phillies trade for Halladay, J.A Happ is gone, mark my words.

 

There is no room for Jason Donald in the Phillies lineup

When this whole Halladay to the Phillies possible trade came out, it was reported that Jason Donald was going to be involved in the trade because the Blue Jays have a need at the middle infield positions. Well, for one, they sure don’t have to fill a need at 2B, as Aaron Hill was the starter for the AL in the All-Star game last week. However, it is at shortstop where lies the need for Donald in a Blue Jays uniform. Marco Scutaro, a career utility player and journeyman, is currently starting at SS for Toronto, and even though he is playing well this season, enough said. Scutaro is, at best, a first guy off the bench on a playoff-bound team, and Jason Donald, a natural SS, would be a huge upgrade for them with his defense and speed at the top of the lineup. Donald is currently sidelined while recovering from surgery to his left knee (torn meniscus), but is scheduled to come back within the next week, just in time for a trade to be completed before the deadline.

 

If the Phillies trade for Halladay, Donald is as good as gone.

Now here is where it gets a little dicey. If the Blue Jays are willing to part ways with Halladay for prospects, then they are obviously building for the future and trying to get rid of players that they invested a lot of money in during the past. With that said, if Halladay goes, than either RF Alex Rios or CF Vernon Wells will most likely also be gone within the next season. If the Blue Jays are indeed trying to do that, than they will most likely ask the Phillies for an outfield prospect who is both talented and ready to step into a big league lineup. Is it any coincidence that one of the Phillies top OF prospects, Michael Taylor, was promoted from Double-A Reading to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the past week.  

I think not.

 

Michael Taylor has the making of a perennial all-star

The Phillies want to see how Michael Taylor does against better competition to gauge whether Taylor should be included in this trade. Honestly, I think trading Taylor is a huge mistake, in fear that has the makeup (6’6 260) and the ability (5-tool player) to be a perennial all-star in the the big leagues. However, there is currently no room for Taylor in the Phillies lineup, and there probably won’t be for another two years until the contract of Raul Ibanez is finished. Holding Michael Taylor back and making him a minor league all-star or big league bench warmer for the next two seasons doesn’t really make sense for the organization, and since they have OF Dominic Brown, who is actually a higher rated prospect than Taylor, waiting in the wings at Single-A Lakewood, it’s a strong possibility the Phillies might have to part with a potential star.

 

If the Phillies trade for Halladay, there is a good chance Michael Taylor will be Toronto bound.

Now, if this is all the Blue Jays would want for Halladay, my reluctance to give away Taylor would overruled by Halladay’s ace-like presence, and I would do the deal in a heartbeat. For the Phillies, acquiring Roy Halladay would make them the odds-on favorite to not only make it to the World Series this year, but also next year, as he is signed through 2010. You can’t complain with that. Halliday in a Phillies uniform, especially if he gets signed to a long-term deal, gives the city of Philadelphia the best chance to see a sports dynasty that has never been present since the four area teams started playing their home games in South Philly.

 

Another parade down Broad Street would make a trade for Halliday worth every cent

However, the asking price for Halladay may be more than that. The Blue Jays have been said to want the Phillies top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, in a deal to bring Halladay to Philadelphia. Pitching prospects with the pedigree and the talent that Kyle Drabek possesses is as rare as getting struck by lightening, and Happ and Drabek might be to much to give away for Ruben Amaro, especially if Phillies don’t have the absolute confidence that they can sign Halladay to a long-term deal after this season.

If the Blue Jays request Drabek from the Phillies in a trade, than Halladay stays north of the border.

That might not be the end of the world for the Blue Jays thought The Phillies have a plethora of highly-touted pitching prospects in their farm system. However, by making J.A Happ the centerpiece of a potential trade, the Blue Jays will already get a guy who has proven himself in the big leagues, so guys in the Phillies organization such as Kyle Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter who are more big-league ready will most likely stay in the Phillies organization because the Blue Jays will want somebody with more upside. 

That’s fine, the Phillies have plenty of guys in their farm system with upside, especially on the pitchers’ mound.

Even without Drabek, the Phillies have Carlos Carrasco, Yohan Flande, and Jason Knapp, all who are under the age of 23 and are raw, but all also top pitching prospects within the Phillies organization. These players define “upside”.

With all this, this whole situation is still very tough to predict, as a couple questions arise.

 

Are the Blue Jays content with getting  just  J.A Happ, Jason Donald, and Michael Taylor in return?

Do the Blue Jays prefer Michael Taylor over Dominic Brown?

Is unloading Kyle Drabek too much for the Phillies?

Will Blue Jays G.M J.P Richardi ask for three, four, or five players in return for Roy Halladay?

If the Blue Jays want more in return, instead of a pitcher with “upside”, could the Blue Jays ask for a position player such a John Mayberry Jr. or Lou Marson?

If the Blue Jays are unloading Vernon Wells or Alex Rios to other teams at the trade deadline, will they ask for Jayson Werth from the Phillies?

 

There is just one thing that easy to predict with absolute certainty. That is, we will know the answers to these questions by July 31st.

PHILLIES: Drabek Impresses at 2009 Futures Game

Philadelphia Phillies prospect Kyle Drabek has been in this blog a lot as of late. Widely known as one of the best prospects within the organization, Drabek’s name has been brought up for a variety of reasons. When Antonio Bastardo went down, fans wanted to see the 21-year old flame thrower up in the big leagues. When Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P Richardi decided to put pitcher Roy Halladay on the trading block, Drabek was mentioned as one of the centerpieces of the a potential proposed trade. With all the notoriety surrounding the 21-year old kid flamethrower, it was no surprise seeing Drabek in the Futures Game when it took place Sunday night in St. Louis as a part of the 2009 All-Star festivities. 

For baseball fans who have never heard of the Futures Game, you’re missing out. It’s no ordinary all-star game. It’s the best prospects from all around minor-league baseball meet to play in a game on the eve of  the MLB All-Star festivities, truly the most accurate look into what baseball will be like 20 years into the “future”. If you don’t believe that, here are some of the recent MVP’s of the game. Alfonso Soriano, Jose Reyes, Grady Sizemore, Aaron Hill, all guys who have been in the MLB All-Star Game in the past two years and were featured in the Futures Game. It’s a pretty big deal if you haven’t noticed after reading this last paragraph.

So for Drabek, the Phillies 1st round draft pick in 2006, to be able to go to St. Louis and play in this game with the best prospects in baseball, is a huge step forward in his career. This is a kid who was destined for greatness when he came out of the womb. That’s what happens when you have a Cy Young Award winning pitcher, Doug Drabek, as your father. 

Needless to say, that’s a lot to live up to, and Drabek must have felt pressure doing so. A bad temper, a few minor bouts with the law, and general immaturity issues led to Drabek falling to the Phillies in the middle of the first round. It’s was too tough to pass up, the pedigree, the genes, the 97 mph fastball and knee-buckling curveball, all of it. The Phillies selected him 18th overall in the 2006 draft.

Three years later, after shedding the spoiled rich kid mentality, Tommy John Surgery,  and a humbling 2008 season in the minors, Drabek finally looks like the kid who was regarding as the top high school prospect in the country in 2006. After being promoted from Single-A Williamsport to Double-A Reading in June, Drabek’s domination (9-1 overall record, 110 K’s) earned him a bid to the Futures Game. Finally, he was going to be able to showcase ability on a national level, as fellow Phillies prospects Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald have been able to do in years past.

 

Drabek's demeanor is starting to match his talent

As he has done all year, Drabek continued to impress. On Sunday though, it all came together. As the second pitcher for the U.S team, he pitched a 1-2-3 second inning. Baseball fans from around the world were now able to see that his once-cocky attitude has now turned into a quiet confidence, a symbol of the maturation process he has gone through over the past three years. 

Talent has never been an issue for Kyle Drabek. However, now that he has learned to become a good professional athlete and a better man, his “future” is brighter than ever. The only question now is whether that “future” will be with the Phillies or some other team.

Read more about Kyle Drabek’s standout performance at the 2009 Futures Game here.

PHILLIES: “Doc” Halladay to Philly?

The rumors are swirling. Toronto Blue Jays G.M J.P Richardi came out to the media yesterday saying that he is willing to listen to offers for their ace, Cy Young award winning pitcher Roy Halladay. The Phillies, in the market for a right-handed pitcher, obviously have interest in Halladay.

 

Acquiring Roy Halladay may make the Phillies the favorites in the N.L to return to the World Series

 

He is currently a top-5 pitcher in baseball, a category he has been in for the past four years. He is 32 years old, still in his pitching prime, and his 141-68 record is amazing considering he has been pitching in the American League for his entire career. If Halladay is traded to an N.L team, he will provide a impact greater than the C.C Sabathia trade for the Brewers last season, no questions asked.

In fact, it already has been speculated that the Phillies may be the leaders to get Halladay at this point. According to SI’s Jon Heyman, Halladay would only accept a trade to three teams, Philadelphia being one of them. So, deal done right? The Phillies are built to win now, as Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard are all in the middle of the prime of their career, so Ruben Amaro needs to go out and get Halladay to ensure a “win-now” philosophy. Not so fast.

In order to get Halladay via trade, the Phillies will have to give up at least four young, highly-regarded players, similar to what the Milwaukee Brewers traded to get Sabathia last year. One of those prospects, Jason Donald, seems to be a trading chip, as the Blue Jays are in the market for a middle-infield prospect for the future. So, with all the elements that trading for a top-5 pitcher would entail, here is my breakdown of what the Phillies would have to give up to get Halladay. 

(To look a similar breakdown, here is David Murphy’s “High Cheese” column from the Philadelphia Inquirer)

Jason Donald, a top young pitching prospect (Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Yohan Flande), a top young position player (Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson), and a pro-ready prospect (John Mayberry Jr., Andrew Carpenter, Kyle Kendrick, Joe Savery)

A lot of these combinations the Blue Jays wouldn’t take for Halladay, as I’m sure they will need to be blown away with an offer to trade away arguably the most valuable player on a team who is still in a playoff race. To eliminate a couple options, Savery doesn’t have enough value yet to be a piece of a blockbuster trade, Kendrick has lost too much value since losing his spot in the starting rotation a year ago to be a part of a trade to acquire a top-flight starter, and Flande is too raw for the Blue Jays to gamble on him at this point of his career. Also, it will be tough to include more than one of the outfield prospects (Mayberry, Brown, Taylor) in an offer because the Blue Jays already have Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, and Adam Lind. With that said, here are a few combinations that the Blue Jays may have to consider.

1. Donald, Drabek, Marson, Mayberry

2. Donald, Knapp, Marson, Taylor

3. Donald, Brown, Marson, Carrasco

4. Donald, Drabek, Taylor, Carpenter

All these options give the Blue Jays pretty good value for Halladay. Donald is the centerpiece, a middle-infield prospect ranked 4th overall in the Phillies organization. In every combination, the Blue Jays will get four of the top 11 prospects in the Phillies organization. Some my consider this the price the Phillies have to pay to repeat as champions, but I don’t buy that. The Phillies won the World Series last year with Cole Hamels going 13-10 in the regular season, an in-experienced J.A Happ, and an ineffective Kyle Kendrick in the rotation, and an inconsistent Pat Burrell in the lineup instead of an all-star in Raul Ibanez. Also,  Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pedro Feliz have elevated their play to a borderline all-star level this year, giving the Phillies are more potent and consistent lineup than even last year. The Phillies CAN win without Halladay.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the Phillies shouldn’t go out and get Halladay. As I said before, he is a top-5 pitcher in baseball, and will most certainly vault the Phillies towards the top of the National League. But is trading the entire front-end of a farm system worth it? Is sacrificing ten years in the future for one year worth it? It may be, if the Phillies can get Halladay, who will be a huge demand on the the payroll (due $15.75 million), for the right price.