PHILLIES: A Preview Before the Preview

As pitchers and catchers have made their way down to Clearwater and the friendly confines of Brighthouse Field, most who care about such a movement would also take that as a sign that the 2011 baseball season is finally starting to take form.

From the perspective of a certain baseball enthusiast/blogger, there isn’t much in the way of news that could be considered more of a breath of fresh air.

In fact, that could probably the best news in, give or take, three months and 13 days.

For those who are wondering and are too lazy to do some simple math or a google search, that was when the 2010 Baseball campaign officially ended as the San Francisco Giants were crowned as World Series champs.

With that said, a Spring Training preview will be up shortly, breaking down everything from..

Beautiful sight, isn't it?

1. Is Joe Blanton going to remain in the fold as the Phillies 5th starter behind R2C2?

2. Will Dominic Brown be able to beat out Ben Francisco and John Mayberry Jr. for the everyday RF job?

3. How will the bullpen shape up without Chad Durbin?

4. Expectations, expectations, and more expectations..

5. Everything else.

Such a breakdown, however, will all come over the span of some six odd weeks before the Phillies take the field against the Houston Astros on April 1st.

In the mean time, if you want to take a look at a couple blogs that will have Spring Training coverage to a capacity much larger than this particular college senior who is roughly 700 miles from any Grapefruit League action whatsoever, a combination of Todd Zolecki’s “ZoZone“, David Murphy’s “High Cheese“, and Matt Gelb and Bob Brookover’s “Phillies Zone” should do the trick.

With that, enjoy the arrival of baseball season.

PHILLIES: Draft Drama

For those who don’t know, the Major League Baseball draft starts tonight.

With that said, WHEN Bryce Harper is selected as the #1 overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, that will start the trickle down effect of the 50 round selection process, deciding the fate of over 2,000 baseball prospects who have entered their names into the draft.

Needless to say, from a sport vs. sport perspective, the next three days will be much different then you will see in the NBA draft process (2 rounds), or even the NFL draft process (7 rounds).

For the Phillies, their first selection will be in the first round, in which they hold the rights to the 27th overall pick. Since it’s virtually impossible to do a mock draft with the amount of potential prospects and the added element of actually signing them, at this point of the process, the best way do a “draft breakdown” is to break down their past draft success, and some of the areas of need for the organization.

First of all, if you look at the Phillies roster, you will see that a good number of the guys that compile the 25-man and even the 40-man roster are homegrown, meaning they were drafted by Philadelphia. Considering the Phillies have won three straight NL East titles and have gone to the past two World Series while primarily the same nucleus of players, that’s a testament to the members of the Philadelphia organization, and most importantly, their scouting department.

Here are some of the notable players that the Phillies have drafted and kept within the organization in previous years.

One of the many members of the Phillies farm system to make a splash in Philly

1996: Jimmy Rollins (2nd round)

1998: Ryan Madson (9th round)

2000: Chase Utley (1st round)

2001: Ryan Howard (5th round)

2002: Cole Hamels (1st round)

2003: Kyle Kendrick (7th round)

2006: Dominic Brown (The Phillies current top prospect was drafted in the 20th round)

Looking at the the list, which includes two MVP’s (Rollins, Howard), a perennial MVP candidate (Utley), a potential ace (Hamels), and a potential five-tool outfielder (Brown), that’s a pretty impressive job done by the Phillies front office.

They will have their hands full this year though, as their are really two areas of the Phillies farm system that should and could be addressed in the first round.

Catcher: The departures of Jason Jaramillo, Lou Marson, and Travis D’Arnaud in the last two years via trades have left the Phillies without a premiere, young catching prospect who is near big league ready. From a talent perspective, the only one who right now projects as a future major leaguer is Sebastian Valle, who at 19 years of age, is still at least two or three years away from making a contribution at the big league level. Other than Valle, the Phillies do not have much of an emphasis on “future” when it comes to the catching position (no offense to guys like Paul Hoover or Kevin Nelson).

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: JR Yasmani Grandal (University of Miami), SR Mike Kvasnicka (University of Minnesota), Kellin Deglan (Canada), Justin O’Connor (HS)

Pitcher: There is always a need for pitching, especially if the talent is there on the board when you are selection. For the Phillies though, it’s also a need. A year removed from trading away their there top pitching prospects in Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Knapp in deals to obtain Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay,  the jury is still out in regards to the pitchers within the Phillies minor league system. Top pitching prospect Phillipe Aumont was just demoted from Double-A Reading for his struggles, and both Drew Carpenter and Joe Savery (1st round pick in 2007) haven’t quite lived up to their billing as future contributors for Philadelphia. When it comes to this years draft, if there is a year to take a chance on a pitcher, it’s in 2010, as two pitchers with local ties are slated to be selected in the back end of the first round. Both Jesse Biddle (Germantown Friends School HS Senior), and Cam Bedrosian (son of former Phillies pitcher Steve Bedrosian) have risen up draft boards in the last few weeks, and it likely that at least one of them will still be there when the 27th selection in the first round rolls along.

POTENTIAL PROSPECTS: Biddle (Projected Pick), Bedrosian, JR Drew Pomeranz (University of Mississippi)

Other: The Phillies have everyone in their starting infield locked up until at least 2012, and they have spent their last two of their last three top picks (Kelly Dugan and Anthony Hewitt) on infielders. With that said, I don’t see them addressing needs within the infield in the first round. In terms of outfielders, a lot relies on how the Phillies negotiations are going with signing Jayson Werth to a long-term deal. The Phillies still have their top prospect in Brown along with John Mayberry Jr. buried on the outfield depth chart below Werth, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez, and have a few others, including two speedsters in Quentin Berry and Anthony Gose, who have the potential to make a big league impact in a couple years. However, if a couple of the premiere OF prospects in this years draft end up falling to the bottom half of round one, such as HS senior Austin Wilson, things could get a little interesting.

Projection: Biddle or Bedrosian (whoever is still on the board or they think they have a better chance to sign). If that isn’t possible, then their highest ranked catcher still on the board should be the pick. If Wilson drops all the way to 27 though, his talent may be too much to pass up.

Should be a fun couple days..

PHILLIES: Lidge Back to the D.L, J-Roll Returns?

Overshadowed by the Flyers making history in their series over the Boston Bruins, the Phillies have been playing some pretty good baseball over the time span that the Orange and Black became the third team in NHL history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit.

With a 22-13 overall record, the Phillies are a season-best nine games over .500, and have a three game lead in the NL East over the surprising Washington Nationals. While the second team in that equation is a surprising to say the least, I can’t say the Phillies status as being at the top of the pact is. Since May 30th of last season, there have only been three days that the Phillies have not been at the top of the divisional standings during the regular season.

Talk about dominance.

However, not all is well when it comes to the team that is about to return to Citizens Bank Park on Monday for a seven-game homestand.

From Jimmy Rollins to J.A Happ, the Phillies have been decimated with injuries this season often to say the least. On Saturday though, the Phillies injury bug reached new heights, as the organization made the move to send there first player in the 2010 season to make a return stint to the DL. After being out of action for five days because of what the Phillies would call “elbow discomfort”,  much maligned closer Brad Lidge was placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to his last appearance on May 10th, his second trip to the disabled list in as many months.

A return to the DL has become a reality for "Lights Out" Lidge

Tough break for big Brad. Since his return from off-season elbow surgery at the end of April, Lidge was pretty effective in his four appearances this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and one save.  Most importantly though, with his increased velocity, he looked more like the Brad Lidge of 2008 than the Brad Lidge of 2009. While that was great to see, this disabled list stint will obviously stunt the confidence growth that Lidge was gaining in every single appearance, which is obviously not a good sign considering “confidence” is integral to the success of most closers in professional baseball. Just ask Byung-Hyun Kim (yes, I know, that is a name from the past).

With this newest obstacle to overcome, the Phillies are in the process of shuffling around the bullpen once again. Lidge will join fellow closer candidate Ryan Madson on the disabled list, leaving set-up man and former starter Jose Contreras as player most likely to finish out games for the Phillies. As Contreras will move into the closer role (has filled that role the last three games), Danys Baez will serve as the 8th inning man, and Chad Durbin will serve as the primary long reliever. To fill the roster spot left by Lidge, Phillies brought up Antonio Bastardo from Triple-A Lehigh Valley, who has actually has sub 2.00 ERA (1.69) in 13 appearances with Philadelphia this season. If Contreras fails, or Lidge ends up on the DL for more than 15 days, look for the Phillies to also to bring up Scott Mathieson from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Mathieson, a former big leaguer who seems to have fully recovered from two Tommy John surgeries, is a perfect 5 for 5 in save opportunities (Pigs haven’t been in many situations for Mathieson to close out games lately) this season with a stunning 0.54 ERA.

While Mathieson may be big league ready, lets hope it doesn’t get far enough where he has to prove that just yet.

OTHER NOTES

: Jimmy Rollins may be back in a Phillies uniform before the conclusion of this coming homestand, which ends May 23rd. Huge boost to the offense clearly. However,  if Shane Victorino keeps on hitting like this out of the leadoff spot ( .318, 3 HR, 10 RBI’s in the last 10 games), could the Phillies possibly place Rollins somewhere else in the order when he comes back?

: Speaking of Shane Victorino, who would of thought that on May 16th, he would lead the Phillies in RBI’s and would be second on the team in HR’s? Crazy.

:  Looks like #1 Phillies prospect Dominic Brown is starting to come alive. 6 HR’s in 11 games. That’s going to generate some buzz, especially around July 31st (MLB Trade Deadline).

: Former Phillies fan favorite (for some) Pat Burrell was designated for assignment by the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday.  How the mighty have fallen..

For a guy who averaged 30 HR’s for his last four seasons in Philadelphia, he’s really struggling at the plate (.202 BA with the Rays this year). . However, for a figure around league minimum,  I’d sign him to sit on the Phillies bench. Even though he wouldn’t do much for the team at the plate or in the field ( Pat the Bat if you remember was never known for his fielding), bringing him back to the City of Brotherly Love would for sure make a so-far tame season for the Phillies a little bit more exciting for a variety of reasons.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

UPDATED (Sunday 11:07 PM)

Looks like Jimmy Rollins has a new clean bill of health, or will shortly. The former MVP and Phillies starting SS is heading back to Philadelphia Sunday night after his rehab stint with Single-A Clearwater was deemed complete. While he may not be activated for the start of the 7-game homestand (Monday against the Pirates), it looks like J-Roll’s return to the club will be sooner rather than later. If Rollins is not activated right away, a likely possibility is him making one more rehab appearance in Lehigh Valley (their homestand starts Tuesday), and if that goes well, J-Roll’s return to Citizens Bank Park will be on Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs. If he is activated right away, I am assuming he will pick up right where he left off, playing SS and hitting leadoff when the Phillies take the field on Monday, even though Shane Victorino has been hitting at a torrid pace out of the leadoff spot lately (look at the stats above).

Call me crazy, but I would say there is a 50/50 shot right now J-Roll plays on Monday. I am no betting expert, but I just thought I’d throw it out there..

For more news on J-Roll, read David Murphy’s “High Cheese” blog.

PHILLIES: Howard for Pujols Swap, Final Roster Thoughts, Countdown

IT’S OFFICIAL!

The Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols swap that Buster Olney reported last week is..never going to happen.

This is not a personal attack on Olney’s reporting skills, because I’m sure he was correct by saying it was talked about in the Phillies clubhouse, because I’m sure it was. However, the concept, or dream for that matter, of obtaining the best player in baseball (Pujols) is something that undeniably comes up in every clubhouse, the Phillies not being any different.

On the surface, it may make sense. Ryan Howard, a two-time MLB All-Star in the prime of his career returns to his hometown of St. Louis as part of a trade that sends the player who may go down as the best player in Major League Baseball history packing for the City of Brotherly Love.

Wow, would that make some headlines or what!

A Pujols for Howard swap is unlikely to say the least.

In all seriousness though, the possibility that this deal may happen before both players become free agents at the end of the 2011 season  is just as likely as the Washington Nationals winning a World Series by that time. While the Phillies seem like the perfect trade partner, due to the fact that they have more money than the Cardinals to satisfy Pujols’s demands of his next contract (should be the largest in MLB history) along with having Howard on their roster, who would possibly take a hometown discount for his next contract to play in his hometown for the rest of his career, it’s just to complicated of a deal to actually have a chance to go down.

Here’s the case that I am making against this deal for the Phillies..

First of all, the deal has flawed logistics on both sides. As it stands right now, Ryan Howard is making more money than Albert Pujols. Crazy, I know. I’m sure that won’t be the case come 2011, but for the Cardinals to think that they can’t afford Pujols but CAN afford Howard is extremely far-fetched, hometown discount and all.

Minus the financial hoopla, for the Phillies, the main question is why. Why would they make this deal? Sure, the allure of having the best player of baseball on both sides of the diamond is tempting to say the least, but this deal would surely have the capability to disrupt the chemistry of a team who has already gone to the last two Fall Classics, without Pujols.

Lastly, let it be known that Ryan Howard is not just a role player that you can replace. Yes, the critics say that he  may strike out an inordinate amount, or make an error in the field that leaves you dumbfounded at times, and to that they are right. But, to them, I say this.  At the end of the day, when the schedule reads “Game 162″,  Howard’s 40+ HR’s and 120+ RBI’s have been among the leagues best every year since he became a full-time starter in 2005. Along with his production, his presence both on field and in the community and strong chemistry with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and company has been vital to allowing the Phillies to reach the status of a potential dynasty.

You can’t expect anything more out of your cleanup hitter.

SURPRISE, SURPRISE

The Phillies are a little over a week from solidifying there 25-player roster to start off the season, and pretty much everything is working out the way it should. Minus the decision on the final spot in the starting rotation, everybody’s position on the team is pretty much set in stone. For everyone who thought that Dominic Brown had a shot to make the opening day roster, I think his demotion to the minors after a 2 HR performance earlier this week shows that those within the organization feel that their 20 year-old #1 overall prospect needs a bit more seasoning.

Herndon will mostly likely be the most surprising addition to the Phillies 25-man roster

While Brown’s demotion made the headlines, the real surprise of this projected list was not who was left off the roster, but who will most likely be on it.

If you didn’t know who David Herndon was at the start of this month, I wouldn’t have blamed you. The Rule 5 pick and 2006 5th round pick of the Los Angeles Angels, who most people inside baseball circles will tell you did not figure into the Phillies plans at the start of spring training, has pitched himself into a envious position, as he will most likely make the opening day roster as a situational reliever in the bullpen. While his stay in the big leagues may be shortlived, as Brad Lidge and J.C Romero are due to come back from their injuries around the time of opening day, Herndon will most for all intents and purposes join the loser of the Kyle Kendrick/Jamie Moyer battle for the 5th starter’s spot, Jose Contreras, Chad Durbin, Antonio Bastardo, Danys Baez, and Ryan Madson in the bullpen for at least the start of the season.

THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS

12 Days until Opening Day..

PHILLIES: Week One Spring Training Recap

We are almost a month away from Opening Day, and already, just a week into Grapefruit and Cactus League play, there are some rumblings coming from Clearwater that may have an impact when looking at the Phillies 25-man roster when they march into Washington to start off the 2010 campaign. Here are three things that can be taken from the opening week of Spring Training.

1. Kendrick vs. Moyer

Can Kendrick's Spring Training performance be the deciding factor on the final spot in the starting rotation?

This may not be the Battle of Gettysburg or anything, but this battle for the fifth and final spot in the starting rotation has arguably the main daily headline coming out of Phillies’ camp so far this Spring Training. On one side you have a 47-year old ageless wonder with 250+ wins and a professional baseball resume that dates back to before all four writers of The Philly Phour were born. Crazy, I know. On the other side, you have a ex-rookie phenom, who with a new and improved arsenal of pitches, could in fact be entering the twilight of his career at the age of 25, something you certainly can’t say for the first candidate. With that said, while Moyer’s body of work certainly makes him the favorite to retain this position that he held for much of the 2009 season, in this first week of Spring Training action, Kendrick has elevated the level of competition in this battle. As an obvious beneficiary of 2 months of training with Roy Halladay, Kendrick’s 5 scoreless innings of work less far has not only generated a certain around Brighthouse Field, but has left little margin for error for Moyer, who is slated to pitch his second “B” game tomorrow while still recovering from off-season groin surgery. I know many are expecting the man making a cool 8 million a year (Moyer) to prevail, but look for this battle to develop into a full-fledged war in the next two weeks, especially if Kendrick’s dominant performance continues.

2. The Prodigal Son

If somebody would have asked any baseball insider to name the player who would lead the Phillies in BA, hits, total bases, and outfield assists at this point of Spring Training, I doubt that Dominic Brown would be mentioned before the likes of Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, and Jayson Werth, but when you look at the 2010 Phillies Spring Training stat sheet, the Phillies #1 overall prospect stands alone on top. Brown, who at the age of 20 is far from a finished product, has been reckoned to the likes of 5-tool players of the past such as Daryl Strawberry (without the drug use), making him a top-20 prospect in all of baseball. Brown undoubtably has some expectations to live up, since the Phillies decided to choose him over former top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek when trading for Roy Halladay, and may not get a chance to live up to them this season sitting behind three 2009 all-stars on the depth chart. However, if this prodigal son of the Phillies’ organization continues to play at such a high level, a 2010 big-league debut may become a reality, especially if Shane Victorino’s current injury woes continue and the 38-year old body of Raul Ibanez decides to shut down like it did during the second half of last season.

3. Roy Halladay

In a year-long process that ended up sending seven top prospects and the savior of the 2009 playoffs to new destinations, the Phillies finally got the man the wanted in their clubhouse. This same man, in reality, holds the fate of the organizations success for the next five years in his hands (right hand to be precise). Talk about pressure. For Roy Halladay though, who went through the first of many tests as the newest ace of the Phillies this week, the results were promising. Not surprising, I know, Halladay has done that for much of his career, but this test was a little different. In Toronto, he was dealing the with the equivalent of multiple choice questions. In this context, starting in Clearwater, he moved onto essays and short answers, and by throwing two scoreless innings in his first outing and receiving praise from all those around the organization, Halladay could be primary author to the storybook script of the Phillies season when all is said and done.

Other News and Notes:

: J.C Romero, while on schedule, will most likely miss the first two weeks of the season while recovering from off-season surgery.

: Shane Victorino’s shoulder is still being monitored, meaning his playing time will vary for the next week or so. According to all reports, this is nothing more than a precautionary measure, and the Flyin’ Hawaiian will be more than ready for Opening Day.

: While Halladay, Kendrick, and Cole Hamels have all been considered bright spots in camp when it comes to pitching, Joe Blanton and Jose Contreras both struggled in their Spring Training debuts, giving up 9 earned runs combined in just 5.2 innings of work. This is more concerning for Contreras, who should take up a great role in the bullpen, especially in the beginning of the season with the health of Brad Lidge and J.C Romero in question.

PHILLIES: The “Halladay” Season

While it has not been finalized yet after being announced just less than 48 hours ago, the deal that has been rumored to go down for the past half a year is actually about to happen.

The deal that I am talking about is something involving the Philadelphia Phillies and them dealing for a former Cy Young Pitcher by the name of Roy Halladay.

Ring any bells?

If it doesn’t, go into the Philly Phour archives and read over ever single post I wrote in the month of July, and then it will refresh your memory.

So, the trade that was destined to take place is actually doing so. Now, I hate writing about posts about issues that are not finalized, but even if one of the players fails a physical (which is rumored to have happened), this trade is going to happen. So with that said, here is what the final trade details look like involving not three, but four teams (opinions to follow).

Philadelphia gets: Halladay, three Seattle Mariners prospects (Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Juan Ramirez), and six-million dollars in cash from Toronto

Toronto gets: Two Phillies prospects (Kyle Drabek and Travis D’arnaud) and Athletics top prospect Brett Wallace

Oakland gets: Phillies prospect Michael Taylor

Seattle gets: Cliff Lee

With all the details out there on the table, here’s my general opinion on the deal, in which my feelings have ranged from excited to bittersweet over the past two days.

THE GOOD

 

The Phillies now have arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last five years

By getting Halladay, and signing him to an three-year extension (with a possible 4th and 5th year option), the Phillies window of opportunity for another World Series title has been opened for another five seasons. As a current Phillies fan, you have to be happy about having a top 3-5 pitcher in all of baseball for the next few years as players like Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard are entering the prime of their own respective careers. With Halladay, those mentioned above, and guys such as Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies will be in contention for a championship every year for the next half a decade. There is no question about that. 

There’s no doubt that the Phillies gave up alot in this deal, but they didn’t just get Halladay in this trade. All three of the prospects the Phillies got from Seattle were highly-regarded (all top 10 in the organization). With Aumont, the Phillies get a pitcher who was former first-round pick in 2007 (same year and round as Drabek) and was the 33rd ranked prospect in all of baseball at the start of the 2009 season. Needless to say, the kid is good, so before you start sending Ruben Amaro Jr. hate letters for dealing Kyle Drabek, take a look at Aumont.

Also in the deal, the Phillies got an outfielder in Tyson Gillies and a pitcher in Juan Ramirez. With Ramirez, the Phillies are getting a guy with a high-ceiling, but still has plenty of room to grow (very similar to Jason Knapp who the Phillies dealt for Cliff Lee). Gillies, who is comparable to Taylor in terms of worth for their respective organizations, was ranked anywhere from 4th the 6th out of all the Mariners prospects, and was the 2nd-ranked outfielder in the organization. In comparison to that, Taylor was ranked anywhere from being the 3rd to the 6th best Phillies prospect, and was regarded as the 2nd best outfield prospect in the organization. While Taylor definitely has the super-star potential that Gillies may not have, he was expendable due to the fact the Phillies have a better outfield prospect in Dominic Brown waiting in the wings behind the three all-stars (Werth, Victorino, Ibanez) that currently patrol the Phillies outfield.

With that said, for those who are claiming that the Phillies traded away their entire future for just 3-5 years of Roy Halladay, think again. Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez will make an impact on the Phillies organization in both the Minor and Major League level of baseball. Mark my words.

THE BAD

Parting ways with Lee, Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud makes the Phillies look like they are dumping their future for the present. In a sense, they are right. Truth be told, I do question the Phillies virtually trading off Lee for Halladay. Based on track record, there is no doubt that Halladay is the better pitcher, but there will come a time that all the innings pitched by Halladay will start to take a toll on his body.  I sure hope that time comes later rather than sooner, or this deal will be best described as the demise of the Philadelphia Phillies. 

I know a primary reason on why the Phillies in a sense chose Halladay over Lee was because of the ability to sign Halladay to a long-term extension. Each player had a different mentality. Halladay wanted to sign a long-term deal with a contender (Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels) and Lee, with one more year with the Phillies, wanted to test the open market. The smart decision was to sign Halladay in fear that a year down the road Lee would spurn the Phillies for an absurd offer from the Yankees or Red Sox, and they followed that trail. 

Understandable.

However, the way the city of Philadelphia embraced Lee, especially during the playoff run, can’t be ignored. The Phillies fans loved Lee, and Lee loved Philadelphia, and for good reason. The Phillies gave Lee his best chance to win a World Series in his career, and Lee’s performance (and Chase Utley’s) almost got them past the Yankees to that point. Undoubtably, Lee was spectacular in his term with the Phillies, especially during the playoffs,  which something you can’t say about Halladay, because quite frankly, he’s never been to the playoffs before. 

It’s not just about dealing Lee in this trade. While I’m a little sad to see a possible future ace in Drabek and a potential all-star corner outfielder in Taylor go, I understand, because the Phillies did get two prospects back that have the potential to fill those same roles in the organization. I am though a little skeptical of the Phillies trading Travis D’arnaud. Now, I usually wouldn’t question an organization dealing a player who was in single-A for the majority of the season, but with Philadelphia it’s a little different. In the Cliff Lee deal, the Phillies dealt their top catching prospect, Lou Marson, to the Indians. Combine that with dealing D’arnaud in this trade, it leaves 19-year old Sebastian Valle as the top catching “prospect” in the organization, who is still a good four years away from contributing at the big league level. 

In any event, the need to deal for a relatively young catcher in the coming weeks is very clear, as Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schneider, and Paul Hoover are all on the wrong side of 30 and have limited value when it comes to the future of the Philadelphia Phillies. 

VERDICT

Essentially, the Phillies traded seven of their top-15 prospects (Drabek, Taylor, D’Arnaud, Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, and Jason Donald) over the last six months for Roy Halladay and three other prospects. Just seeing that on paper, I’d still do it.

However, the process is very simple. In the next 3-5 years, or as long as Roy Halladay is with the Phillies, two things need to happen for the trade to be justified.

1. Roy Halladay has to win a Cy Young as member of the Phillies.

2. The Phillies have to win a World Series in that time span.

Of course, one of those two things can also satisfy some critics, but overall, by trading players that were once deemed “untouchable”, Ruben Amaro Jr. is implying that the Phillies future is now.

One final thing.

Roy Halladay, I hope you are ready. Philadelphia is a tad different than Toronto. 

This post will be updated once the trade goes final. 

PHILLIES: The Newest Phil-”lee”

Just 24 hours ago, Phillies fans like myself still thought that Roy Halladay was going to be on his way to Philadelphia at the end of the trade deadline. Now, the only time he will be coming to the City of Brotherly Love is as a visitor or if he secures a spot in the opposing teams’ dugout.

Welcome Cliff Lee. A deal that basically was developed, executed, and finalized before you can clap you hands now will most likely be the trade that defines the 2009 Trade Deadline. Headlines will read “2008 AL Cy Young going to the reigning World Champs.”

Wow, does that sound great.

Or does it?

Here is the good, the bad, and the truth in the biggest trade for the Philadelphia Phillies since they acquired Freddy Garcia (and you know how that turned out).

The Good:

Just look at this trade on the surface. Cliff Lee (2008 AL Cy Young Award winner) and OF Ben Francisco traded to the Phillies for four minor league prospects. Wow. The Phillies got starting pitching help in an ace and the right-handed bat off the bench they’ve been searching for all year without giving up one person from the big league roster that is 18 games above .500 and has a seven-game lead in the NL East. Not only that, the Phillies didn’t even give up any of their three “untouchables”, as Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor are all still members of the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Even J.A Happ, a potential rookie of the year candidate in the NL for the Phillies, was left out of the deal and is, for right now, staying in Philly. That’s a luxury they certainly wouldn’t have had if Roy Halladay were to make his home at Citizens Bank Park. Speaking of Halladay, it’s quite possible that for the Phillies, Lee may have been a better option all together than “Doc”. Lee is younger (30) than Halladay (32), cheaper (5 million a year in contrast to Halladay’s 15.75 million), and demanded far less value than Halladay would (Toronto wanted J.A Happ, Drabek and Brown in return). Even with acquiring Lee over the better overall pitcher in Halladay, the Phillies pitching staff is now certainly better, and is as deep as ever.  A Cole Hamels/Cliff Lee one-two punch combined with Joe Blanton, Happ, Jamie Moyer, and Pedro Martinez finishing out the back end of the rotation will provide the star-power and consistency to be the among the best rotations in the baseball. Add that with the best offense in baseball, and there is no reason that the Phillies shouldn’t be the favorite to represent the NL in the World Series for the second season in a row.

The Bad:

(Note, this is me playing devil’s advocate)

Here is where my pessimistic Philadelphia sports attitude sets in. If the Phillies attitude is to win now, which they showed by traded four highly regarded prospects, why didn’t they just go for the touchdown pass with Roy Halladay instead of going for the field goal in Cliff Lee. Lee’s 22-3 season last year could simply be a case of a “one-year wonder”, as he is below .500 with a 7-9 record this year. For Halladay, who is widely regarded as one of the top-3 best pitchers in the league, and may go down as one of the best pitcher of our generation, Toronto was asking for J.A Happ, the Phillies top overall prospect in Dominic Brown, and the so-called pitching phenom Kyle Drabek. Instead Phillies gave up four prospects for Lee, with fellow pitcher Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and Jason Donald all ranked as higher prospects than Drabek by Baseball America. Combine that with the loss of 18 year-old flamethrower Jason Knapp (who scouts have compared to Jonathan Papelbon), the Phillies just dealt four players who were thought as the future of the Philadelphia baseball. If last year was just a fluke, and Lee continues his sub .500 performance of this year and basically every other year until his contract with Philadelphia ends in 2010, not only would that close the window of opportunity to bring another World Series parade down Broad Street, but the loss of these integral parts of the organization could set back the Phillies for five year, maybe longer.

The Truth:

For GM Ruben Amaro, this was the perfect trade to make. Lee will obviously solidify the rotation and strike fear in basically every NL team who could face the Phillies in a game, let alone a playoff series. On the other hand, Ben Francisco was a huge part of why the deal is a winner for the Phillies. Francisco provides a right-handed bat off the bench with power (10 HR) and versatility (can play both corner outfield positions), and will allow John Mayberry Jr. some more time to grow as an everyday player at a lower level, as he will most likely be optioned back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Francisco’s power from the right side of the plate, combined with Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs from the left side of the plate, gives the Phillies offensive flexibility, as if they needed it.

 

Acquiring Cliff Lee gives the Phillies an "ace" in the starting rotation

While the Phillies did get Cliff Lee, they did in fact give up a lot. Donald, the organizations third ranked prospect, and Marson, the organizations fourth ranked prospect, talent and maturity-wise are ready to play for Indians big league team right now. Also, both are projected to be above-average MLB players for ten years. Knapp had the highest ceiling of any Phillies prospect (more than Brown, Taylor or Drabek), and still has so much room to grow as a teenager. Carrasco, the wildcard in this, is still considered a top of the rotation starter by the Indians after struggling this season. The truth of the matter is that he’s allowed to struggle, he’s 22 years old, people seem to forget that, though the Indians obviously didn’t.

 

The truth is though, if the Phillies were to give up any of the highly regarded prospects, these were the ones they wanted to give up. It’s nothing against the four of them, it just seems like they made the pieces of the puzzle fit perfectly. Donald, behind Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley for another five years, would just be a career backup for the Phillies and would have no value and diminished skill when Rollins and Utley are past their prime. Marson, probably the most costly of the departed, was viewed as the catcher of the future for Cleveland, as they are also shopping Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach. He was the huge centerpiece of the trade. Knapp, the other centerpiece of the trade, is at least three years away from making an impact at the big league level, which conflicts with the Phillies three-five year window to win another World Series. Lastly, Carrasco, while highly regarded, struggled in Triple-A and was upset at the organization in June when they promoted fellow Triple-A teammate Antonio Bastardo instead of him to replace Brett Myers in Philadephia. A change of scenery was probably the best scenario for Carrasco.

With all that said, it was worth it. By trading for Cliff Lee instead of Roy Halladay, the Phillies retaining their top prospects in the organization while keeping their entire big league nucleus intact. That seems like a good combination for success.

Or so we hope.

PHILLIES: Trade Deadline Options

As I write this, it is Monday, July 27th. On Saturday morning at 12:01, August 1st, as it has been for every year in the past two decades, the trade deadline will have been completed. For people who have minimum math skills, that means in less than five days, the public will know if Roy Halladay, or anybody else for that matter, will be added to the Phillies roster via trade. If J.P Richardi’s inclination after the Blue Jays rejected the Phillies offer on Sunday is correct, and Halladay is not dealt, here are some other players who could see themselves heading to Philadelphia.

Plan B?

Cleveland Indians SP Cliff Lee: The Phillies “Plan B” if a trade for Halladay doesn’t work out. Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner, has pitched very well this year even though his 7-9 record doesn’t show it. While his record is under .500, his 3.14 E.R.A has proved that he still has the stuff that made him the ace of the Indians staff last year. In contrast to Halladay, he’s a much cheaper option (only due just over 4 million next year), and would be more willing to sign a long term deal with the Phillies. Unlike his current team the Indians, the Phillies are a contender to go to the playoffs every year with guys like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard a lock to play behind Lee for the next three years if he is headed to Philadelphia. While the Phillies would probably still have to give up a lot for Lee (my prediction is J.A Happ, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Donald), this trade would allow the Phillies to keep their top two prospects, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown.

Seattle Mariners SP Jarrod Washburn: A once-ace for the Angels in the early part of the decade, Washburn has resurrected his career this season with the Seattle Mariners. Just one year removed from going 5-14 and contemplating retirement, Washburn is 8-6 with an impressive 2.71 E.R.A this season with Seattle, and has overtaken Eric Bedard (someone the Phillies were interested in before he went on the D.L last week) as the second-best pitcher on the Mariners starting rotation, making a potent 1-2 punch with ace Felix Hernandez. While Washburn has been impressive this season, his age (35 in August) will make unlikely that he is dealt to Philadelphia for a couple of young prospects (Happ, Drabek, Carrasco ect.). But hey, crazier things have happened.

Pittsburgh Pirates SP Zach Duke: We all know how Pittsburgh loves trading away talent. The Pirates have dealt basically their entire core, including players Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Najer Morgan, and Adam LaRoche in deals during the past year, so I would not be surprised if they trade 2B Freddy Sanchez or Duke by July 31st. The Phillies would be a good destination for Duke, considering that it was Phillies manager Charlie Manuel who selected Duke to his first all-star game this season. Duke is still young (26 years of age), and it obviously wouldn’t take as much to acquire him as it would for Halladay or Lee. With that said, I wouldn’t give up Happ for him, and if the Phillies did acquire him for a couple mid-high level prospects, I doubt the Phillies would be able to make room for him in the starting rotation.

Arizona Diamondbacks RP Chad Qualls: The Phillies bullpen has taken a mighty hit over the past couple days, as three relief pitchers have been sent to the disabled list. However, even before that, the Phillies reportedly had interest for Qualls. Most of the trade rumors have said the Phillies are mostly in the market for starting pitching, but with recent injury concerns of J.C Romero, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin, the hard-throwing righty Qualls will certainly garner some attention from the Phillies branch.

Washington Nationals OF Josh Willingham: In the off-season, when the Phillies were in the running to sign then free-agent OF Gary Sheffield, a big fuss was made about how the Phillies need a solid right-handed bat off the bench. Well, three months into the season, the Phillies still have that problem. Eric Bruntlett may be one of the worst hitters in baseball when it comes to position players (.128 BA) and John Mayberry Jr. has looked quite overmatched at times in the past month in his first stint against big league pitching. Willingham is having a pretty solid offensive season (.291 BA, 14 HR), even though hasn’t been a full-time starter all year, but has expressed his desire to play for a contender, something the Nationals obviously aren’t. Earlier this week, some reports were saying that the Nationals were interested in sending Willingham to Philadelphia for the much maligned Kyle Kendrick, but as of right now, it seems that the Phillies will need to give up a little more than that for a guy who his on pace for 25 HR’s.

 

Of course, other names could come up within the next 72 hours or so, but these are the players who have been targeted by the Phillies.

More to come over the next couple days as the trade deadline comes closer.

PHILLIES: Blue Jays Reject Phillies Offer for Halladay

Just one day after the Phillies decided against a trade that would send J.A Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown to Toronto for Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays reacted in similar fashion, denying a formal offer proposed by the Phillies.

Instead of dealing both Happ and Drabek, the Phillies took Drabek, and Brown for that matter, off the table, and counter-offered with J.A Happ, Michael Taylor, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald. The Blue Jays followed the Phillies tune from Friday, and immediately rejected the trade, as Blue Jays J.P Richardi reacted by bluntly saying “that’s not going to work.”

Obviously, the two teams are still far apart on working out a potential deal that would send Halladay to Philadelphia. While the Phillies are still in discussions with the Blue Jays, and are still likely the favorites to land Halladay because of the pieces they have in the form of prospects, the Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, and Dodgers have all entered the mix. 

Even though the MLB trade deadline is July 31st, the Blue Jays organization has issued a self-imposed trade deadline for Halladay on July 28th.

Should we start the countdown?

Two Days.

PHILLIES: Halladay Discussions “Heating Up”

So, I was at Hershey Park yesterday, enjoying a four-hour flashback to my childhood, where a buddy of mine who I was with received a phone call saying that it was “inevitable” that the Phillies were going to acquire Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. 

 

Destined for Philly?

Coming home hours later and immediately jumping into the internet, it was easy to see how the rush to that conclusion was made. The headline on ESPN.com was the exact title of this post, and for good reason. The Blue Jays made a formal offer to the Phillies, a trade that would send Halladay to the Phils for J.A Happ, top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, and the top overall prospect in the organization, outfielder Dominic Brown.

The consensus is that the Phillies denied that first offer, which likely seems to be the case because a deal is not done yet.  That doesn’t mean that they aren’t discussing a very similar counter-offer, but the overall opinion around baseball circles is that when Toronto made that offer, the Phillies branch thought they would be giving up too much, and declined.

So since the Phillies “denied” the initial offer, does that mean that this trade for Roy Halladay won’t happen?

 

Well, that depends who you ask.

Jon Heyman, a writer from Sports Illustrated who has been following this situation from the time the rumors started spreading about three months ago, believes it will.  Heyman believes that the Phillies will only include one of  J.A Happ or Kyle Drabek instead of both (something that has been rumored for some time now), but that Blue Jays GM J.P Richardi will ultimately pull the trigger on a deal because he realizes that the Phillies give the Blue Jays the best shot to get ultimate value in return for Halladay. That’s why he says that a trade that was once viewed as “50/50″ now has a good shot of getting pulled off.

However, Jayson Stark of ESPN, who reported that the Blue Jays want to much in return for Halladay, believes that the Phillies and Blue Jays are much further away from a deal than some think. Stark reported Saturday that while the Phillies and Blue Jays have narrowed it down to seven or eight names of guys who may be included in a potential deal that Halladay, J.P Richardi,  and the Phillies believe that no deal will be done come the July 28th self-imposed trade deadline made by the Blue Jays.

Personally, I am one who thinks like Heyman, and I believe that there is too much involved in this deal to pull the trigger. The Blue Jays want Happ and Drabek, they’ve said that from the start. The Phillies do not want to give up both Happ and Drabek, they’ve also said that from the start.

Something has got to give, right?

Stay tuned..