PHILLIES: Reaction to Roy Oswalt

For the second year in a row, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. pulled the trigger on the deal that will most likely define the MLB Trade Deadline.

Last year, it was former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee who was shipped to Philadelphia, a move that gained national headlines and made the defending World Series champs even more dangerous.

We all know how that worked out.

This year, it is now Roy Oswalt, a perennial ace wasting the last year or so of his prime with the Houston Astros, who will be the next one to “take his talents” to the City of Brotherly Love in an deal to help the Phillies win their 4th consecutive NL East crown.

And what a deal it was..

THE GOOD

There is so much good to talk about regarding this deal that it needs to be split up into two different categories.

WHAT WE GOT

You just have to take a look at Roy Oswalt’s career stats for about five seconds to realize the type of talent the Phillies just added to their pitching rotation. His credentials are astonishing (3 All-Star Games, Top 5 in Cy Young voting 5 different season), and with his 143-82 career record in just over 9 1/2 big league seasons, it’s easy to see why this guy has been considered an ace pitcher for the better part a decade, a distinction that Dan Haren, Fausto Carmona, and other who had been linked to the Phillies have unfortunately never had.

Roy Oswalt is the newest member of the Phillies starting rotation.

While his talent was not a question, Ruben Amaro Jr. also made the Astros address a one of his major areas of concern without involving another team. At 32 years of age, there were clearly some worries among the Phillies brass that they were getting a guy who was on the back end of his prime (which is still at an all-star level) who was being paid like a guy who was in the middle of his prime. That was proven by the Astros paying almost half of his remaining 23 million-dollar salary over the next 1 1/3 years of his contract, an incentive that gives much needed financial support to a team that now has the 4th highest payroll in baseball.

While the Astros will end up the Phillies approximately 11 million dollars for Oswalt to pitch next year and the remaining 50 games this season for the PHILLIES is good enough in itself, it is the combination of obtaining a #1 caliber starter along with that cap relief provided by the Astros organization (Phillies will only pay 12 million to Oswalt over the next 1 1/3 years, a figure that comes out to a reasonable 9.3 mil a year), is what allows all this to look like a home-run (grandslam even) in terms of the value the Phillies got in this trade.

Oh, almost forgot, the Phillies do not have to pick up Oswalt’s 16 million-dollar 2012 option that he and the Astros originally demanded either.

WHAT WE GAVE UP

I’ll be the first one to say it. Phillies fans everywhere should be grateful for what J.A Happ has given to the organization. His 12-4 season last year was pretty tremendous, and considering he was the best pitcher on the struggling staff in 2009 before Cliff Lee showed up, it’s undeniable that he played a huge part in keeping that team afloat when Hamels, Blanton and company were struggling. He really never got the appreciation his was due.

With that said, the fact that he was the centerpiece of this trade (not Domonic Brown, Jayson Werth, or Jonathan Singleton) rivals a blessing from G-D.

Phillies P J.A Happ was sent to Houston as the centerpiece of the Oswalt deal.

While Happ has a certain attraction factor because of the talent he showed as a rookie, relatively young age, and an even cheaper contract, he was truly never viewed as an asset within the Phillies organization. For instance, he wasn’t even the rotation to start the 2009 season, as he was beaten out by Chan Ho Park for the 5th starter slot out of Spring Training. CHAN HO PARK! That alone should indicate the amount of confidence that Amaro and company had with Happ.

All things considered, J.A Happ needed a change of scenery.

The Astros, by giving Happ the dubious honor of being the focal point in this deal, seem to think that he has the makings of being a stud pitcher, possibly even an ace to replace Oswalt. In contrast to this, with the way Happ was treated (especially recently), it’s possible that the Phillies viewed his 2009 year as his eventual “ceiling” or even a possible fluke.

After finishing 3rd in the NL while dealing with added pressure of being involved in the Cliff Lee trade rumors, Happ seemed to have solidified his status in the rotation coming into the new year. That was short-lived though, as a rocky start to the 2010 campaign fueled by a 3-month oblique injury was the driving force which allowed Happ to fall out of favor with management for good. The fall from grace was so drastic that when he was finally healthy enough to pitch, he was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley because of fears that he didn’t have the “stuff” that once made him so effective.

As a fan of Happ but also a Phillies diehard, I hope his career in Houston lies somewhere in between.

For the other two 19-year-old prospects involved in the deal (OF Anthony Gose and SS Jonathan Villar), the Houston Astros better pray that the baseball futures of both these teenagers will pan out. As of right now though, getting this deal done without giving away any of the top three prospects (Brown, Singleton, and P Jared Cosart) or surging pitching prospects such as Vance Worley or Brody Colvin makes it look like Ruben Amaro is getting away with felonious crime.

Or something similar to blackmail of Astros GM Ed Wade.

Don’t get me wrong, both these guys have major talent.

While the Astros won’t have the ex-Phillies and current Astros CF Michael Bourn clone in Gose (a player who stole 78 bases at the minor league level last year) in the fold, they did trade him in a corresponding deal Thursday night to acquire 3B Brett Wallace from Toronto. Wallace, who was ironically involved in a deal last year that sent former Phillies prospect Michael Taylor to Oakland, is a player who should help impact them at the big league level right away, something that could really help Houston build for the future. With Villar, the Astros get a shortstop who is projected to have three above-average MLB tools (Power, Speed, Arm Strength) when all is said and done and his is ready for the bigs.

Overall, you can’t deny that Houston did get some short-term and long-term value.

However, with the leverage Roy Oswalt was once though to have earlier this week, it’s pretty remarkable that Ed Wade could only get the Phillies to give up an OF prospect in Anthony Gose that is AT LEAST three years away from making an impact in the big leagues and the SS prospect in Jonathan Villar that has a dreadful 42 errors in Single-A this season and is not even the top prospect in the Phillies organization at his own position (that honor goes to Double-A Reading SS Freddy Galvis).

Advantage: Phillies

THE BAD

Yes, there is some bad in the trade. Well, bad is maybe the wrong word.

More like, concerned.

On paper, it shows that the Phillies traded a pitcher that was 12-4 last year and two more young prospects in addition to the 10 or so they sent in deals for Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee for a pitcher in Roy Oswalt who has a record of 6-12 this season.

Now, there is no doubt that Oswalt is a better pitcher, than what shows up in the win/loss column. His 3.42 E.RA on the season is a clear indicator of that, and even with getting awful run support by virtue of playing on one of the worst teams in baseball,  he is still among the NL leaders in K’s (13th with 120) while ranking 47th in MLB in IP with 129 (better than NL All-Star Yovanni Gallardo).

But, with Oswalt being in line for single- digit wins and the first losing season (leads MLB in losses with 12) of his career, an obvious question remains.

Can Oswalt prove that he’s still the ace that he once was?

Time will tell.

If he is not, and the chronic back issues that he has and the pressure that comes along with Philadelphia come back to affect Oswalt, then the initial excitement of this deal could go sour very quickly.

THE VERDICT

Anytime that a GM can trade for an all-star star pitcher without having to touch any other parts of his teams big league roster, give up any of his top three prospects, and get 11 million dollars in cash back from the trading partner for good measure, it has to be considered a success.

I understand, if the Phillies kept Cliff Lee, they wouldn’t have had to do this.

Have to face the facts though. GM’s make mistakes too. Ruben Amaro decided not to keep Cliff Lee. In 1997, former Yankees GM George Steinbrenner (RIP) signed an unheard of Japanese pitcher by the name Hideki Irabu to a lucrative 14 million-dollar deal. He had a career 5.15 ERA with the Bronx Bombers, and was one of the biggest busts of the Steinbrenner regime. More recently in 2006, San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean inked Barry Zito to a notoriously awful 7 year, 126 million-dollar deal, something that he is still paying for today with Zito unable to produce a winning season in the three years since signing the dotted line. These things happen.

Will this deal help bring the Phillies back to glory?

By dealing Lee, Ruben Amaro thought the Phillies could be the same caliber of team and win with just the pure addition of Roy Halladay. When he realized that his intended goal may not pan out like that, he fessed up to his questionable decision and attempted to make amense for it by making a deal for Oswalt (Lee was out of the question) in an attempt to help save the season.

You can call GM Ruben Amaro many things, expletives even, but with this trade, “stubborn” no longer remains as one of those adjectives.

Can’t look into the past anymore either.

With Oswalt now in the fold, joining NL All-Star Roy Halladay and a surging Cole Hamels, you can now debate that the Phillies have the potential to have the most dominant starting pitching in the NL. While the rotations of the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and San Francisco Giants may be able to give a pretty good argument in that regard, there is no question that those opposing teams (and other contenders) will view the Phillies, with their improved rotation combined with an already explosive offense lineup, as an even greater overall threat to represent the NL, again, in the Fall Classic.

They have to get in the post-season first.

On a that note,  I’ll set the final scene for you now.

First weekend in October. Phillies have a 3-game series with the Atlanta Braves to end the season. NL East, of course, on the line.

The potential Phillies starters for those games.

“Halladay–Hamels–Oswalt”

That alone tells me enough about this deal. Well done, Ruben.

PHILLIES: A Team of Ex-Phillies

If you readers have some free time on your hands, take a gander at this.

Nothing like some stats to show how crazy this season has been so far. Instead of seeing the regular names like Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, or Chase Utley on top of the charts, players such as Jose Bautista, Martin Prado, and Billy Butler are among the league leaders in some of the major offensive categories.

Crazy, right?

After taking a deeper look into these stats, since I had some rare time on my hands and all, it became a bit frustrating. As the current Phillies appear to be just breaking out of a seemingly endless slump, it seems that now more than ever, the names near the top of some of the lists are players who have been spotted in the home dugout in Philadelphia at some point in their career.

This poses an interesting question..

That is, if you put together a team of the best players who have been a part but are no longer affiliated with the Philadelphia organization in any way other than the history books, who would be on it, and how good would they be in comparison to the current (note that I said current) Phillies squad?

Take a look.

(All stats accurate as of June 19th, 2009)

STARTERS

C: Rod Barajas (.253 BA, 11 HR, 30 RBI’s for the New York Mets): After hitting .230 with 4 HR’s in split-time duty with the Phillies in 2007 (he was the opening day starter), Barajas was left of the 25-man roster at the beginning of the 2008 season in favor of Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz and was granted his release from the organization. After two season as a starter in Toronto, Barajas is now with the rival Mets, and is second on the team in HR’s with 11, one behind team leader David Wright.

 

Thome was "The Man" in Philadelphia during his two seasons with the Phillies

1B: Jim Thome (.250 BA, 6 HR, 19 RBI’s for the Minnesota Twins): Thome, who hit 40+ HR’s in both his full seasons in Philadelphia, isn’t on this list because of his stats THIS year. In his time with the Phillies, the future hall-of-famer helped rejuvenate baseball in the City of Brotherly Love, in which fans of the sport like myself should be forever grateful for that. With 570 HR’s ( the last one being against the Phillies), 5 all-star appearances, and one Silver Slugger award, Thome is a virtual lock for the HOF, and will go in to Cooperstown as one of the most genuine personalities in the history of the game. While he has spent almost half of his career at DH, if it weren’t for the utter existance of one Ryan Howard, Thome would have most likely played a couple more year at first base for the Phillies, using the band-box that they call Citizens Bank Park and the short porch in RF as his personal target practice. I’m not complaining (Howard has done pretty well if I can remember correctly), but it’s still okay to wonder what could have been.

2B: Miguel Cairo (.263 BA, 2 HR, 9 RBI’s for the Cincinnati Reds): Cairo is in this spot because everyone who has played a middle infield position with the Phillies over the last decade is either still with the team, in the minor leagues, is out of baseball all-together, or has the name Nick Punto (Minnesota Twins). Honestly, it’s a toss up between the two, but I will not put in my starting lineup because I still remember him spurning me for an autograph way back when. Karma.  Not a second-basemen by nature, Cairo has made a 14-year big league career out a utility man, second base being one of the position that he has played. I already made my anti-Punto case, so it was either Cairo or Eric Bruntlett here, and Cairo gets the nod because he is actually playing in the bigs and is hitting over the Mendoza line, two qualities that he has over Bruntlett.

SS: Jason Donald (.253 BA, 1 HR, 8 RBI’s for the Cleveland Indians): Again, not much depth with the middle infield, but Donald is an interesting case. If he was not part of the deal to acquire Cliff Lee last season, he most likely would have made his big league debut with the Phillies this season instead of with the Indians, in which two disabled list stints for Jimmy Rollins would have most likely brought up Donald to the forefront of the organizational depth chart. Donald, who was considered a top-5 prospect for three seasons with the Phillies and this year with the Indians, has performed reasonably well for a struggling team in relief of Asdrubal Cabrera, who was lost for the season in late May after a gruesome arm injury, and is looking like he could be in the big leagues for a long time.

3B: Scott Rolen (.296 BA, 14 HR, 45 RBI’s for the Cincinnati Reds): As the surprise of the year, the Reds, of all teams,  have been in and out of first place the entire season. While Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and the starting pitching may get most of the credit for it, the MVP of this team and maybe the entire NL at this point of the season is Rolen. With that said, he’s a no-brainer for this spot, as he was one of the only reasons that the struggling Phillies franchise stayed afloat from 1996 to when he was traded in 2002, as he averaged 27 HR and 98 RBI’s in six full seasons with the club, winning a ROY award, 3 Gold Gloves, and making one all-star game in the time span.

 

Love him or hate him, Bobby Abreu was an all-star for the Phillies

RF: Bobby Abreu (.272 BA, 7 HR, 34 RBI’s for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim): Bobby Abreu is the the typical enigmatic Philadelphia athlete. On one end, Abreu was one of the most consistent offensive threats for the Phillies in recent memory,  hitting 20+ HR for six straight seasons with Philadelphia, making two all-star games and winning a HR Derby to add to it. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Phillies fans always had a reason to boo Abreu when he was out on the field, as his superior arm strength was overshadowed by the fact that he rarely used his maximum effort to go after balls in the outfield. At this point, Abreu being 36 years old and all, you have to take into account that his skills are going to have to drop off at some point. However, with three straight 100+ RBI seasons with the Yankees and the Angels, he is still and above-average corner outfielder in the bigs.  Note that I refuse to associate J.D Drew with the Phillies (his back-hand slap to the face of the organization when he refused to sign with the club after he was drafted by Philadelphia in the first round in 1997 still makes him public enemy #1 in my book), so it’s not like there is much competition.

CF: Marlon Byrd (.320 BA, 9 HR, 34 RBI’s for the Chicago Cubs): Based on his career, some may view Byrd a surprise pick here, being that he has basically been a platoon player since his arrival to the big league scene in 2002. However, at 32 years of age, he may be in his prime. In his first full season as a starter with Texas in 2009, Byrd hit .283, and set a career high in HR’s and RBI’s. So far this season, after signing a 3-year contract with the Chicago Cubs, Byrd has been even better, as his .320 BA is the best on his team, and ranks third in the NL. And to think, Byrd was at times viewed in Philadelphia as just a defensive replacement.

LF:  Aaron Rowand (.220 BA, 6 HR, 23 RBI’s for the San Francisco Giants): Rowand may be having a down year for the Giants. Ok, a really down year. The fact of the matter is, Rowand makes this team because he beloved by the Phillies fans in his two seasons in Philadelphia, making an all-star game in 2007, and providing the signature defensive highlight in the eight-season history at Citizens Bank Park.

BENCH: OF Pat Burrell (.246 BA, 4 HR, 18 RBI’s with the Tampa Bay Rays/San Francisco Giants), 3B/2B Pedro Feliz (.220 BA, 2 HR, 22 RBI’s with the Houston Astros), 1B/3B Wes Helms (.272 BA, 2 HR, 9 RBI’s with the Florida Marlins), OF Michael Bourn (.253 BA, 0 HR, 11 RBI’s, 21 SB with the Houston Astros), SS/2B Nick Punto (.255 BA, 1 HR, 18 RBI’s with the Minnesota Twins), C Ronny Paulino (.314 BA, 3 HR, 27 RBI’s for the Florida Marlins)

STARTING PITCHER

SP: Cliff Lee (5-3, 2.55 ERA for the Seattle Mariners): For a player who only spent three months with the organization, Cliff Lee made about as big of an impact  in Philadelphia as humanly possible. He was the teams ace for the stretch run in the 2009 regular season, and was even better when it truly mattered in the playoffs and the World Series. That alone makes him the sure-fire starter. The fact that he is the proud owner of a Cy Young award, and is arguably a top 8-10 pitcher in baseball at this point of season (2.55 ERA ranks fourth in the AL) is just a bonus.

REST OF ROTATION: Carlos Silva (8-2, 3.01 ERA for the Chicago Cubs), Freddy Garcia (7-3, 4.94 ERA for the Chicago White Sox), Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 4.21 ERA for the Oakland Athletics),  Randy Wolf (5-6, 5.08 ERA for the Milwaukee Brewers)

BULLPEN: Ryan Franklin (3-0, 2.40 ERA, 13 SV for the St. Louis Cardinals), Brett Myers (4-5, 3.34 ERA for the Houston Astros), Chan Ho Park (1-1, 5.30 ERA for the New York Yankees), Arthur Rhodes (2-1, 0.30 ERA for the Cincinnati Reds), Tyler Walker (1-0, 3.67 ERA for the Washington Nationals)

 

The Billy Wagner era in Philadelphia provided some great memories.

CLOSER: Billy Wagner (5-0, 1.27 ERA, 13 SV with the Atlanta Braves): Even though Wagner may have had an up and down tenure with the Phillies, both on the field and in the clubhouse, he will always be remembered for hitting 100 mph on the radar gun in the first night game at the new Citizens Bank Ballpark in 2004. I was personally one of the fans in the crowd who gave him a standing ovation during that game that seemed like an eternity. With that said, after having great years before Philadelphia with the Houston Astros, and bad years after Philadelphia with the New York Mets, “Billy the Kid”  has seemed to revive his career for at least one more season with the Braves, in which a bid to the 2010 All-Star game might be on the horizon for the 40-year old veteran closer.

THOSE WHO MISSED THE CUT: Matt Stairs, Russell Branyan, Gavin Floyd, Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Lohse, Robinson Tejeda, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jaramillo, Jack Taschner, Lou Marson, Gustavo Chacin

So, that’s the team. Can they compete with the current Phils?

PHILLIES: Bullpen Starting to Shape Up

First of all, sorry for the lack of posts recently. In addition to it being the off-season, I have also been having some difficulty adjusting to life in Spain, partially due to the time difference and lack of sleep that coincides with studying abroad.

Ten days removed from stepping into Barcelona, things are finally starting to become as normal as living in a new city and a foreign country can be, so I hope to getting back to a regular posting routine.

Now that I got that out of the way, onto the meaningful stuff.

In addition to the the signing of Danys Baez, the Phillies have finalized the contracts of three more pitchers in the past two weeks who will undoubtably be part of the overly complicated pitching staff equation once the season starts in April.

Chad Durbin: I didn’t say that the contracts were for new players. Durbin, who has been a focal point of the Phillies middle relief since the 2008 season, signed two days after filing for arbitration last week. The deal, which will pay Durbin a little over 2 million dollars in 2010, brings a sense of familiarity to a Phillies bullpen that is going through one heck of a makeover. As it appears now, Durbin and Ryan Madson will most likely be the only remaining relievers from the beginning of the 2009 season to be on the Phillies 2010 Opening Day roster (J.C Romero and Brad Lidge will most likely start the season on the DL as they recover from off-season surgery). The Phillies made some good signings which will obviously talked about, but bringing back Durbin was just something they had to do.

A return to where it once started for Brandon Duckworth

Brandon Duckworth: Does the name sound familiar? Well, it should. Duckworth was a fan favorite in Philadelphia as he started his major league career in the City of Brotherly Love, playing for the Phillies from 2001-2003. After his stint in Philly, Duckworth has spent time in Houston and Kansas City over the past five season as both a starter and a reliever. For the Phillies though, Duckworth will most likely vie for a spot in the bullpen, as his addition (along with the next player I’m going to talk about)  will give Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee a plethora of hard-throwing righties to choose from in late game situations. Not a bad luxury to have. However, if Brad Lidge somehow makes it back for the start of the regular season, Duckworth’s fans may have to travel up the PA Turnpike about an hour to see him play at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Jose Contreras: Wow, can’t say I was expecting this. To be completely honest, I’ve never personally been a fan of Contreras since he was just another highly coveted prospect from Cuba that Yankees overpaid for at the beginning of the century. With that said, after acknowledging the way Contreras pitched against the Phillies in during the 2009 NLDS when he was a member of the Colorado Rockies, it’s easy to see that this signing makes a lot of sense for the Phillies, as he will fill the same role as Chan Ho Park did in 2009.

What is that role exactly?

Well, since Contreras’s track record shows success as starting pitcher (went 15-7 with the White Sox in 2005),  I do think that the Phillies will give him an opportunity to battle it out for the last spot in the starting rotation. However, I think the odds are towards Kyle Kendrick (or even Pedro Martinez) getting that opportunity when it is all said and done, as his pitching performance at Lehigh Valley and down the stretch with Philadelphia last season should give him one more shot as a starter for the Phillies. However, if that doesn’t work out, which based on Kendrick’s track record, may happen, Contreras’s versatility gives the Phillies a nice security blanket to go back on if Kendrick’s third stint as a starter does not work out, and they don’t feel comfortable with their options inside their minor league system.

To put this into perspective, I believe both Kendrick and Contreras will make the opening day roster in some capacity.  If it happens the way I think it will (Kendrick as a starter, Lidge out for the first month of the season), then Contreras will start the season as the Phillies main long-relief man just as Park did in the latter part of the 2009 season, as he will sit behind Baez as the new set-up man and Madson as the closer, a role that he both succeeded and failed in during spot duty last season.

Less, than a month until pitchers and catchers report, and I am about to fill out a form to renew my MLBTV subscription.

Good day to all.

PHILLIES: News and Notes..

It’s been about three weeks since the Roy Halladay deal went down, and finally it seems that the seas have settled in regards to the Phillies off-season moves. 

As of the start of the new year, the Phillies lineup and pitching rotation (except the fifth and final spot) are all but solidified. While it’s pretty standard for a team to return the majority of their nucleus when they were two wins short of back-to-back World Series titles, the Phillies did that, added some depth with Brian Schneider and DeWayne Wise , and made two small upgrades (Halladay over Cliff Lee and Placido Polanco over Pedro Feliz) in terms of talent in my opinion to their player personnel. 

Can’t complain about that.

The only part of the team in a bit of a state of flux right now is the bullpen. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson will be back, keeping the enigmatic set-up man/closer combination that produced the most blown saves (17) in the National League last year. As for the middle relievers, they may look a little different come opening day. Brett Myers was casted away by GM Ruben Amaro as he cleaned out his locker after the World Series, and it looks like Chan Ho Park will be joining him out the door as well. 

Baez is the newest addition to the current powerhouse of the National League

 

Last week, the Phillies agreed to terms with former Baltimore Orioles reliever Danys Baez on a 2-year deal, as his signing will give the Phillies a replacement for Park as a right-handed long reliever. In regards to replacing Myers, the Phillies will probably look internally within the organization, as a lot depends on what they decide to do with filling the fifth starter role. If Jamie Moyer is good to go health wise, they will probably enter Spring Trainer with him occupying that role on the depth chart, with Kyle Kendrick the candidate to take the place of Myers alongside Chad Durbin as middle inning men. 

In terms of left-handed relievers, Antonio Bastardo will be in line to take over J.C Romero’s job for the first month of the season, as Romero will still be recovering from off-season surgery. However, the real x-factor in this category is Scott Eyre.

Eyre is still unsure about deciding to return to the Phillies next season, as he’s reportedly leaning towards retirement. If Eyre stays, all is well, and the Phillies will most likely go into the regular season with two left-handed relievers on the opening day roster. If he chooses to hang up the cleats, look out for a free-agent signing or two in the future. 

Lastly, if you think the Phillies are going to try to make a move to counter the Mets signing of Jason Bay, you are mistaken. Bay is just another example of a powerful right-handed hitters that are known for existing in the NL East (David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez are just examples), and the Phillies, with the addition Halladay and Baez, have already the necessary moves.

PHILLIES: 2009 Winter Meetings Recap

For the first year in my young life, I was able to attend the baseball winter meetings.

Sure, I may not have had press credentials, but walking through the lobby of the Marriott Hotel in Indianapolis and seeing Peter Gammons, Ken Rosenthal, and Buster Olney huddled in a corner exchanging information while across the hall Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox, Boston Red Sox manager Terry Francona, and Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta were at a table eating breakfast together, you can imagine what a prospective sports journalist like myself was feeling.

In the three days I was there, while looking for jobs, I got to talk to some members of the Philadelphia media regarding the moves of the Phillies at the Winter Meetings. Thanks to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Paul Hagen and Andy Martino, and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, I was able to find out that this was the most boring Winter Meetings for the Phillies in recent memory.

Great.

However, there is still some news regarding past, present, and possibly future members of the Phillies organization.

: Phillies have agreed to terms with Ross Gload, who led the MLB in pinch-hits in 2009 with the Kansas City Royals. In a strange coincidence, the Phillies also have Greg Dobbs on their roster, who led the league in pinch-hits in 2008.

: Former Philles 3B Pedro Feliz has agreed in principle to a 1 year, 4 million dollar deal with the Houston Astros.

: Soon-to-be former Phillies P Brett Myers has been in contact with both the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds. Both Martino and Zolecki hinted that Myers could find a job with couple NL teams that would at least give him the chance to compete for a spot in the starting rotation.

: After getting in touch with the agents of both RP Latroy Hawkins and RP Brandon Lyon, both players signed with different teams. With them off the market, look for the Phillies to contact Jose Contreras.

: Phillies, as expected,  have been in contact with the Toronto Blue Jays in regards to trading for SP Roy Halladay. However, the Angels have emerged as the front-runner to obtain the rights of the former Cy Young Award winner.

: Phillies have been in contact with agents of both RP Chan Ho Park and SP Pedro Martinez in talks to bring them back to Philadelphia next season.

: If the Phillies cannot reach a deal with Martinez, they will fill the role of 5th starter in the rotation internally (Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick) or sign someone else to a 1-year deal, in which John Smoltz is the name that keeps on getting brought up.

: Nothing new to report on the statuses of RP Chad Durbin and RP Scott Eyre. Both are free agents and are seeking 1-year deals with exclusively the Phillies.

As people come and go, updates will be given on this blog.

PHILLIES: 2009 World Series

The matchup has been determined.

Phillies vs. Yankees, Dynasty vs. Destiny, Broad St. vs. Broadway.

All I can say is..wow.

Ever since the Brad Lidge slider that produced a can-of-corn fly ball that clinched the Philadelphia Phillies a trip back to the World Series six days ago (feels like six months ago), Phillies fans have been left to wait.

And wait..

And wait..

Now, the show must finally go on, starting Wednesday night, with the first pitch slated to go on as scheduled (not without a scare from mother nature) at 7:57 PM in the Bronx.

For the Phillies, it’s a return to the promise land once again. Two trips to the World Series in as many seasons, that’s not bad for a team was predicted to exit the playoffs in the first round, both years. In 2008, the Phillies cruised through the divisional and league championship series in four and five games respectively en route to the World Series. In 2009, the Phillies did, well, the same exact thing. 

Quite frankly, on paper, the Phillies are a much better team than at this point a year ago. Same nucleus of players, just an upgrade in the outfield with Raul Ibanez over Pat Burrell, and the mid-season addition of the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner in Cliff Lee to solidify the starting rotation. Add that with a year of playoff experience, and living up to enormous expectations, this team is built to win the World Series.

On the other hand, this time around, the Phillies won’t be fortunate enough to play the Tampa Bay Rays. 

No disrespect to them, but they weren’t the New York Yankees.

Now, the Phillies will have to face the team with arguably the greatest legacy in all of professional sports.

That’s without mentioning that this team has the highest payroll in baseball, had the most wins in baseball in the regular season, and have been the odds-on favorites to win the 2009 World Series since the all-star break.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

OFFENSE

PHILLIES: Five all-stars in the middle of the order, four of those with 30+ homeruns. Not many teams, none actually, have that type of power. The Phillies overpowered teams offensively throughout the team, and that did not change once the playoffs started.  On the road to the World Series, the Phillies were offensively superior to both the Colorado Rockies and and Los Angeles Dodgers, averaging over six runs a game, almost at run and a half better than they did in 2008.

YANKEES: Led by a half-healthy A-ROD and Mark Teixeira, the Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname. They were arguably the offensively explosive team in baseball for the entire regular season, leading MLB in homeruns (seven guys with 20+ HR’s), 20 ahead of the 2nd place team in that category, the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Advantage: Phillies, but ever so slightly. The Yankees have a more balanced lineup 1-9, but the Phillies are the more hot offensive team going into the World Series, and the DH in game 1 and game 2 will give them an extra bat in the lineup. Either way you look at it, this could shape up to being one of the best offensive displays in World Series history not only because of the players, but also because of the ballparks.

STARTING PITCHING

PHILLIES: Enter Cliff Lee. Fortunately, Lee has been more than just a breath of fresh air for this Phillies pitching rotation. 2-0 in the playoffs with around a 1.00 E.R.A, he is the unquestioned ace of this staff.  Combine him with the resurrected Pedro Martinez and the ex-World Series MVP Cole Hamels in supporting actor roles as the projected starters for game 2 and game 3, the Phillies are far deeper than they were at this point last year.

YANKEES: For what Cliff Lee is to the Phillies, CC Sabathia is to the Yankees. Actually, he’s probably worth more. The 160 million dollar man for the Yankees was the ALCS MVP, and is a favorite to finish in the top-3 in the AL 2009 Cy Young Award race. Accompanying Sabathia is the enigmatic A.J Burnett in game 2, and  the ageless wonder in Andy Pettitte, who is now the baseball’s all-time leader in post-season wins, for game 3.

Advantage: Slight advantage to the Yankees. I’m going to consider Lee and Sabathia as equals for this argument. A.J Burnett has the stuff to be dominant, while Pedro Martinez ironically has the mentality to be more effective, so they cancel out, with Burnett having a larger upside for a potential gem. What is big in this category is third starter. It’s crazy to think that Cole Hamels could be considered a weak link, but Pettitte, his game 3 projected opponent, has pitched much better down the stretch, especially the the LCS.

BULLPEN

PHILLIES: What a difference the playoffs make. Aside from a game 2 meltdown against the Dodgers in the NLCS, the Phillies bullpen has been pitching much like the ’08 Phillies in this post-season, not the ’09 Phillies that in the regular season blew 16 saves. Most people will say the key to this bullpen is Brad Lidge. If the Phillies are lucky that’s the case. I believe that Chan Ho Park, Brett Myers, and Chad Durbin will play a huge role in this series, especially against a Yankees team who has a penchant of knocking starters out of games early.

YANKEES: The Yankees may not have as many quality relief pitchers as the Phillies, but the ones that they do have are very, very good. With Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, the Yankees have two potentially dominant set-up guys. Note that I say set-up. Once the games get into the 9th, the Yankees bullpen consists of one guy. Mariano Rivera.

Advantage: Not even a question. Yankees.

PREDICTION: I’m obviously bias here, so no analysis required.  

Phillies in 7.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PHILLIES: Simply Summing It Up..

To sum it all up, the Phillies are not a World Series caliber team right now.

Yes, they do have a virtual lock on their third straight NL East title, with a team who statistically has the most prolific offense in the NL, but it’s very clear. The Phillies were surpassed by the St. Louis Cardinals in the popular vote for NL supremacy some time ago, and while the reasons aren’t necessarily controllable, it’s hard to deny those reasons as the obvious.

If you follow this blog, you know the reasons. Brad Lidge, injuries, inconsistency with both the starting and relief pitching, and the inability hitting with runners in scoring position have been they concepts frequently touched upon in past posts.

With that said, it’s undeniable that the Phillies, great in some areas but shaky in others (see above) when it comes to playing the game of baseball, have to get just drastically better in those areas of concern.

Unfortunately, if they Phillies can’t improve these eye-popping flaws that they possess virtually every time they step on the field in the next 10-14 days, the combination they currently have is the worst possible recipe to repeat as champs. 

Look at last year.

It wasn’t gaudy offensive statistics (4.5 runs a game in the 2008 playoffs) that led the Phillies to the promise land. To be honest, It was a combination of a healthy and confident bullpen (Lidge), dominant and consistent starting pitching (Cole Hamels), and timely hitting (Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins) that eventually led to the defeat of the Milkwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and lastly the Tampa Bay Rays. How many of those attributes do the Phillies possess right now?

That’s right, zero.

With that said, it’s not likely, but timely hitting can be outdone by the offensive barrages (a.k.a blowouts) that the Phillies are indeed capable of this season. Also, while the starting pitching doesn’t have “dominating” season stats, they have been a top-3 pitching staff since the all-star break in the NL when it comes to wins and E.R.A.

So..that leaves the relief pitching as the “x-factor” of this playoff recipe to success.

First and foremost, the Phillies need to get their members of their pitching staff healthy.

Fast. 

Going into the playoffs without reliable arms who have been their before like Chan Ho Park (Hamstring) and J.C Romero (Forearm) in the bullpen would be bad, while going into October without potentially dominant arms like J.A Happ (Oblique), Brett Myers (Shoulder), and Pedro Martinez (Neck) would be worse.

 

The potential kryptonite to the Phillies' playoff chances is the performance of those in the bullpen

All are possible due to current injuries to each of the five players (who are or could be main contributors to the Phillies post-season bullpen) mentioned above.

Most importantly, while I am spending time talking about those who are unable to pitch, it’s become clear that those who are healthy enough to actually get on the mound and try to earn their paycheck are the playerswho I should direct my sometimes reserved, but in this case justified criticism towards.

Quite frankly, those who reside in the ‘pen for the majority of the game are just not getting the job done. Even worse, It’s not just the now-demoted closer Brad Lidge, who now has an unprecedented MLB-high 11 blown saves, that is doing the damage. Ryan Madson has almost as many blown saves (6) as he does actual saves (8). Both Jamie Moyer (blew the lead) and Tyler Walker (blew the game) played a crucial role in the Phillies collapse on Saturday against the Milwakuee Brewers.

Now that everyone is in on the party, who is going to play the role of the cop that shuts it down (note the phrase “shuts it down”)?

Lidge? Too many chances.

Madson? Too inconsistent.

Myers? Too unstable.

Walker? Too boring (and believe me, boring is bad if you are a closer).

Yes, this may seem very drastic. In some cases, it is. While I am sadly turning into a realist/pessimist at my old age, my optimistic section of my split-personality will say that If the Phillies starting pitching can go deep into games or the the Phillies offense can spare the bullpen pressure with runs, which each are capable are doing, than this whole discussion will be a non-issue. 

I hope it is.

But to those who agree with this optimistic stance, I show you this.

That is what a good bullpen can do for a team, which is the same good bullpen that the Phillies just don’t have right now.

Now at this point, I guess Phillies fans should cling to the possibility that Brad Lidge and the rest of the Phillies bullpen will get their mojo back so this potential trip down memory lane can actually occur. 

Without that possibility, the Phillies are not a team that deserves to represent the NL in the Fall Classic.

It’s as simple as that.

PHILLIES: Injuries Impact Roster Decisions

First off, sorry for the week-long hiatus. 

While my excuses may be valid (21st birthday, flu, bronchitis), I will make a consistent effort to post more on a regular basis.

Now on to the good stuff.

The Phillies magic number is still at SIX. That means that with six more combinations of a Phillies win OR a Braves loss, the Phillies will capture their third straight NL East regular season crown. 

Wow.

With that said, it would take a New York Mets like collapse (2007) for the Phillies to blow the division at this point. So for right now, I am going to assume that the Phillies can play .500 baseball for the next two weeks and win the division with room to spare.

Honestly, the Phillies have to worry about getting their arms healthy as much as they do about clinching at this point. Here is a list of names of the walking wounded for the Phillies pitching staff right now.

J.A Happ (Oblique Strain), Pedro Martinez (Stiff Neck), Brett Myers (Shoulder-Hip), J.C Romero (Forearm), Chan Ho Park (Hamstring), Scott Eyre (Elbow).

See what I mean..

While, fortunately, these injuries haven’t been to a Utley, Howard, Hamels, or Lee, they still for pose obstacles when formulating the playoff roster.

For example, the Phillies do not have a healthy left-handed relief pitcher right now with playoff experience (Jamie Moyer and J.A Happ are considered starting pitchers).  If J.C Romero and Scott Eyre have difficult getting healthy before October, the Phillies might be forced to put Happ in the bullpen for the second consecutive post-season to give a left-handed relief pitching presence.

This is where it gets a little tricky.

What happens to J.A Happ if Pedro Martinez’s neck issues become a consistent problem? For what is being reported, the Martinez injury isn’t that serious, so hopefully it isn’t an issue. But if (and note I say if) Pedro’s middle-aged body fails on him, Happ would have to be used as the 4th starter in the playoffs, only leaving Jamie Moyer and Sergio Escalona as the two left-handed arms in the bullpen if Romero and Eyre are unable to go.

Not much depth there. 

Also, with the injuries to Chan Ho Park and Brett Myers, who is going to take the role of the main right-handed middle reliever when October rolls around?  Do the Phillies take a chance with the combination of Chad Durbin, Tyler Walker and/or Kyle Kendrick, and leave both Park and Myers off the playoff roster?

Confusing, right?

To simplify this tough playoff roster equation, I took a look into my crystal ball, and here is what I think is going to happen.

1. Myers will be healthy enough for the playoffs while Chan Ho Park won’t.  Myers, Tyler Walker and Chad Durbin will take over Park’s role as the long reliever , and they will join Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge as the righties in the bullpen. Clay Condrey or Kyle Kendrick may be added to the playoff roster for insurance with the injury concerns.

2.  Eyre and Romero both get healthy in time for the playoffs. Phillies go into the playoff with four lefties in the bullpen. Eyre and Romero for short relief, Moyer and Happ for long relief.

3. Since I said that Happ will be in the bullpen for long-relief, that means that I believe that Pedro Martinez will be healthy enough to be put on the playoff roster. With the way Martinez has pitched in his stint with the Phillies, you cannot leave him off the playoff rotation.  He gives Philadelphia a confidence and a veteran presence that no one else on the Phillies pitching staff. Not only that, Martinez over Happ gives the Phillies an even balance in the starting rotation (two righties and two lefties). 

4. The order of the starting rotation will depend on if the Phillies have home-field for the first round of the playoffs. If they do, Cole Hamels will start game 1, followed by Joe Blanton, Cliff Lee and Martinez. If they don’t, Lee will start game 1, followed by Blanton, Hamels, and Martinez. This will be done to allow Cole Hamels to pitch at home, as his E.R.A this season is almost 2 points less at home than it is on the road.

5. Lidge is the closer going into the playoffs. Plain and simple.

Hope that cleared everything up. 

If that didn’t, what goes down in the next two weeks will undoubtably do that whether we like it or not.

PHILLIES: The Wrong Side Of a Sweep

Up 7 1/2 games in the NL East with less than a month to play in the regular season, things could surely be worse for the Philadelphia Phillies.

However, when one of the best road teams in all of baseball gets swept in a series by an NL central division doormat, it has to be concerning, to say the least.

That is what happened with the Phillies this weekend as they went down to Houston and lost all four games to the Astros, who are everything but statistically eliminated from playoff contention.

It’s not the fact that the Phillies got swept that I am upset about. A bad series, especially on the road, is prone to happen at least a couple times a year. I’m just upset, perplexed, and every negative synonym imaginable about how it happened.

At this point of the season, it’s all about pitching, and it was the hurlers that let the Phillies down this past weekend.

When Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton, and Cole Hamels are able to take the mound as the starting pitchers for a series, you should be able to win at least one of those. Lee has been the definition of an ace since he tried on a Phillies uniform, Hamels is still one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, and Blanton has been a workhorse all season long. All three pitchers are, quite frankly, the main contributors (with all due respect to J.A Happ and Pedro Martinez) to a starting rotation that has been among the best pitching staff’s statistically in all of baseball during the second half of the season.

For the Phillies to not win a game when all three pitch in a series could be an awful sign of things to come.

Why?

Because most likely, Lee, Blanton, and Hamels will be the top three pitchers in the starting rotation once the October rolls around and the Phillies are in the playoffs. When that time comes, unfortunately, the Phillies will be playing a team much better than the Astros squad that just swept them.

In all honesty though, this weekend’s debacle against the Phillies went much further than just the starting rotation. In three of the four games, the Phillies had a lead past the fourth inning, and blew a lead in two games past the seventh inning.

I know it’s easy to blame this on the usual suspects, or in this case, suspect.

Park's frustration was felt throughout the Phillies organization when swept by the Houston Astros this past weekend

Yes, Brad Lidge gave up a walk-off once again, now reaching double-digits in the category of blown saves this season, but the major problem did not reside with the much maligned closer in this series. Houston was able to win two of the four games by pouncing on the Phillies middle relief pitching, stealing possible wins for Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer. Most notably, the Astros offense got the best of Chan Ho Park, who has been the best right-handed relief pitcher for the Phillies since he was summoned to the bullpen in June in favor of Antonio Bastardo.

Oddly enough, it was not the Astros bats that got to Park.

It was their eyes.

Up by a score of 3-2 in the seventh inning on Monday, Park walked three batters, including a runner home with the bases loaded to tie up the contest. Park would end up handing the ball over to Scott Eyre with virtually no chance to salvage the situation, as the Astros would tack on one more run, which was all they ended up needing.

So, from the starting rotation to the middle relief and lastly to the closer, the Phillies struggled in all areas of pitching in the series against the Astros. As easy as it is to blame the sweep on pitching, you can’t.  While they did have their moments,  the Phillies bats didn’t nearly resemble the second-best run scoring offense in the NL.

However, while offense may put fans in the stands, it is pitching that wins games and championships.

In this past series, it was those who reside on the rubber that led the Phillies to the wrong side of a sweep against the Houston Astros.

Sidenote: J.A Happ missed his scheduled start on Monday was a strained oblique muscle. Jamie Moyer took his place and performed relatively well, giving up just 2 runs in 6 innings pitched. While Happ’s injury does not seem serious (he was not placed on the D.L), the Phillies will monitor his condition and recovery on a day-to-day basis.

PHILLIES: Myers Rehab Well Ahead of Schedule

It seems like an eternity ago. Brett Myers walking off the mound, leaving a May 27th game against the Florida Marlins with a seemingly endless limp, fans and players in Citizens Bank Park and others watching knowing that it may be the last time they would see Myers in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform (contract expires at the end of the season). The diagnosis of a torn labrum in his hip echoed that, Myers had surgery,  and it was a forgone conclusion that he would be done for the year.

Not so fast.

 

Brett Myers may be back in uniform for a Phillies potential playoff push in September

Since the surgery, Myers’s tremendous physique (that was sarcasm for those who haven’t heard his name before) has allowed his body to heal quicker than anticipated, even to the point that Myers is now starting a throwing program 1 1/2 months ahead of schedule. 

For Myers to return this season, as some reports have indicated, it will be in a role similar to what Brett Myers did for the Phillies in 2007. Yes, that was the year that he was the Phillies closer for the last half of the season, had 21 saves, and was a huge reason that the Phillies were able to win the 2007 NL East down the stretch. This year though, Brad Lidge, barring any huge collapse, will stay in his role closer, and Myers, if and when he does come back, will be used as a middle-reliever or set up man.

If the rehabilitation goes as well as advertized, and Myers is able to be activated of the D.L in the capacity of a relief pitcher sometime next month, things could get interesting.

My guess the Phillies will wait until September 1st, when the roster expands from 25 to 4o guys, to bring Myers up if he is healthy, so they don’t have to demote anybody. From September 1st to the last game of the regular season, Myers will get work sparingly, but more and more appearances as the month goes on, in an attempt to keep him fresh and get him back in the swing of things. 

Now, if the Phillies make the playoffs, which most of us expect, the Phillies have some flexibility to what they can do. Let’s assume for the time being that the Phillies hold their 6 1/2 game lead in the division over the next two months and win the NL East for the third year in a row.  Since the roster shrinks again come the playoffs, for Myers to be on the team, a demotion to a player currently on the roster will need to happen. In order o make that demotion, members of the Phillies organization first have to decide come playoff time if Myers will be used as starter or a reliever.

It’s a much tougher decision than it seems. Honestly, even if Myers isn’t 100% healthy, I think if the Phillies gave him the ball as the game 3 starter of the Divisional Round of the playoffs and said “give us 6 innings”, he’d give them 7. He’s that kind of player. But if this whole Pedro Martinez thing works out, J.A Happ and Joe Blanton keep on pitching like they have been (assuming this Roy Halladay deal does not happen), and Cole Hamels gets back into gear, there is NO room for Myers in the starting rotation, especially with his durability in question. That’s why I think the Phillies will keep him in the bullpen for the playoffs.

With that said, the player who will be demoted to make room for Myers will most likely be a right-hander reliever, so the likely options are Chad Durbin, Chan Ho Park, or Clay Condrey. Tough call there, but I actually think out of all of them, Condrey might be the one who goes. That’s just because at the present time, Chan Ho Park is pitching lights out (three scoreless innings Tuesday night against the Cubs) and Durbin doesn’t have the health issues that Condrey has. Obviously, that can change in a matter of days, let alone two months.

Then again, in that time, the status of Brett Myers’s surgically repaired hip can also obviously change.