PHILLIES: Who’s In and Who’s Out

With the start of the winter meetings getting underway in the fine city of Indianapolis, the most interesting topic of discussion is where premiere talents such as Roy Halladay, Jason Bay, Matt Holiday, Jon Lackey will end up either via trade or free agency. However, for the Philadelphia Phillies, they didn’t need a hour and 15 minute flight to Indy to get started on putting the possible pieces of the puzzle together that will help bring a World Series parade back to Broad St. 

WHO’S IN

2B/3B Placido Polanco: Phillies fans might recognize this name. Or at least they should. Polanco, a former Phillie who played his last season for the Philadelphia in 2004, was signed to a three-year 18 million dollar deal to replace Pedro Feliz at 3B. While the Phillies will lose a potential gold-golver in Feliz on the hot corner, Polanco is a more than suitable defender (2 gold gloves at 2B for the Tigers), and will give the Phillies more dangerous bat as a perennial .300 hitter who hardly ever strikes out in a lineup that is already potent offensively.

C Brian Schneider: Usually considered a Phillies-killer in his days with the Expos/Nationals and the Mets, Schneider will finally get a chance to play for his hometown team, as the Allentown native grew up a Philadelphia sports fan. Schneider will make around 3 million this year, serving as the primary backup catcher to Carlos Ruiz and the emergency first baseman if both Ryan Howard and Greg Dobbs are unable to play.

OF Dewayne Wise: The player responsible for the arguably the greatest defensive play of the 2009 season (saving Mark Buehrle’s perfect game with a home-run robbing catch) was signed to a minor league contract by the Phillies on December 1st. Wise will report to spring training as a possible fifth outfielder option on the opening day roster, behind the three all-stars (Werth, Victorino, Ibanez) and Ben Francisco on the depth chart.

 UTIL Juan Castro: Another player signed to a minor league deal. Castro will be given ever opportunity in spring training to beat out incumbent UTIL player Eric Bruntlett for a spot on the opening day roster. If he can’t manage that, then shame on him.

WHO’S OUT

3B Pedro Feliz: A sad end to a solid two years with the Phillies for Feliz. Always solid defensively, Feliz hit over .300 with runners in scoring position out of the 7th spot in the order when he was with the Phillies. The only other player to do that for the Philadelphia over those two-seasons was Ryan Howard. That’s pretty elite company. However, the Phillies envisioned Feliz to hit 25-30 HR’s when they signed him before the 2008 season. When he didn’t come close to those power numbers, the organization decided to go a different way with the signing of Polanco. Look out for Feliz finding a home with an AL team who will allow him to play 3B and DH, with Baltimore being the early front-runner as a possible destination. 

 SP/RHP Brett Myers: The tenuous partnership between Myers and the Phillies organization is finally over. Just a week after the Phillies season ended, GM Ruben Amaro made it clear that he would not be renewing Myers’s contract, saying that he wanted to go in a “different direction”. I’ve always been a fan of Myers, but it’s hard to deny that he needs a change of scenery. Myers, even with a clouded injury past, is still projected as a starting pitcher by a handful of teams in baseball. Look for one of those teams, possibly the Texas Rangers, to end up with Myers.

OF Matt Stairs: In case of emergency, use the stairs. If you don’t believe that, just look into your time capsule and turn it back to Game 4 of the 2008 NLCS where Stairs single-handedly saved the Phillies season with a pinch-hit 2-run HR against LA’s Jonathan Broxton that after a year and two months still hasn’t landed yet. While he will always be a hero to Philly sports fans for that sole moment, his career is finished. Sadly, Stairs can no longer catch-up to fastballs that he is used to crushing out of the ballpark, which is unfortunate because Stairs is a dead-red fastball hitter. That’s not a good sign.

C Paul Bako: Another departure due to a free agent singing. Bako performed admirably in his limited role with the Phillies in 2009, but the Schneider signing marked the end of the Paul Bako era in Philadelphia. What a shame..

OTHER POSSIBILITIES 

SP Pedro Martinez= Will the Phillies bring Pedro back after the team was 8-1 in his nine regular season starts during his two-month stint in 2009? My guess is yes.

SP John Smoltz= If the answer to that last question is no, look for Smoltz to be an option to fill the fifth starter role for the Phillies. Age (42) is a question with the future hall-of-famer, but if the Phillies want to give phenom Kyle Drabek one more year in the minors and they don’t view Martinez as an option, look for Smoltz as a possible candidate.

RHP Brandon Lyon= Don’t like this one bit. There’s no question that Lyon has plus-average stuff, but he has struggled mightily the past two seasons both as a closer and a middle reliever with Diamondbacks and the Tigers. It’s not like the Phillies view Lyon as a potential closer, so if they sign him,  his role would be similar to Brett Myers’s during the Phillies 2009 post-season run. I’d personally have Myers.

SP Roy Halladay: A discussion for a different day…

Lastly, I will be present at the final two days of the Winter Meetings, so look for updates to this post.

PHILLIES: One More Win..

The title speaks for itself.

Well, if it doesn’t, I’ll be glad to sum it up for you.

THE PHILLIES ARE ONE WIN AWAY FROM GOING BACK TO THE WORLD SERIES FOR THE SECOND TIME IN AS MANY YEARS.

Did that clear up the confusion?

While the Los Angeles Dodgers were the heavy favorites going into the 2009 NLCS (and rightfully so after a 3-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals), they are now fighting for their playoff lives, starting Wed. night against Cole Hamels and the Phillies.

That’s got to be a tough pill for the Dodgers to swallow, as they are a couple hits and a normal Jonathan Broxton inning away from being up 3-1, rather than being down 3-1 and on the verge of elimination.

Needless to say, this series has been an exciting one so far.

Here are some of the highlights.

: Welcome back Brad Lidge! It took long enough, but after a solid performance in the NLDS, Lidge showed why he was once nicknamed “Lights Out” against the Dodgers. An inning after the Dodgers rocked Ryan Madson and came within two runs of tying the Phillies in the eighth inning of Game 1, Lidge came in and shut down the door (while inheriting two runners on base) on the Phillies opening win of the series. In game 4, with the Phillies down a run, Lidge entered the game with a runner on base and just one out in 9th inning. Not only did he stop a potential big inning for the Dodgers, but struck out both Matt Kemp and Andre Either consecutively in convincing fashion to give the Phillies a chance in the bottom half of the 9th down just one run. Boy, did that make a difference.

:  The fastest pitch that Jimmy Rollins faced this season (98.8 mph) was probably the most memorable pitch he will face all year. That was the speed of the Jonathan Broxton 0-2 inside fastball that Rollins hit into the right-center field gap, scoring both Eric Bruntlett and Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz with two outs to win game 4. Rollins, who is barely hitting over .200 in the 2009 playoffs, is now 4-6 when hitting in the 9th inning in the playoffs, and has scored two game-tying runs along with delivering that magical walkoff in game 4. Clutch.

: For the Phillies, the MVP of this postseason is clear. While Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz have made incredible contributions towards the success of the Phillies in the past eight games, Ryan Howard is in a league of his own. Hitting a scorching .379 in this post-season, Howard is completely locked in, knocking in runs at will out of the cleanup spot. In fact, Howard is now tied with Lou Gehrig and Alex Rodriguez for the all-time record of most consecutive games in the playoffs with a RBI with eight, and is leading the league in post-season RBI’s with 14. To put this into perspective, if this were a normal 162 game season, Howard would be on pace for 283 RBI’s. Talk about stepping up on a big stage.

: With all the talk about the Phillies offense, their pitching has been just as impressive. Cliff Lee’s 0.74 E.R.A in three postseason starts this year screams of dominance, Pedro Martinez’s 7 1/3 inning gem during game 2 was a blast from the past, and the much-maligned Phillies bullpen pitched three innings of one-run ball in game 4 to give the Phillies potent lineup a chance to complete a comeback, a task that they ended up accomplishing. With that said, if the saying is true that pitching wins championships, then the Phillies look to be in good shape..well, at least for a trip back to the Fall Classic.

 

With that said, they will be in better shape if they can win one more game against the Dodgers.

PHILLIES: Phillies-Rockies NLDS Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies are facing off in the Divisional Round of the National League playoffs.

Sound familiar?

Well, that’s because it is. Flashback to 2007, and the Phillies postseason dreams were swept away, literally, by those pesky Rockies in three games. The Rockies, at that time the beneficiaries of one of the hottest September streaks in recent memory, dominated the Phillies in every single aspect of baseball. After torching the Phillies, they rolled right to the World Series, where they finally fell to the better team, which in that specific case was the Boston Red Sox.

Now, two years later, the Rockies are virtually in the same exact position. After playing the best baseball record-wise since the all-star break, the Rockies beat out San Francisco for the wildcard spot in the playoffs, just as they did in 07′ (against the Padres). 

On the other side of this potential exciting NLDS series, the Phillies are a much different team than they were the last time they faced the Rockies in the post-season.

They have the jewelry on their ring finger to prove it.

In 2007, the thrill of one of the biggest comebacks ever to win a division and the energy surrounding the organizations’ first playoff birth in 14 years may have been a bit of a distraction for a young team that was entering the playoffs for the first time.

Now, the group of seasoned veterans that fill the Phillies roster will take the field in October for the third straight year to try to repeat the playoff success they had, with virtually the same group of players, in 2008.

It’s a huge difference.

Here’s the preview (Schedule breakdown, analysis, prediction).

Game 1: 2:37 P.M Wednesday in Philadelphia (Cliff Lee vs. Ubaldo Jimenez)

Game 2: 2:37 P.M Thursday in Philadelphia (Cole Hamels vs. Aaron Cook)

Game 3: 9:37 P.M Saturday in Colorado (Starters TBD)

Game 4 (If Necessary): Sunday in Colorado (Time and Starters TBD)

Game 5 (If Necessary): Tuesday in Philadelphia (Time and Starters TBD)

 

Why the Phillies/Rockies Will Win?

Plain and simple, the Phillies are the more talented, experienced team. Any team that has five all-stars (Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard) and a potential MVP candidate (Howard) should have an advantage against another team from a talent perspective. That’s without bringing up the pitching, which the Phillies having a former World Series MVP (Cole Hamels) and a two different Cy Young award winners (Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez) give them a clear edge over the Rockies, who just have one starting pitcher (Jason Marquis) with more than one year of playoff experience.

From a team vs. team matchup perspective, the Phillies should also have a advantage. The Rockies, who have a plethora of hitters who take their stance from the left side of the plate (Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton especially), will most likely have to face three dominate left-handed pitchers (Lee, Hamels, and Happ) to get through the Phillies. Success, especially offensively, could be a tough task for Colorado, considering the Rockies (especially Helton and Hawpe) have struggled against left-handed pitching. For a top-heavy lineup that has been carried by Hawpe, Helton, and Troy Tulowitzki for the better part of the season, the Rockies can’t afford to have lob-sided matchup for at least the first two games of the series.  That’s a clear contrast from the Phillies, who have arguably have the most depth out of any lineup in the NL (four players with 30+ HR’s, seven with 14+), and have a solid balance of left-handed and right-handed hitters with their starting position players (4 righties, 2 lefties, 2 switch-hitters).

Now, minus the bias, while the Phillies have the talent and the matchup advantage, you still have to look at Colorado as they stand right now. There is a reason this team has gone 74-31 under interim manager Jim Tracy this year. It’s not like they are just a bunch of journeymen players who have reached the prime of their respective careers at the same time. That’s just not the case. They have the combination of a young core of talented young players (Tulowitzki, Jimenez, Dexter Fowler, Houston Street) along with a solid group of productive veterans (Hawpe, Helton, Marquis, Aaron Cook), a nucleus somewhat similar to the 2008 Phillies that won the World Series.

When it comes to October baseball, the team who should win sometimes fails to come out victorious.

That’s the playoffs. 

However, in this NLDS battle, I believe that the more talented, experienced team who usually SHOULD win will end up coming out victorious when all is said and done.

Prediction: Phillies in 4

EXTRA BASES

: Projected Game 2 Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa (16-9 in 2009) was held off the playoff roster due to injury. Aaron Cook will now pitch game 2, while Jason Hammel (Game 3) and Jason Marquis (Game 4) will round out the starting rotation for Colorado.

: The Phillies have yet to release the identity of their intended closer and game 3/4 starters going into the playoffs. Both J.A Happ and Joe Blanton will be in the bullpen for games 1 and 2, keeping manager Charlie Manuel’s options open.

: The NLDS Phillies playoff roster was released, and not without a few surprises. Antonio Bastardo, Kyle Kendrick, and Miguel Cairo were all on the roster. That left Clay Condrey, Tyler Walker, and Eric Bruntlett as the odd men out.

PHILLIES: 2009 NL East Champs

I wanted to wait and write this once the regular season concluded, but the lack of passion the Phillies have showed during their final series of the year against the Marlins has started to give me a warped perception of the Phillies possible playoff success. So, to provide a more positive, honest post, I am writing as the Phillies are on the field playing their regular season finale with Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett and company.

If you didn’t already know before, or forgot to read title of this post, for the third year in a row, the Phillies will represent the NL East in the playoffs as the division champs. 

Wow, what a shocker.

First off, you got to give credit to everyone in the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Three division titles in a row is a pretty big accomplishment, and for that you have to give the Phillies players, coaches, and management a round of applause. This team, with a nucleus of players who are in or are just reaching the prime of their careers (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Victorino, Werth), truly has a chance to become a dynasty with another historic run through October to the Fall Classic.

Secondly, you have to give credit to those who are not directly related to those with the PHILADELPHIA Phillies. Yes, it is minor league affiliateso of the Phillies that I am talking about. After being an employee for one of these teams (Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs) this summer, it is very clear that while these minor league teams don’t nearly get as much publicity as those in the bigs, they are just as responsible for their organizations’ success.

Just look at the Phillies current roster.

Raul Ibanez, Carlos Ruiz, Greg Dobbs, Pedro Martinez, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, Brad Lidge, J.C Romero (out for the season due to injury), Clay Condrey, Scott Eyre, John Mayberry Jr., Paul Hoover,  Miguel Cairo, and Andy Tracy have all spent time in the Phillies minor league system for either rehabilitation purposes, or as an everyday player. The minor league teams set the foundation for an organization, and if the Phillies have any success in October, those involved the Williamsport Crosscutters, Clearwater Threshers, Lakewood Blue Claws, Reading Phillies, and the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs should give themselves a pat on the back.

Lastly, a moment of clarity.

As much as I have analyzed the Phillies flaws in almost every aspect, they have been the class of the NL East since they stepped onto the field as defending World Series champs in April. Despite a couple tenuous weeks when the Braves and Marlins would run off a sequence of games in a row and pull to within a handful of games of the Phillies, it really wasn’t even close. Without the Mets at full health for pretty much the entire season, the Phillies were by far the most talented team in the NL East, and for the most part, they proved it, capping off with their third straight divisional title.

Now, the show must go on.

(A Phillies-Rockies NLDS preview will be posted in the next day or two.)

PHILLIES: Francisco Plays Hero

Out of all people to hit an eventual game-winning homerun for the Phillies in a crucial game versus the Chicago Cubs Tuesday night, I doubt that anyone would have guessed the source of the late-game heroics.

Ryan Howard?

Nope.

Jimmy Rollins?

Well, he hit a game-tying HR earlier in the game, but it wasn’t him.

Chase Utley? Raul Ibanez? Jayson Werth?

While all are good players, and 2009 all-stars for that matter, none were Tuesday’s star of the game. You have to go down the roster to the bench players, where you’ll find a player who is most likely between the portly Matt Stairs and the career-pinch hitter Greg Dobbs on the potential list.

So, Ben Francisco?

DING DING DING!!

 

After Tuesday's late-game heroics, Ben Francisco will be a fan favorite in Philadelphia

If you don’t know the name, you may not be alone. Ben Francisco has not been in a Phillies uniform for long. You might recognize him as the OTHER guy sent to the Phillies in the trade that brought Cliff Lee to Philadelphia. Even though Francisco’s name was looked over by almost ever single Philadelphia fan after they looked away once they saw the name Lee, his contributions have been felt in a big way.

Since sent to Philadelphia two weeks ago, Francisco has fulfilled the role that the Phillies organization had set for him when they pulled him into Charlie Manuel’s office that first day. His ability to play all three outfield positions and hit anywhere from 2nd to 7th in the lineup has given the Phillies the utility outfielder and the strong right-handed hitter off the bench that the organization had been looking for since the start of the 2009 season.

Case and point?

On Tuesday night, Francisco did what neither John Mayberry Jr. nor Eric Bruntlett have been able to do the entire season. He delivered.

While Francisco’s solo homerun in the top of the 12th inning barely cleared the ivy on the left field fence in Wrigley, he got enough Kevin Gregg’s hanging breaking ball to hit his second long-ball in a Phillies uniform. More important than the “HR” number in his personal statistics, Francisco’s solo shot was the eventual game winning-run that snapped the Phillies 3-game losing streak.

During last year’s historic World Series run for the Phillies, it’s undeniable that the contributions from the players who usually resided on the bench were major reasons why the Phillies were able to parade down Broad St. with some jewelry when all was said and done.

You want proof?

Remember Matt Stairs’s homerun of Jonathan Broxton that finished off a comeback of the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the 2008 NLCS?

Definitely.

Remember Geoff Jenkins’s leadoff double in the 7th inning when Game 5 of the 2008 World Series resumed after a 46-hour weather delay?

Probably.

Remember So Taguchi game-tying two-run double to cap off a six-run ninth against the New York Mets?

Eh, that’s questionable. I’m almost positive fellow Philly Phour writer Josh Getzoff does.

The point of this wasn’t just for a trip down memory lane. These three scenes from the Phillies 2008 perfect story just prove that bench players can play the role of hero as well.

Just like Ben Francisco did Tuesday night with his 12th inning game-winning HR against the Cubs.

PHILLIES: Trade Deadline Options

As I write this, it is Monday, July 27th. On Saturday morning at 12:01, August 1st, as it has been for every year in the past two decades, the trade deadline will have been completed. For people who have minimum math skills, that means in less than five days, the public will know if Roy Halladay, or anybody else for that matter, will be added to the Phillies roster via trade. If J.P Richardi’s inclination after the Blue Jays rejected the Phillies offer on Sunday is correct, and Halladay is not dealt, here are some other players who could see themselves heading to Philadelphia.

Plan B?

Cleveland Indians SP Cliff Lee: The Phillies “Plan B” if a trade for Halladay doesn’t work out. Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner, has pitched very well this year even though his 7-9 record doesn’t show it. While his record is under .500, his 3.14 E.R.A has proved that he still has the stuff that made him the ace of the Indians staff last year. In contrast to Halladay, he’s a much cheaper option (only due just over 4 million next year), and would be more willing to sign a long term deal with the Phillies. Unlike his current team the Indians, the Phillies are a contender to go to the playoffs every year with guys like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard a lock to play behind Lee for the next three years if he is headed to Philadelphia. While the Phillies would probably still have to give up a lot for Lee (my prediction is J.A Happ, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Donald), this trade would allow the Phillies to keep their top two prospects, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown.

Seattle Mariners SP Jarrod Washburn: A once-ace for the Angels in the early part of the decade, Washburn has resurrected his career this season with the Seattle Mariners. Just one year removed from going 5-14 and contemplating retirement, Washburn is 8-6 with an impressive 2.71 E.R.A this season with Seattle, and has overtaken Eric Bedard (someone the Phillies were interested in before he went on the D.L last week) as the second-best pitcher on the Mariners starting rotation, making a potent 1-2 punch with ace Felix Hernandez. While Washburn has been impressive this season, his age (35 in August) will make unlikely that he is dealt to Philadelphia for a couple of young prospects (Happ, Drabek, Carrasco ect.). But hey, crazier things have happened.

Pittsburgh Pirates SP Zach Duke: We all know how Pittsburgh loves trading away talent. The Pirates have dealt basically their entire core, including players Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Najer Morgan, and Adam LaRoche in deals during the past year, so I would not be surprised if they trade 2B Freddy Sanchez or Duke by July 31st. The Phillies would be a good destination for Duke, considering that it was Phillies manager Charlie Manuel who selected Duke to his first all-star game this season. Duke is still young (26 years of age), and it obviously wouldn’t take as much to acquire him as it would for Halladay or Lee. With that said, I wouldn’t give up Happ for him, and if the Phillies did acquire him for a couple mid-high level prospects, I doubt the Phillies would be able to make room for him in the starting rotation.

Arizona Diamondbacks RP Chad Qualls: The Phillies bullpen has taken a mighty hit over the past couple days, as three relief pitchers have been sent to the disabled list. However, even before that, the Phillies reportedly had interest for Qualls. Most of the trade rumors have said the Phillies are mostly in the market for starting pitching, but with recent injury concerns of J.C Romero, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin, the hard-throwing righty Qualls will certainly garner some attention from the Phillies branch.

Washington Nationals OF Josh Willingham: In the off-season, when the Phillies were in the running to sign then free-agent OF Gary Sheffield, a big fuss was made about how the Phillies need a solid right-handed bat off the bench. Well, three months into the season, the Phillies still have that problem. Eric Bruntlett may be one of the worst hitters in baseball when it comes to position players (.128 BA) and John Mayberry Jr. has looked quite overmatched at times in the past month in his first stint against big league pitching. Willingham is having a pretty solid offensive season (.291 BA, 14 HR), even though hasn’t been a full-time starter all year, but has expressed his desire to play for a contender, something the Nationals obviously aren’t. Earlier this week, some reports were saying that the Nationals were interested in sending Willingham to Philadelphia for the much maligned Kyle Kendrick, but as of right now, it seems that the Phillies will need to give up a little more than that for a guy who his on pace for 25 HR’s.

 

Of course, other names could come up within the next 72 hours or so, but these are the players who have been targeted by the Phillies.

More to come over the next couple days as the trade deadline comes closer.