PHILLIES: A Sudden Surge

Don’t look now, but the Phillies have shown that they can at least be a shell of the team that they were projected to be at the beginning of the season.

In the last three games that is.

In those games (two of them in particular), the Phillies finally got the superior pitching from the top half of their starting rotation with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels that they have been lacking the first 3 1/2 months. Don’t get me wrong, they haven’t pitched bad, and they also haven’t gotten much help in the form of run support, but as their records have indicated (10-8 for Halladay, 7-7 for Hamels), the season so far has not gone as anticipated for two pitchers who are as highly regarded around baseball circles as they both are.

Especially for Doc.

However, for argubly the first time all season, Philadelphia fans saw Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay literally carry the Phillies to two consecutive wins when they needed it the most.

Cole Hamels may be the x-factor for the Phillies down the stretch.

Mired in three-game losing streak and in a 2-6 stretch of poor baseball, 17 combined scoreless innings from Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay brought back this Phillies team from the verge of baseball death. Although Hamels got a no-decision in his outing as the Phillies had to go to extra innings against the Cardinals to pull out the victory, to see the southpaw show signs of his 2008 form was a unbelievable sign. All things considered, with the back end of the rotation being so in-flux due an injury to Jamie Moyer, the inconsistent production from Kyle Kendrick, and the questionable status of J.A Happ, a surging Hamels along with getting the per-usual production from Halladay may deter the Phillies front office from the desperation move of depleting an already depleted farm system by dumping off more young prospects for pitching help (Dan Haren or Roy Oswalt) at the trade deadline that is just a week away.

In addition to the performances of Hamels and Halladay, the Phillies bats may have gotten the reality check they needed in the past couple of days after long-time hitting coach Milt Thompson was fired after Thursday’s game against the Cardinals. In the two games since the departure of Thompson and the return of hitting coach Greg Gross, by scoring six and ten runs respectively, the offense has finally reverted back to their 2008 and 2009 form!

Well, not quite.

However, they are starting to do things offensively that draw similarities to their prolific offensive displays of the past. Especially in the two years the Philles have gone to the World Series, the factor that has separated them from the other teams in the NL is their ability to break out at any time and take control of the game. In other words, their ability to put up a crooked number (5, 6, 7 runs in an inning) in the box score has allowed them to come back into games and put away others in a way that few other team have the ability and talent on the roster to do.

In the last two games, the Phillies ability to accomplish just that (especially sending Colorado Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez to his second loss of the season by scoring seven runs in the third inning) is just one example of how you cannot count this team out, no matter how bad they look during some stretches, whether they make a deal to get a pitcher or to trade Jayson Werth or not, until the final game of the regular season.

By my count, that is still 65 games away.

If I remember correctly, the Phillies only needed 17 games in 2007.

Other News, Notes, and Thoughts..

: Phillies have to make a move for J.A Happ to start on Sunday. The guy sent down is likely going to be Vance Worley, who pitched a scoreless inning in his big league debut on Saturday. Unfortunate.

: Even with the Cardinals the favorites to get Roy Oswalt and the Yankees the leaders to obtain Dan Haren, the Phillies are still  in the running for the services of either pitcher. In fact, the Phillies have sent out scouts to their recent starts, and the Astros have even sent scouts to recent Phillies games. However, one pitcher you can count out for the Phillies is Oakland’s Ben Sheets, who will reportedly go on the DL with a strained elbow.

: Even with a 7 IP, 1 ER start by Kyle Kendrick for his sixth win of the season, I still feel that the Phillies need to go out there and explore pitching help. Ruben Amaro can state all he wants that the Phillies are still “buyers”, but if he stands pat with a back-end of the rotation of Kendrick and a questionable J.A Happ, people may take issue with that. In the case of Kendrick, the organization has shown that they do not have confidence in him to get out big-league hitters, proved by the fact that they optioned him for Triple-A. Amaro keeping him in he rotation will only prove that he has conceded to the fact that they have no better option, a decision that will certainly allow the skeptics to question his credibility. With that said, I’m not as critical on Kendrick as most are. He’s never going to be a dominant MLB pitcher, and he has the tendency to fall victim of the big inning or even the big game, but he’s the fifth starter for crying out loud. To expect much better than a 6-4 record out of a guy in his position is unrealistic.

: SHOULD THE PHILLIES TRADE JAYSON WERTH BEFORE THE TRADE DEADLINE? I have gone back and forth on this million dollar question hundreds of times throughout the season, but the final conclusion is YES. Werth is in the prime of his career, and his a borderline all-star when he is right physically and mentally, but with the stagnant trade market for Raul Ibanez and the anticipation for the debut of Domonic Brown, this may be the only time where you can get appropriate value (and not dealing him, letting him walk in the off-season, and get two draft picks from the team that signs him is NOT enough) for Werth. Yes, dealing Werth and supplanting Brown in his place may cause the Phillies to be too left-handed dominant at the plate, but there are options to limit that, an example being a regular platoon.

EX: Trade Werth, Brown starts in RF vs. RHP, Francisco in RF against LHP, Brown spares Ibanez against LHP in LF at times in an effort to get regular at-bats.

Done, done, and done.

PHILLIES: Bullpen Starting to Shape Up

First of all, sorry for the lack of posts recently. In addition to it being the off-season, I have also been having some difficulty adjusting to life in Spain, partially due to the time difference and lack of sleep that coincides with studying abroad.

Ten days removed from stepping into Barcelona, things are finally starting to become as normal as living in a new city and a foreign country can be, so I hope to getting back to a regular posting routine.

Now that I got that out of the way, onto the meaningful stuff.

In addition to the the signing of Danys Baez, the Phillies have finalized the contracts of three more pitchers in the past two weeks who will undoubtably be part of the overly complicated pitching staff equation once the season starts in April.

Chad Durbin: I didn’t say that the contracts were for new players. Durbin, who has been a focal point of the Phillies middle relief since the 2008 season, signed two days after filing for arbitration last week. The deal, which will pay Durbin a little over 2 million dollars in 2010, brings a sense of familiarity to a Phillies bullpen that is going through one heck of a makeover. As it appears now, Durbin and Ryan Madson will most likely be the only remaining relievers from the beginning of the 2009 season to be on the Phillies 2010 Opening Day roster (J.C Romero and Brad Lidge will most likely start the season on the DL as they recover from off-season surgery). The Phillies made some good signings which will obviously talked about, but bringing back Durbin was just something they had to do.

A return to where it once started for Brandon Duckworth

Brandon Duckworth: Does the name sound familiar? Well, it should. Duckworth was a fan favorite in Philadelphia as he started his major league career in the City of Brotherly Love, playing for the Phillies from 2001-2003. After his stint in Philly, Duckworth has spent time in Houston and Kansas City over the past five season as both a starter and a reliever. For the Phillies though, Duckworth will most likely vie for a spot in the bullpen, as his addition (along with the next player I’m going to talk about)  will give Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee a plethora of hard-throwing righties to choose from in late game situations. Not a bad luxury to have. However, if Brad Lidge somehow makes it back for the start of the regular season, Duckworth’s fans may have to travel up the PA Turnpike about an hour to see him play at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Jose Contreras: Wow, can’t say I was expecting this. To be completely honest, I’ve never personally been a fan of Contreras since he was just another highly coveted prospect from Cuba that Yankees overpaid for at the beginning of the century. With that said, after acknowledging the way Contreras pitched against the Phillies in during the 2009 NLDS when he was a member of the Colorado Rockies, it’s easy to see that this signing makes a lot of sense for the Phillies, as he will fill the same role as Chan Ho Park did in 2009.

What is that role exactly?

Well, since Contreras’s track record shows success as starting pitcher (went 15-7 with the White Sox in 2005),  I do think that the Phillies will give him an opportunity to battle it out for the last spot in the starting rotation. However, I think the odds are towards Kyle Kendrick (or even Pedro Martinez) getting that opportunity when it is all said and done, as his pitching performance at Lehigh Valley and down the stretch with Philadelphia last season should give him one more shot as a starter for the Phillies. However, if that doesn’t work out, which based on Kendrick’s track record, may happen, Contreras’s versatility gives the Phillies a nice security blanket to go back on if Kendrick’s third stint as a starter does not work out, and they don’t feel comfortable with their options inside their minor league system.

To put this into perspective, I believe both Kendrick and Contreras will make the opening day roster in some capacity.  If it happens the way I think it will (Kendrick as a starter, Lidge out for the first month of the season), then Contreras will start the season as the Phillies main long-relief man just as Park did in the latter part of the 2009 season, as he will sit behind Baez as the new set-up man and Madson as the closer, a role that he both succeeded and failed in during spot duty last season.

Less, than a month until pitchers and catchers report, and I am about to fill out a form to renew my MLBTV subscription.

Good day to all.

PHILLIES: 2009 World Series

The matchup has been determined.

Phillies vs. Yankees, Dynasty vs. Destiny, Broad St. vs. Broadway.

All I can say is..wow.

Ever since the Brad Lidge slider that produced a can-of-corn fly ball that clinched the Philadelphia Phillies a trip back to the World Series six days ago (feels like six months ago), Phillies fans have been left to wait.

And wait..

And wait..

Now, the show must finally go on, starting Wednesday night, with the first pitch slated to go on as scheduled (not without a scare from mother nature) at 7:57 PM in the Bronx.

For the Phillies, it’s a return to the promise land once again. Two trips to the World Series in as many seasons, that’s not bad for a team was predicted to exit the playoffs in the first round, both years. In 2008, the Phillies cruised through the divisional and league championship series in four and five games respectively en route to the World Series. In 2009, the Phillies did, well, the same exact thing. 

Quite frankly, on paper, the Phillies are a much better team than at this point a year ago. Same nucleus of players, just an upgrade in the outfield with Raul Ibanez over Pat Burrell, and the mid-season addition of the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner in Cliff Lee to solidify the starting rotation. Add that with a year of playoff experience, and living up to enormous expectations, this team is built to win the World Series.

On the other hand, this time around, the Phillies won’t be fortunate enough to play the Tampa Bay Rays. 

No disrespect to them, but they weren’t the New York Yankees.

Now, the Phillies will have to face the team with arguably the greatest legacy in all of professional sports.

That’s without mentioning that this team has the highest payroll in baseball, had the most wins in baseball in the regular season, and have been the odds-on favorites to win the 2009 World Series since the all-star break.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

OFFENSE

PHILLIES: Five all-stars in the middle of the order, four of those with 30+ homeruns. Not many teams, none actually, have that type of power. The Phillies overpowered teams offensively throughout the team, and that did not change once the playoffs started.  On the road to the World Series, the Phillies were offensively superior to both the Colorado Rockies and and Los Angeles Dodgers, averaging over six runs a game, almost at run and a half better than they did in 2008.

YANKEES: Led by a half-healthy A-ROD and Mark Teixeira, the Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname. They were arguably the offensively explosive team in baseball for the entire regular season, leading MLB in homeruns (seven guys with 20+ HR’s), 20 ahead of the 2nd place team in that category, the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Advantage: Phillies, but ever so slightly. The Yankees have a more balanced lineup 1-9, but the Phillies are the more hot offensive team going into the World Series, and the DH in game 1 and game 2 will give them an extra bat in the lineup. Either way you look at it, this could shape up to being one of the best offensive displays in World Series history not only because of the players, but also because of the ballparks.

STARTING PITCHING

PHILLIES: Enter Cliff Lee. Fortunately, Lee has been more than just a breath of fresh air for this Phillies pitching rotation. 2-0 in the playoffs with around a 1.00 E.R.A, he is the unquestioned ace of this staff.  Combine him with the resurrected Pedro Martinez and the ex-World Series MVP Cole Hamels in supporting actor roles as the projected starters for game 2 and game 3, the Phillies are far deeper than they were at this point last year.

YANKEES: For what Cliff Lee is to the Phillies, CC Sabathia is to the Yankees. Actually, he’s probably worth more. The 160 million dollar man for the Yankees was the ALCS MVP, and is a favorite to finish in the top-3 in the AL 2009 Cy Young Award race. Accompanying Sabathia is the enigmatic A.J Burnett in game 2, and  the ageless wonder in Andy Pettitte, who is now the baseball’s all-time leader in post-season wins, for game 3.

Advantage: Slight advantage to the Yankees. I’m going to consider Lee and Sabathia as equals for this argument. A.J Burnett has the stuff to be dominant, while Pedro Martinez ironically has the mentality to be more effective, so they cancel out, with Burnett having a larger upside for a potential gem. What is big in this category is third starter. It’s crazy to think that Cole Hamels could be considered a weak link, but Pettitte, his game 3 projected opponent, has pitched much better down the stretch, especially the the LCS.

BULLPEN

PHILLIES: What a difference the playoffs make. Aside from a game 2 meltdown against the Dodgers in the NLCS, the Phillies bullpen has been pitching much like the ’08 Phillies in this post-season, not the ’09 Phillies that in the regular season blew 16 saves. Most people will say the key to this bullpen is Brad Lidge. If the Phillies are lucky that’s the case. I believe that Chan Ho Park, Brett Myers, and Chad Durbin will play a huge role in this series, especially against a Yankees team who has a penchant of knocking starters out of games early.

YANKEES: The Yankees may not have as many quality relief pitchers as the Phillies, but the ones that they do have are very, very good. With Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, the Yankees have two potentially dominant set-up guys. Note that I say set-up. Once the games get into the 9th, the Yankees bullpen consists of one guy. Mariano Rivera.

Advantage: Not even a question. Yankees.

PREDICTION: I’m obviously bias here, so no analysis required.  

Phillies in 7.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PHILLIES: Back to the NLCS

Tied 1-1 after two games in Philadelphia, I highly doubt many people thought that the Phillies would take care of business and end their NLDS series in Colorado by sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field.

Well, they did it.

In doing so, I found a strange trend.

Two heart-wrenching games later, defined by clutch performances ranging from two tenuous Brad Lidge saves to Ryan Howard winning his battle against one of the NL’s most consistent closers this season in Houston Street (twice), the Phillies are now set to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS  for the second time in, yes, the past two seasons.

Ironic isn’t it.

If only you could win a playoff series in two games, I would classify this coincidence as example of those above pulling for the Phillies to win their SECOND World Series in TWO years.

Harry the K is surely smiling from above right now.

With that said, here’s the Preview of the Phillies/Dodgers Series.

SCHEDULE

Game 1 (in LA): Thursday at 8:07 ET (Cole Hamels vs. Clayton Kershaw)

Game 2 (In LA): Friday at 4:07 PM ( Blanton/Happ/Pedro vs. Vicente Padilla)

Game 3 (In Philadelphia): Sunday at 8:07 ET (Cliff Lee vs. Hiroki Kuroda)

Game 4 (In Philadelphia): Monday at 8:07 ET (TBD vs. Randy Wolf)

Game 5 (If Necessary in Philadelphia): Wednesday at 8:07 ET (Hamels vs. Kershaw)

Game 6 (If Necessary in LA): Friday 10/22 at 8:07 ET (Blanton/Happ/Pedro vs. Padilla)

Game 7 (If Necessary in LA): Saturday 10/23 at 8:07 ET (Lee vs. Kuroda)

 

Defense

First of all, defensively, both teams are virtually even. In the infield, each team is solid around the diamond with one standout gold-glove caliber player (James Loney for the Dodgers and Jimmy Rollins for the Phillies). In the outfield, both teams have two tremendous defensive players (Matt Kemp and Andre Either for the Dodgers and Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth for the Phillies), and one defensive liability (Manny Ramirez for the Dodgers and Raul Ibanez). Just for the fact that Manny Ramirez is one of the worst defensive outfielders in recent memory, and the Phillies with Rollins and Victorino will probably have one more gold-glove award winner than the Dodgers in Matt Kemp, I have to go with ’08 champs on this one.

Advantage: Phillies

Offense

Another tough one. Probably the two most potent, deep lineups in all of baseball. One through eight in the order, each team is flat out dangerous. On pure power numbers alone, the advantage the Phillies have is tough to ignore. Four guys over 30 homeruns, five all-stars in the middle of the lineup, and a former MVP at the top of the lineup sounds about as good as a Jim’s cheesesteak (wiz with) right now. However, the Dodgers might be a little more balanced at this point. Kemp, Either and Manny are stars in the middle of the order while Loney, Russell Martin, Rafael Furcal, and Casey Blake are all dangerous hitters who have had success in the playoffs.

Advantage: Push

Bench

This one is not even close. The Phillies do have Ben Francisco, who has been an x-factor down the stretch run for Philadelphia, and Matt Stairs, who I am sure still gives Dodgers fans and players nightmares from last season. But to be honest, the Dodgers  have a plethora of more than quality options to come off the bench. Most notably, 2009 all-star Orlando Hudson and future hall-of-famer Jim Thome are available for manager Joe Torre to pinch-hit, pinch-run, defensive switch, or whatever fits his fancy.

Advantage: Dodgers

Starting Pitching

This one is a little intriguing. Most people who see a potential rotation with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Pedro Martinez (rumored starter for game 2) will say that team has the advantage in a seven-game series. Not so fast. While the Dodgers four-man rotation of Kershaw, Padilla, Kuroda, and Wolf (sounds like the name of a law firm) may not be nearly as dominant as Philadelphia’s, they have the potential to give the Phillies problems. Two left-handed starting pitchers who differ completely in they way they pitch (Kershaw: Young power pitcher; Wolf: Crafty veteran) for the Dodgers isn’t a good sign for Ryan Howard, who barely hit over .200 against lefties this year. Now, players don’t define teams, but this is the same Ryan Howard who was responsible for the producing the game-winning run in game 3 against the Rockies and the game 4 tying-run in the series clincher against the Rockies. With that said, I’ll take a rotation with a two different former Cy Young award winners (Martinez and Lee) and a World Series MVP (Hamels) any day over a team who’s game 1 starter is my age (21).

Adavantage: Phillies

Bullpen

Wow. The Dodgers actually dominate the Phillies in their best categories. The comparison with two bullpen’s is as drastic as they come. LA’s bullpen had the best E.R.A in the NL, while the Phillies bullpen was the main reason the Phillies had the most come from behind victories in the NL with 43. Next, Jonathan Broxton was an all-star closer this year for the Dodgers, while Brad Lidge blew 11 saves this year and lost his job for a three-week period at the end of the regular season. Lastly, the Dodgers George Sherill has been the best set-up man in baseball for the second half of the season (0.65 E.R.A), while the Phillies have struggled finding anyone consistent in the bullpen this year without an injury or some mechanical flaw. If the Dodgers are going to win this series, it’s going to be because of this.

Advantage: Dodgers

As I said in my last sentence, if the Dodgers win, it will be because of their bullpen. I’m not sure if it will get that far for them to play an important role in the series. I say if Hamels continues his dominance against the Dodgers (2-0 with a 0.65 E.R.A this season) starting in game 1, that the Phillies, riding that wave of confidence with a couple close calls in between, should have a good chance to go back to the World Series for the second time in as many years.

Prediction: Phillies in 6

 

PHILLIES: Game 2 Recap

After a 72-hour cool down period, the pain has finally subsided from Thursday’s 5-4 loss against the Colorado Rockies in game 2 of the NLDS. 

Finally.

But, before game 3 starts on a chilly sunday night at Coors Field, here is my chance to dwell on the past and talk about the impact of Thursday’s loss for the Phillies.

: No way Cole Hamels should have started that game. Family is something that should be put above baseball in my opinion, and with Hamels’s wife Heidi on the verge of giving birth the the couple’s first child, it’s clear that Cole’s mind was not completely fixed on the game at stake at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday. While Hamels was not in his 2008 World Series MVP form for the obvious reason, his performance kept the Phillies in the game when the bats struggled in the first four innings against Aaron Cook. That’s not that point. In my opinion, Charlie Manuel should have made the decision that starting J.A Happ (who shutout the Rockies earlier this summer at Citizens Bank Park) or Joe Blanton was a better option than a less-than-motivated Cole Hamels.

: The double-switch in the fifth inning was too early for me. Pedro Feliz is one of the best hitters in the Phillies lineup when runners are on base, and taking him out down four runs for a weak-hitting Miguel Cairo couldn’t have helped a lineup that looked perplexed by Rockies starter Aaron Cook.

:I question if bringing in Joe Blanton and J.A Happ consecutively in the fifth and sixth inning actually helped the Phillies chances in winning. In that situation, was Joe Blanton really a better choice than Kyle Kendrick and Chad Durbin, guys who have had experience in long relief pitching situations? While Happ had the bullpen experience, why not Scott Eyre in that situation? I understand Happ and Blanton have been the two most consistent pitchers on the Phillies roster this season, but that doesn’t mean they are the right candidates for a situational reliever.

: Lastly, my jaw personally dropped when Cliff Lee came in the game to pinch run in the 9th inning. Wow! With one out (which was the situation Lee came into the game in), do you really want your ace pitcher who just pitched a gem in game one sliding into second trying to break up a potential game-ending double-play. I think not.

: Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Howard are all swinging a hot bat. When Charlie Manuel sees that his 4,5, and 6 hitters all seeing the ball well stepping into two games at Coors Field, he has to feel confident that the Phillies will at least send the series back to Philadelphia for a game 5 when all is said and done in Colorado.

: The snow-out favors the Phillies, clearly. It gives another day for J.A Happ to heal, and Cliff Lee to undergo his normal rest routine. Now, instead of facing Pedro Martinez and J.A Happ, Colorado now has to face Happ in game 3 and Cliff Lee in game 4, two pitchers who have dominated the Rockies at some point this season.

Advantage Phillies.

PHILLIES: Game 1 Recap

It’s been one game, and the Phillies have already outdone their 2007 playoff performance against the Colorado Rockies. They did something they just couldn’t do two years ago.

They won.

 

Lee's complete-game gem carried the Phillies to a victory in Game 1

Accompanied by 46,000+ people in the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park (and its 25 mph winds), the Phillies rolled  to a 5-1 victory behind a complete-game from game 1 starter Cliff Lee. 

Clutch.

No other way to describe it. Lee, who struggled for the most part in September (2-4 record), showed the Phillies faithful why the trade deadline deal that brought the former Cy Young award winner to South Philly was a difference maker. After giving up 3 hits over the first two innings, Lee settled down, to the tune of retiring 16 consecutive hitters, a span that lasted over five innings. That just about set the Rockies fate, as Lee’s middle inning perfection gave the Phillies bats time to get used to Rockies game 1 starter Ubaldo Jimenez. 

Jimenez, who was flat out dominant through four innings, felt the wrath of a facing arguably the most powerful offense in the NL, as the Phillies tagged him for five runs over the next two innings, providing plenty of support for Lee to go the distance and help clinch a game 1 victory comfortably. 

A couple good things to come from this.

: With his electric stuff, Jimenez has by far the most potential to shut down the Phillies bats out of any Rockies starter, and he didn’t. With Jorge De La Rosa left off the postseason roster because of injury, Colorado now has to send Aaron Cook out to the mound for game 2, who lost his only outing this year against the Phillies at Citizens Park this season. Huge advantage to the Phillies.

: Lee’s complete game gave the Phillies a rare, comfortable playoff win. Not only did this instill confidence in the Phillies clubhouse, but it also kept the Phillies bullpen out of the game. One of the ways to ensure that Brad Lidge and company don’t blow any more saves is to have a starter who can go the distance or at least deep into games. Hopefully Cole Hamels, and whoever is starting game 3 can follow suit.

: The Phillies bats, although it took a little while, seem to look comfortable at the plate. Forget the fact that Jimenez was throwing flatout lasers on Monday (fastball topped out at 100 mph), but he also had some electric breaking pitching, especially through four innings. The five-run swing in the fifth and sixth inning showed that the Phillies adjusted, and got huge contributions from the middle of their order, something they will undoubtably need to carry them deep into the playoffs. The Phillies 4,5, and 6 hitters (Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez) each had two hits, and knocked in four of the five runs for the Phillies in those two innings.

Needless to say, big win for the Phillies.

Obviously, if the Phillies can continue getting dominant starting pitching and timely hitting, their bullpen issues won’t even be a factor in this series.

PHILLIES: Phillies-Rockies NLDS Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies are facing off in the Divisional Round of the National League playoffs.

Sound familiar?

Well, that’s because it is. Flashback to 2007, and the Phillies postseason dreams were swept away, literally, by those pesky Rockies in three games. The Rockies, at that time the beneficiaries of one of the hottest September streaks in recent memory, dominated the Phillies in every single aspect of baseball. After torching the Phillies, they rolled right to the World Series, where they finally fell to the better team, which in that specific case was the Boston Red Sox.

Now, two years later, the Rockies are virtually in the same exact position. After playing the best baseball record-wise since the all-star break, the Rockies beat out San Francisco for the wildcard spot in the playoffs, just as they did in 07′ (against the Padres). 

On the other side of this potential exciting NLDS series, the Phillies are a much different team than they were the last time they faced the Rockies in the post-season.

They have the jewelry on their ring finger to prove it.

In 2007, the thrill of one of the biggest comebacks ever to win a division and the energy surrounding the organizations’ first playoff birth in 14 years may have been a bit of a distraction for a young team that was entering the playoffs for the first time.

Now, the group of seasoned veterans that fill the Phillies roster will take the field in October for the third straight year to try to repeat the playoff success they had, with virtually the same group of players, in 2008.

It’s a huge difference.

Here’s the preview (Schedule breakdown, analysis, prediction).

Game 1: 2:37 P.M Wednesday in Philadelphia (Cliff Lee vs. Ubaldo Jimenez)

Game 2: 2:37 P.M Thursday in Philadelphia (Cole Hamels vs. Aaron Cook)

Game 3: 9:37 P.M Saturday in Colorado (Starters TBD)

Game 4 (If Necessary): Sunday in Colorado (Time and Starters TBD)

Game 5 (If Necessary): Tuesday in Philadelphia (Time and Starters TBD)

 

Why the Phillies/Rockies Will Win?

Plain and simple, the Phillies are the more talented, experienced team. Any team that has five all-stars (Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard) and a potential MVP candidate (Howard) should have an advantage against another team from a talent perspective. That’s without bringing up the pitching, which the Phillies having a former World Series MVP (Cole Hamels) and a two different Cy Young award winners (Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez) give them a clear edge over the Rockies, who just have one starting pitcher (Jason Marquis) with more than one year of playoff experience.

From a team vs. team matchup perspective, the Phillies should also have a advantage. The Rockies, who have a plethora of hitters who take their stance from the left side of the plate (Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton especially), will most likely have to face three dominate left-handed pitchers (Lee, Hamels, and Happ) to get through the Phillies. Success, especially offensively, could be a tough task for Colorado, considering the Rockies (especially Helton and Hawpe) have struggled against left-handed pitching. For a top-heavy lineup that has been carried by Hawpe, Helton, and Troy Tulowitzki for the better part of the season, the Rockies can’t afford to have lob-sided matchup for at least the first two games of the series.  That’s a clear contrast from the Phillies, who have arguably have the most depth out of any lineup in the NL (four players with 30+ HR’s, seven with 14+), and have a solid balance of left-handed and right-handed hitters with their starting position players (4 righties, 2 lefties, 2 switch-hitters).

Now, minus the bias, while the Phillies have the talent and the matchup advantage, you still have to look at Colorado as they stand right now. There is a reason this team has gone 74-31 under interim manager Jim Tracy this year. It’s not like they are just a bunch of journeymen players who have reached the prime of their respective careers at the same time. That’s just not the case. They have the combination of a young core of talented young players (Tulowitzki, Jimenez, Dexter Fowler, Houston Street) along with a solid group of productive veterans (Hawpe, Helton, Marquis, Aaron Cook), a nucleus somewhat similar to the 2008 Phillies that won the World Series.

When it comes to October baseball, the team who should win sometimes fails to come out victorious.

That’s the playoffs. 

However, in this NLDS battle, I believe that the more talented, experienced team who usually SHOULD win will end up coming out victorious when all is said and done.

Prediction: Phillies in 4

EXTRA BASES

: Projected Game 2 Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa (16-9 in 2009) was held off the playoff roster due to injury. Aaron Cook will now pitch game 2, while Jason Hammel (Game 3) and Jason Marquis (Game 4) will round out the starting rotation for Colorado.

: The Phillies have yet to release the identity of their intended closer and game 3/4 starters going into the playoffs. Both J.A Happ and Joe Blanton will be in the bullpen for games 1 and 2, keeping manager Charlie Manuel’s options open.

: The NLDS Phillies playoff roster was released, and not without a few surprises. Antonio Bastardo, Kyle Kendrick, and Miguel Cairo were all on the roster. That left Clay Condrey, Tyler Walker, and Eric Bruntlett as the odd men out.

PHILLIES: 2009 NL East Champs

I wanted to wait and write this once the regular season concluded, but the lack of passion the Phillies have showed during their final series of the year against the Marlins has started to give me a warped perception of the Phillies possible playoff success. So, to provide a more positive, honest post, I am writing as the Phillies are on the field playing their regular season finale with Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett and company.

If you didn’t already know before, or forgot to read title of this post, for the third year in a row, the Phillies will represent the NL East in the playoffs as the division champs. 

Wow, what a shocker.

First off, you got to give credit to everyone in the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Three division titles in a row is a pretty big accomplishment, and for that you have to give the Phillies players, coaches, and management a round of applause. This team, with a nucleus of players who are in or are just reaching the prime of their careers (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Victorino, Werth), truly has a chance to become a dynasty with another historic run through October to the Fall Classic.

Secondly, you have to give credit to those who are not directly related to those with the PHILADELPHIA Phillies. Yes, it is minor league affiliateso of the Phillies that I am talking about. After being an employee for one of these teams (Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs) this summer, it is very clear that while these minor league teams don’t nearly get as much publicity as those in the bigs, they are just as responsible for their organizations’ success.

Just look at the Phillies current roster.

Raul Ibanez, Carlos Ruiz, Greg Dobbs, Pedro Martinez, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, Brad Lidge, J.C Romero (out for the season due to injury), Clay Condrey, Scott Eyre, John Mayberry Jr., Paul Hoover,  Miguel Cairo, and Andy Tracy have all spent time in the Phillies minor league system for either rehabilitation purposes, or as an everyday player. The minor league teams set the foundation for an organization, and if the Phillies have any success in October, those involved the Williamsport Crosscutters, Clearwater Threshers, Lakewood Blue Claws, Reading Phillies, and the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs should give themselves a pat on the back.

Lastly, a moment of clarity.

As much as I have analyzed the Phillies flaws in almost every aspect, they have been the class of the NL East since they stepped onto the field as defending World Series champs in April. Despite a couple tenuous weeks when the Braves and Marlins would run off a sequence of games in a row and pull to within a handful of games of the Phillies, it really wasn’t even close. Without the Mets at full health for pretty much the entire season, the Phillies were by far the most talented team in the NL East, and for the most part, they proved it, capping off with their third straight divisional title.

Now, the show must go on.

(A Phillies-Rockies NLDS preview will be posted in the next day or two.)

PHILLIES: Happ to the Bullpen? Not so Fast…

Decisions..Decisions…

Just about 24 hours ago, David Murphy, one of the main beat writers for the Philadelphia Phillies, made a bold statement. In his “High Cheese” blog for the Philadelphia Inquirer, Murphy proclaimed a simple way to handle the influx of starting pitchers once Pedro Martinez is activated to the 25-man roster.

That solution?

Move J.A Happ to the bullpen. 

If only it was so simple.

 

Happ's dazzling performance Wednesday made a potential move to the bullpen almost unthinkable

Happ, who went out to the mound Wednesday night with his job as a starter basically on the line, made things for Phillies management a whole lot harder. A complete-game, four hit shutout against the Rockies will do that.

It was as if Happ knew the indecision within the organization would be a perfect source of motivation. Inning after inning, as the crowd anticipated a Happ gem more and more, it seems that he just got stronger.  

Literally.

He topped out at 93 mph on the radar gun in the waning moments of the ninth inning. When all was said and done, Happ threw 123 pitches, struck out 10 batters, got two standing ovations, and even hit a stand-up double for good measure. 

With all that has surrounded Happ in the past month, all trade rumors and process of elimination demotions to the bullpen included, his performance Wednesday night under the circumstances, which turned out to be second complete-game shutout of the season, made one thing seem all so certain to the 45,000+ in attendance and thousands of other watching.

J.A HAPP SHOULD BE A STARTER!

Now, I know what you are thinking. Six starters for five rotation spots, somebody has to go. Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton are untouchable, and Jamie Moyer and Pedro Martinez are most likely destined for Cooperstown at the end of their storied careers. So, where does Happ fit into all this?

Personally, I feel that J.A Happ is one of the Phillies five best starting pitchers. His 8-2 overall record (6-2 as a starter) and team-leading 2.74 E.R.A is a testament to that. If that is the case, and management feels the same way, then there is no reason why he should be sent to the bullpen. If the Cliff Lee trade was any indication, the Phillies are dedicated to winning NOW. Now I know this is an arguable point, but it seems that the best way to win NOW is to put your best players at the present time in the situations that they thrive in. Put your best nine players out on the field, have your best five starting pitchers in the rotation, and so forth.

At the present time, no matter how good Pedro Martinez does in certain rehab appearances (6 IP, 11 K’s Wednesday night at Double-A Reading), he will not be a better starting pitcher than J.A Happ at this point of their respective careers. No questions asked. Happ is younger, has the ability to go deeper into games, and is more fresh than Martinez at this point of his career.

Sure, Pedro Martinez may have something left in his brittle 37-year old bones. His “something” could possibly be more than a normal pitchers “everything” because of Pedro’s talent, which is undeniable. Martinez is a sure-fire Hall of Famer with 200+ wins and three Cy Young Awards.

Will J.A Happ ever be able to compete with that?

Honestly, probably not. But to aid the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies in a potential post-season run, J.A Happ is quite frankly is just a better candidate to play the role of a starting pitcher going forward the rest of the season. That’s even with Pedro’s career accolades considered in the decision.

So, now comes the real question.

What will Ruben Amaro do?

I’ll tell you what. As a spectator at J.A Happ’s gem Wednesday night, it sure seemed that the fans don’t want to see him change roles. Philadelphia fans, while they are many things, are smart. They know that Jamie Moyer doesn’t have the electric stuff or the bullpen experience to be a relief pitcher. The fans understand that the decision comes down to J.A Happ and Pedro Martinez. If Amaro does the smart thing, which would be to keep Happ in the rotation, and put Pedro in the bullpen as one heck of an intimidating set-up man or long reliever, he will most likely have the support of the majority of the fans, organization, and most importantly, the players. 

I’m not saying it’s an easy decision, because it’s not. However, Amaro he will have to adopt some Pedro Cerrano-like “marbles” (Yup, my first Major League movie reference in a blog) if he were to activate Martinez as a starter and demote arguably the most consistent Phillies starter Happ to the bullpen. Not only would he be going against the grain and the wishes of the players in the dugout who have clearly sided with Happ, but he would also be going against one of the most passionate fan bases in Major League Baseball, if Wednesday night’s atmosphere was any indication.

Well look on the bright side, it’s better to have too many starters than not have enough starters.

 

Final Note: If you readers to do not understand my Pedro Cerrano “marbles” comparison, this should help explain it.

PHILLES: Rodrigo Lopez Gets the Call…

It’s official! Rodrigo Lopez has been called up to start Friday’s opener against the Mets. Lopez will be starting in place of Antonio Bastardo, who will need a “couple weeks” to tend to his strained shoulder, his injury being well-documented in past posts. Before readers, fans, and Phillies followers everywhere overreact because they didn’t hear the name Carlos Carrasco or Andrew Carpenter, here is the rundown on Rodrigo Lopez.

 

Rodrigo Lopez: Who is he?

Before Rodrigo Lopez was in the Phillies organization trying to get his career back on track, he was a pretty decent MLB pitcher. He broke onto the scene in 2002, winning 15 games in his rookie season, and finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote to Eric Hinske. After 2002, Lopez played will the Baltimore Orioles and the Colorado Rockies until August of 2007, when he underwent Tommy John surgery. Since that point, Lopez has not played a game in the bigs.

In his 4+ years of major league experience, Lopez has a 65-65 record with a 4.80 E.R.A. After being out of baseball for all of 2008 recovering from surgery, he signed a minor league contract with the Phillies on March 5th, 2009.  This year at Lehigh Valley, where Lopez has spent the entire season, he is 5-4 with a 3.91 E.R.A in 13 games started. However, his recent pitching performances are the reason for the promotion, as he was 3-0 in his past 3 starts, with an E.R.A under 2.00.

While his velocity has steadily improved over the season, he isn’t a hard thrower, rarely topping 90 mph. Control is Lopez’s best friend, as he only has given up 13 walks in 13 games started. With a combination of a two-seem and four seem fastball, change-up, slider, and a curveball, Lopez has struck out 52 batters, in which his 4:1 strikeout/walk ratio is better than any starter on the Phillies staff.          

Why not Carlos Carrasco or Andrew Carpenter?

If Lopez has been pitching good in the past two weeks, than Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco have been pitching great.

For Carrasco, his case was simple. He is the organization’s #1 pitching prospect, he has won four out of his last five starts, and has done it in dominating fashion, with his 77 strikeouts ranking 2nd in the International League after his last start this past weekend. Most importantly, he has been featured in the Phillies farm system for the past four years as the “pitcher of the future.” Now, for the 22-year old, he must wonder, when will the future end up being the present.

For Carpenter, it may be a little difficult to justify why he wasn’t brought up. In May, Carpenter was on the good end of these decisions, getting promotion to make a spot-start for the Phillies against the Washington. He pitched DECENT, not great, but enough to get the win in the rain-shortened affair. After his first career major league win, the Phillies sent him back down to Lehigh Valley, which was expected, but surely still hard for the young 24 year-old to take. I guess you can say he handled it well, because all Carpenter has done in the past month since that is win, going 5-1 with just about a 2.00 E.R.A. Truth be told, Carpenter has probably been the most consistent pitcher this season for Lehigh Valley, which includes teammates Carlos Carrasco and Rodrigo Lopez.

What’s the Reason?

It’s a tough one to understand. It looks like this though. By the Phillies starting Lopez on Friday, that means he only will make two starts before the all-star break for the Phillies. If Carpenter or Carrasco would have got promoted, and pitched well in that time span, the Phillies would have had a lot of pressure on the decision to keep whoever was pitching up with the team, thus sealing the fate of the other prospect in this equasion, Antonio Bastardo. With Lopez, if he pitches bad, you can send him down without ruining the future of a potential prospect. If he pitches well, the Phillies can still send him back down without a big controversy if they are convinced that they want to keep Antonio Bastardo along as a starter, something you could not do with both Carlos Carrasco and Andrew Carpenter.

Lastly, the Lopez decision gives the Phillies flexibility, time to evaluate Bastardo, a veteran presence who won’t get spooked by a rivalry such as Phillies-Mets (something which I think made Lopez the decision over Carpenter), and possibly a trading chip to a team who needs a back of the rotation starter and is willing to give up a right-handed bat. So, all in all, while I do feel bad for Carlos Carrasco and Phillies fans who wanted to see his debut on Friday, for all intents and purposes, the Rodrigo Lopez promotion was probably the right choice.

I guess we’ll find out soon.                                  

To read more on the Rodrigo Lopez promotion, read “The Phillies Zone“, a Philadelphia Inquirer column.