Just 24 hours ago, Phillies fans like myself still thought that Roy Halladay was going to be on his way to Philadelphia at the end of the trade deadline. Now, the only time he will be coming to the City of Brotherly Love is as a visitor or if he secures a spot in the opposing teams’ dugout.
Welcome Cliff Lee. A deal that basically was developed, executed, and finalized before you can clap you hands now will most likely be the trade that defines the 2009 Trade Deadline. Headlines will read “2008 AL Cy Young going to the reigning World Champs.”
Wow, does that sound great.
Or does it?
Here is the good, the bad, and the truth in the biggest trade for the Philadelphia Phillies since they acquired Freddy Garcia (and you know how that turned out).
The Good:
Just look at this trade on the surface. Cliff Lee (2008 AL Cy Young Award winner) and OF Ben Francisco traded to the Phillies for four minor league prospects. Wow. The Phillies got starting pitching help in an ace and the right-handed bat off the bench they’ve been searching for all year without giving up one person from the big league roster that is 18 games above .500 and has a seven-game lead in the NL East. Not only that, the Phillies didn’t even give up any of their three “untouchables”, as Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor are all still members of the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Even J.A Happ, a potential rookie of the year candidate in the NL for the Phillies, was left out of the deal and is, for right now, staying in Philly. That’s a luxury they certainly wouldn’t have had if Roy Halladay were to make his home at Citizens Bank Park. Speaking of Halladay, it’s quite possible that for the Phillies, Lee may have been a better option all together than “Doc”. Lee is younger (30) than Halladay (32), cheaper (5 million a year in contrast to Halladay’s 15.75 million), and demanded far less value than Halladay would (Toronto wanted J.A Happ, Drabek and Brown in return). Even with acquiring Lee over the better overall pitcher in Halladay, the Phillies pitching staff is now certainly better, and is as deep as ever. A Cole Hamels/Cliff Lee one-two punch combined with Joe Blanton, Happ, Jamie Moyer, and Pedro Martinez finishing out the back end of the rotation will provide the star-power and consistency to be the among the best rotations in the baseball. Add that with the best offense in baseball, and there is no reason that the Phillies shouldn’t be the favorite to represent the NL in the World Series for the second season in a row.
The Bad:
(Note, this is me playing devil’s advocate)
Here is where my pessimistic Philadelphia sports attitude sets in. If the Phillies attitude is to win now, which they showed by traded four highly regarded prospects, why didn’t they just go for the touchdown pass with Roy Halladay instead of going for the field goal in Cliff Lee. Lee’s 22-3 season last year could simply be a case of a “one-year wonder”, as he is below .500 with a 7-9 record this year. For Halladay, who is widely regarded as one of the top-3 best pitchers in the league, and may go down as one of the best pitcher of our generation, Toronto was asking for J.A Happ, the Phillies top overall prospect in Dominic Brown, and the so-called pitching phenom Kyle Drabek. Instead Phillies gave up four prospects for Lee, with fellow pitcher Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and Jason Donald all ranked as higher prospects than Drabek by Baseball America. Combine that with the loss of 18 year-old flamethrower Jason Knapp (who scouts have compared to Jonathan Papelbon), the Phillies just dealt four players who were thought as the future of the Philadelphia baseball. If last year was just a fluke, and Lee continues his sub .500 performance of this year and basically every other year until his contract with Philadelphia ends in 2010, not only would that close the window of opportunity to bring another World Series parade down Broad Street, but the loss of these integral parts of the organization could set back the Phillies for five year, maybe longer.
The Truth:
For GM Ruben Amaro, this was the perfect trade to make. Lee will obviously solidify the rotation and strike fear in basically every NL team who could face the Phillies in a game, let alone a playoff series. On the other hand, Ben Francisco was a huge part of why the deal is a winner for the Phillies. Francisco provides a right-handed bat off the bench with power (10 HR) and versatility (can play both corner outfield positions), and will allow John Mayberry Jr. some more time to grow as an everyday player at a lower level, as he will most likely be optioned back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Francisco’s power from the right side of the plate, combined with Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs from the left side of the plate, gives the Phillies offensive flexibility, as if they needed it.

Acquiring Cliff Lee gives the Phillies an "ace" in the starting rotation
While the Phillies did get Cliff Lee, they did in fact give up a lot. Donald, the organizations third ranked prospect, and Marson, the organizations fourth ranked prospect, talent and maturity-wise are ready to play for Indians big league team right now. Also, both are projected to be above-average MLB players for ten years. Knapp had the highest ceiling of any Phillies prospect (more than Brown, Taylor or Drabek), and still has so much room to grow as a teenager. Carrasco, the wildcard in this, is still considered a top of the rotation starter by the Indians after struggling this season. The truth of the matter is that he’s allowed to struggle, he’s 22 years old, people seem to forget that, though the Indians obviously didn’t.
The truth is though, if the Phillies were to give up any of the highly regarded prospects, these were the ones they wanted to give up. It’s nothing against the four of them, it just seems like they made the pieces of the puzzle fit perfectly. Donald, behind Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley for another five years, would just be a career backup for the Phillies and would have no value and diminished skill when Rollins and Utley are past their prime. Marson, probably the most costly of the departed, was viewed as the catcher of the future for Cleveland, as they are also shopping Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach. He was the huge centerpiece of the trade. Knapp, the other centerpiece of the trade, is at least three years away from making an impact at the big league level, which conflicts with the Phillies three-five year window to win another World Series. Lastly, Carrasco, while highly regarded, struggled in Triple-A and was upset at the organization in June when they promoted fellow Triple-A teammate Antonio Bastardo instead of him to replace Brett Myers in Philadephia. A change of scenery was probably the best scenario for Carrasco.
With all that said, it was worth it. By trading for Cliff Lee instead of Roy Halladay, the Phillies retaining their top prospects in the organization while keeping their entire big league nucleus intact. That seems like a good combination for success.
Or so we hope.